April 8, 2008

1. Matt Ryan - Boston College 6-5/215

I believe Matt Ryan is a franchise QB, but not in the way we usually use that term. He's not a great athlete, he's not a huge sturdy pocket passer, and he doesn't have a rocket arm. What makes him a franchise QB is his willingness to take responsibility and lead on the field and off the field, and his complete command of the offense. Five receivers had more than 40 catches for BC - that tells you that Ryan lets the defense decide who he is going to throw to - a la Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. The other hallmark of Ryan's game that I love is that he often puts the ball in the perfect spot for run after catch yards. He's not just trying to complete the pass, he's always trying to make a perfect pass.

Ryan is also more athletic than he's given credit for, making things happen on the move and keeping plays alive outside of the pocket. He has outstanding field vision (especially on the run), and does a great job reading the defense pre-snap. His interceptions are a sticking point for some, and I'll admit that he will go through a period of discovering what will and will not work in the pros - but the underlying positive here is that Ryan is a positive thinking QB who tests defenses and is willing to throw the ball into small windows. He's also tough as nails. I would feel completely comfortable handing the keys to my franchise to Matt Ryan.

2. Brian Brohm - Louisville 6-4/224

Brohm is getting a bum rap, and he might slide to the late first or even (very) early second, but he'll be a solid NFL QB at worst. His reaction to pressure is not great, and even though he had a nicer 40 time than people were expecting, he's not the kind of QB who will create outside of the pocket, and he's not good at escaping pressure. He also lets pressure rattle him. All in all, he looks a lot like Peyton Manning when he's under duress. He's also not a fiery leader, and will remind some of the other Manning brother QBing in the NFL in this respect. On the other hand, in this class only Matt Ryan can claim to have the kind of "coach on the field" command of the offense Brohm has. While he doesn't have a great arm, he places the ball very well with what I like to call "eerie accuracy". I like to see QBs trusting their mechanics and letting it fly, as opposed to aiming and throwing at a spot. When Brohm is on, he drops the ball into perfect spots, and sees the whole field in an instant. In some ways, it's better for Brohm to go to a winning team and patiently wait than be anointed as the savior - he might not be able to singlehandedly lift a franchise, but he could make an already solid offense an elite one.

3. Josh Johnson - San Diego 6-3/200

The biggest questions about Josh Johnson are his level of competition and his more slight WR-ish frame. As far as level of competition goes, I don't think it's any bigger of a deal than it is for Joe Flacco, and yet he could be a late first rounder and almost seems like a lock to go top 50 right now. Johnson is also an extremely cerebral quarterback, and he came up under Jim Harbaugh, so that should offset some of those concerns. The slight frame will keep him from being a sturdy pocket passer, but he's better suited for a WCO anyway. He's got great mechanics, and as long as he generates more power from his lower body, he'll be just fine. If you want to see him for yourself, check out our profile of Josh on Draftguys TV.

4. Chad Henne - Michigan 6-2/224

My scouting report on Chad Henne isn't that much different than the one I had on Brady Quinn last year. In a nutshell, great when the play goes as planned, but lacking when he needs to go off script or deal with adversity. He's strong on his 3,5, and 7 step drops and can really look good hitting WRs in stride over the middle. He's also surprisingly athletic. I don't know, maybe we need to give him a pass on his 2007, because he was hurt, and also because his 2008 has been magnificent so far. I wouldn't be shocked to see him sneak into the late first, and maybe even go before Brohm, but I have my doubts because of his unexplainable errant passes and his Ofer vs. tOSU.

5. Joe Flacco - Delaware 6-6/230

Flacco could easily end up being the best QB in this class. There's no denying that his ball leaves a vapor trail, and the moment he's drafted he'll have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. He's also got ideal NFL size. There are moments that he looks like a top 10 pick, recognizing a WR coming open downfield and delivering the ball on a rope like he's a video game QB. I am still not sold on Flacco for many reasons, particularly the fact that he decided to go down a level when his path was blocked by Tyler Palko, he wasn't a team captain, and the offense in Delaware seemed to be Omar Cuff's as much as it was Flacco's - as opposed to Josh Johnson, who utterly dominated the way you would expect a future NFL QB to at the FCS level. There's no doubt that Flacco has the arm to carve up NFL defenses, but we'll see whether he's got the spirit and will to do it.

6. Andre' Woodson - Kentucky 6-5/230

Poor Andre has been taking a beating in the postseason now that everyone is looking at his game through the lens of how it will translate to the NFL. His delivery is deliberate and his ball seems to float instead of zip, but it does translate to a beautiful deep ball. Some thought of him as a first rounder at this time last year, he'll be lucky to get in the second now. Still, he's got ideal NFL size and Woodson is athletic and competitive. He's gotten some great experience against SEC defenses that feature a lot of future NFL players, and he's also helped the Kentucky program up their stature. He should at least be a solid backup in the pros.

7. Dennis Dixon - Oregon 6-4/196

People might not be talking about it, but I think Dixon is starting rise up NFL draft boards again. He's working out and showing teams the status of his knee, and they have to be intrigued by adding a weapon like Dixon. He's still early in his QB development, having spent some time pursuing a baseball career and playing in the spread offense, but Dixon has still shown terrific playmaking instincts and he put defenses on their heels. It's difficult to project him in the NFL because so few of the throws and decisions he made at Oregon are the kinds he will have to make in the pros, but Dixon has shown excellent touch on long passes and he just seems like a heady QB. Im not sure what his 40 time would be, but he plays like a 4.4/4.5 guy in pads, and that also means he could be a high upside WR prospect. I wouldn't fault a team for taking him as high as the 4th round.

8. John David Booty - Southern Cal 6-3/215

It's hard to get excited about a guy like Booty because he'll only be an adequate starter in a dumbed down offense or a very good backup. That is a bigger deal that I make it sound, because he's got a high floor, and would be an upgrade at backup QB for a lot of teams, but watching the illusion that he was a good pro prospect disappear when Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett left for the pros cinched that Booty is not the kind of QB I would advocate spending a pick on. Guys like Matt Moore are out there to groom as solid backups who can start in a pinch, I prefer QBs who could become at least above average starters, even if the odds are long.

9. Erik Ainge - Tennessee 6-6/220

Like Henne, maybe I should not be so harsh on Ainge because he was hurt this year, and he's got a lot of experience in big time college football. Also, like Matt Ryan, he didn't have any playmakers to throw to (although he did have a grind it out RB in Arian Foster). When I watch Ainge, I see a QB that is a beat slow in his footwork and delivery, and a guy who's not that courageous in the pocket. I think his pro career will go a lot like his college career - flashes here and there, but overall, a mediocre QB who frustrates.

10. Kevin O'Connell - San Diego State 6-6/225

O'Connell is blessed with Flacco's size, but he doesn't have Flacco's arm, so he's not nearly as highly regarded. He's one of the most athletic QBs in this class, and he can throw well on the run, so if a team can develop his classic dropback passer game, there could be something there. O'Connell did not impress at all in Shrine Game practices, and he was next to QBs that are even lower on this list, but that is admittedly a small sample size.

11. Colt Brennan - Hawaii 6-3/205

If Colt's slight frame and funky delivery weren't enough, his recent surgery is sure to scare a lot of teams off. He's still worth a late pick because of his production and loads of experience getting it done on the field. He could still be a solid backup in a WCO offense or similar system.

12. Paul Smith - Tulsa 6-2/193

Smith is a scrapper who could be another Jeff Garcia type in time - overcoming a lack of size and arm strength with an aggressive mindset. I got to talk to him at the Shrine Game and he definitely has a "can do" attitude.

13. Bernard Morris - Marshall 6-4/212

Like O'Connell, Morris is a great athlete, and with a little more bulk, he'll have a quality NFL QB frame. He's also got the requisite arm strength, but his accuracy is a work in progress. He could also be an interesting WR convert if it doesn't work out at QB.

14. Anthony Morelli - Penn State 6-4/232

Some PSU fans never want to hear Morelli's name again, but he's got NFL arm strength and NFL size, so some team will try to develop him. Less bitter PSU fans wonder if he was undercoached in Happy Valley. You can check out his profile at Draftguys TV.

15. Sam Keller - Nebraska 6-4/230

Keller is another QB who has languished in college after hitting the scene with a lot of hoopla - who also is profiled at Draftguys TV. We've seen Keller the gunslinger at ASU, only to watch him get run out of town by Rudy Carpenter. Then we saw "Captain Checkdown" at Nebraska and at the Shrine Game. Like Morelli, a team should at least give him a chance on the scout team/practice squad before we close the book on his NFL future.