
**Tell "Cowher's Chin" exactly what you think of his mock in EVILGRIN'S BIG TIME FIRST ROUND MOCK Discussion Thread**
This draft has a couple of assumptions. I'm going with what we know right now - e.g. Moss stays in Oakland, the current state of free agency - that sort of thing. No trades are projected. I'll do another next week where I go hog-wild with trade speculation, but for now, I'll keep it simple.
1. Oakland - Jamarcus Russell, QB - L.S.U.
Raiders still haven't moved Moss for Rodgers, so Russell is the pick unless that happens. They passed on Rivers and Roethlisberger, they won't make that mistake again. Quinn is a possibility here, but the Raiders love the vertical passing game and Russell's arm is as strong as it gets.
2. Detroit - Brady Quinn, QB - Notre Dame
Joe Thomas and Gaines Adams are possibilities here, as is a trade down. If Detroit stays put, I don't see how they pass on Quinn, who has the pedigree teams look for in a top pick. Perfect situation where he can learn the offense from Kitna and start next season. Plus, Quinn's bust potential makes him a natural fit for a Matt Millen selection.
3. Cleveland - Adrian Peterson, RB - Oklahoma
Thomas again looms as a possibility, but I don't think for one second that the Browns are looking at Jamal Lewis as the future at RB. Peterson is a prototype NFL back, with an unmatched size/speed combo in this draft and the type of player the Browns can build around until he slips on a banana peel in the cafeteria, blows out his ACL, and sets the franchise back another 5 years.
4. Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson, WR - Georgia Tech
Not Tampa's biggest need by any stretch, but they simply cannot pass up this manchild. The best WR prospect the draft has seen in years, he can single-handedly change an offense. Simply the best player in this draft, and could have gone #1 overall in a number of other years. A steal for the Bucs at #4.
5. Arizona - Joe Thomas, OT - Wisconsin
A no-brainer.. the best OT by far falls to the team with the most gaping need at the position. If Thomas makes it to #5, the Cardinals might hire David Blaine to try to make the card just appear in Goodell's hand, rather than having him wait for them to walk it over to him.
6. Washington - Gaines Adams, DE - Clemson
Washington may well trade this pick to Chicago, as it's clear Snyder values draft picks in the same way that Otis values chastity. However, I suspect that the deal will not materialize, as Chicago is holding out for more and the Skins have made it clear they’re not willing to part with Macintosh and #6 for Briggs and #31. Washington had a humiliating 19 sacks all last season and Adams is the best pure pass rusher in this draft.
7. Minnesota - Ted Ginn, WR - The Ohio State University
OK, the first blatant reach of the draft. I still think Minnesota may trade out of this spot unless Brady Quinn is there, and they also may take a long look at Levi Brown, Jamal Anderson, LaRon Landry or Leon Hall. Their biggest need is at receiver, though, and if Ginn is fully healed and runs a 4.30 40 when he works out, which I believe he can, the Vikes may not be able to pass up his game breaking ability. He's one of 2-3 players in this draft that can single-handedly win a game with his athleticism. Of course, if his workout doesn't go well, or he pulls up lame, I will revise this in my final mock. Of course, if they do go this way, they may time themselves out a few times so they can pay him less.
8. Atlanta (from HOU) - Laron Landry, SS - L.S.U.
I'd etch this one in stone. If Landry is there when Atlanta picks, they'll take him. They have a glaring need at safety, and Landry is one of the best to come along in a few years. The guy is an all-around player - flies to the ball, huge hitter, can play both the pass and the run - he's the rare rookie who can start in his first year.
9. Miami - Levi Brown, OT - Penn State
Personally, I think Levi is being a touch overrated due to positions scarcity, but it's just that circumstance that likely puts him in Miami. Having added Joey "Manos de Piedra" Porter to shore up the defense, Miami turns its attention to a lineman that can protect Culpepper's blind side. Brown and Vernon Carey give Miami two big tackles, and Brown's run blocking will mean better holes for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, who thinks Canadian weed sucks .
10. Houston (from ATL) - Amobi Okoye, DT - Louisville
This team has so many needs - and safety and OT are high among them. However, with Landry and Brown going just before their slot (hope Schaub pans out, guys) - Okoye becomes a logical pick. Houston is switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and will need a tackle, probably more than one. Okoye has passed Alan Branch in the minds of many scouts, and at only 19 years old, his upside potential is gigantic.
11. San Francisco - Alan Branch, DT - Michigan
Which means Branch goes to San Francisco. I've seen most mocks projecting Patrick Willis or a wideout here, both of which fill needs, but I don’t see LB as the need DT is, nor is there a receiver available that I think they'll find irresistible at this spot, given that a Sidney Rice or Steve Smith could be there for them in round 2. Nolan hired Greg Manusky to implement the 3-4, the key to which is a dominant NT. Sopoaga is not the answer, but Branch very well could be. I think he's ideally suited to play nose, although many have hinted he could play 3-4 end, but to me his greatest attribute is his strength and athleticism, which enable him to nullify multiple blockers. In other words, exactly what a great NT does.
12. Buffalo - Marshawn Lynch, RB - California
Patrick Willis and Leon Hall get a looooong look here, but in the end, I think Buffalo jumps at the chance to replace the departed Willis McGahee with a back with prototypical size and 4.45 speed. This is a very thin draft at RB, and if Buffalo doesn't take Lynch here, they're not likely to find a guy who can be effective for them right away, and the A-Train runs like he's dragging a homeless guy down the tracks. 3.5 ypc ain't going to keep defenses honest when you also lack a top #2 WR to keep teams off of Lee Evans.
13. St. Louis - Jamaal Anderson, DE - Arkansas
I think St. Louis needs front line help terribly, and Anderson's monster senior season has teams salivating. The Rams mustered less than 2 sacks per game, so a versatile end like Anderson can combine with Leonard Little to make a fearsome pass rush duo. After allowing almost 5 ypc last year, St. Louis desperately has to figure out how to stop runs, and Anderson could be the Immodium tablet they need.
14. Carolina - Patrick Willis, LB - Ole Miss
He played ILB in college, but can easily shift to the outside in the NFL, which is where Carolina will likely want to play him. If he's still here at this pick, I think Carolina goes with his phenomenal size/speed combo over the heady, but less versatile Paul Posluszny. Willis' Pro Day 40 times convinced onlookers he has the speed to rush the passer, play in coverage, or cover backs. Also a big-time character guy. I'd love to see him go to Pittsburgh, but I think my heart gets broken here. F'n Panthers.
15. Pittsburgh - Adam Carriker, DT - Nebraska
Steelers can go a lot of different ways here, and this pick may change with my next mock. I think they're looking at LB here (and Posluszny may very well be the pick) but Paul doesn't fit well into the 3-4 scheme as a linebacker, and all indications are that they will stick to that scheme for the near future at least. Thus, there has been talk of moving Brett Keisel to OLB, which would leave a spot wide open at RDE for this prototype 3-4 end. In addition, if they do gravitate towards the 4-3 going forward, Carriker is seen by many as a good fit as a 4-3 DT, of which the Steelers don't have many.
16. Green Bay - Leon Hall, CB - Michigan
Hall may well go higher than this, but only San Francisco, Buffalo, and maybe Pittsburgh have serious CB needs. I think the Pack may have taken Lynch had he fallen here, but instead they settle for filling their biggest need, secondary, with the best CB on the board. I gotta take a dump, I'll be right back.p>
17. Jacksonville - Reggie Nelson, FS - Florida
Phew, that's better. OK, so Jacksonville, eh. They'll probably look hard at Posluszny and Timmons here, but their most glaring need is at safety, with the departure of Deon Grant. The local kid makes too much sense not to project here. Nelson has speed that lead some to believe he could play corner in a pinch, and the opportunity to pair Nelson with Rashean Mathis will be tantalizing for the Jags' brass..
18. Cincinnati - Greg Olsen, TE - Miami, FL
Cincy also has needs at LB, but why take a character guy like Posluszny that would go in that locker room like oil in water, when you can get a guy like Olsen who transferred from Notre Dame to Miami? He'll fit in much better with the culture of this team, and also provide Carson "I Love K-Fed" Palmer with an obscene amount of weapons offensively. This guy can stretch the field and catches everything.
19. Tennessee - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Hunch pick here. They may go secondary if the NFL proves to be Inky to their starting corner's Pac Man, but a bag full of ones says they want to try to appease Norm Chow after passing on Leinart for Young a year ago. Jarrett ran a good enough 40 to be a first round pick with his size and remarkable hands, and he already knows Chow's offense. He's probably the best suited of this receiver class to make an impact right away in Tennessee, and they need it.
20. N.Y. Giants - Darrelle Revis, CB - Pittsburgh
CB is their #1 priority, and it's not many drafts where you can grab the consensus #2 guy in the 20s. Plus, it'll make it two years in a row that they went after someone from Pittsburgh when they pursue Coach Cowher next offseason. Coughlin is comparing himself to Hitler in the press recently, which is a strong PR move for a guy working the final year of his deal. Anyway, I digress. Revis has legit 4.4 speed and is probably the second best cover guy in this draft behind Leon Hall. He can also return kicks.
21. Denver - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
Moss could go a few picks higher to Pittsburgh if they’re looking for a guy that can replace Porter at 3-4 OLB and also play 4-3 DE, but if not, I think he lands here. Denver's primary concern is generating a better pass rush and Moss is about as well equipped to that as anyone in this draft. At almost 6' 7", he can easily stand to increase his bulk, and a few months in an NFL weight room will probably have him playing in the 270s next year.
22. Dallas - Aaron Ross, CB - Texas
Dallas needs to finally fill the FS spot next to Roy Williams, but with the top safeties off the board, my guess is they go with the rumored plan to move Anthony Henry to FS and select local product Ross to fill the other starting CB slot. Ross is a late comer due to being buried on a very deep Texas depth chart, but he really came on this year and won the Thorpe award in his only season as a starter. Has a world of potential, and seems to be a logical choice for the Cowboys. Plus, T.O. can try to destroy his confidence completely in the preseason.
23. Kansas City - Dwayne Bowe, WR - L.S.U.
Kansas City needs a receiver - what else is new? Luckily for them, this happens to be a very receiver-rich draft and a guy like Bowe is around at #23. Bowe has terrific upside and was the talk of Senior Bowl week with his impressive displays of athleticism, body control, and hands (which were an issue going into the offseason.) Meachem and Sidney Rice will be looked at here as well, and really it's a matter of who the personnel guys like best, so Bowe is just a guess here.
24. New England(from SEA) - Paul Posluszny, LB - Penn State
This one's so easy it's like stealing if PP is still available at #24. Posluszny is a Patriots kind of guy for one, and fills a need at LB as well. That's all I'm going to write about this because I'm sick of typing that last name.
25. N.Y. Jets - Chris Houston, CB - Arkansas
Houston's vast upside is going to prevent him from dropping any farther than this. His stellar 40 time backed up what many scouts are seeing on tape, namely Houston shutting down most of the name receivers in this draft when they met in college. The Jets need a corner to pair with Dyson and Houston's upside will vault him over McCauley.
26. Philadelphia - Michael Griffin, SS - Texas
Could go WR very easily here, but with the signing of Curtis, I think they'll address that later and tend to the ailing secondary. Griffin projects to free safety ideally in the NFL, but did have 12 starts at strong safety in 2005, so he knows the position and could slot in well next to Dawkins. He's a hitter and can provide an immediate impact on special teams as well. Chicks dig him because he rarely wears underwear, and when he does, it's usually something exotic.
27. New Orleans - Lawrence Timmons, LB - Florida State
New Orleans is sure to go defense with this pick, but they need help on the line, at LB, and in the secondary. At this point, while McCauley, Eric Wright, Brandon Meriwether, and Justin Harrell may be options, I believe they'll go BDPA and take the fast, hard-hitting Timmons. Some think he's better than Ernie Sims, who was a top-10 pick last year. An upside guy for sure, and could start at the weakside spot sooner rather than later.
28. New England - Eric Weddle, S, Utah
Another hunch pick, as NFL teams may just decide that Weddle doesn't have the athleticism to play every down in the NFL and he could free-fall. However, he's an incredibly heady ball player who just seems like the kind of guy that would fit in New England like Andre the Giant would have fit at my family reunions. Plus, he possesses the versatility to play multiple spots in the secondary, which is really just what the doctor ordered for New England.
29. Baltimore - Joe Staley, OT - Central Michigan
I think they'll look at Justin Blalock here as well, but Blalock’s limited athleticism means he'll likely only be able to play guard in the NFL. I believe Baltimore’s more pressing need, aside from a uniform color other than purple, is at tackle, and Staley is a late-riser with terrific athleticism whom many believe is just scratching the surface of his potential. If he can bulk up and prove he can handle NFL bull rushers, he'll be a ten year starter, meaning he’ll be anchoring the Ravens' line long after Billick has retired.
30. San Diego - Robert Meachem, WR - Tennessee
San Diego may have more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball, meaning a guy like Meriwether or Beason could easily be the choice here, but they've need a top-notch receiver for so long that it seems difficult to imagine they'd pass up a guy like Meachem. With his size and speed, he has potential #1 WR written all over him, and to get a guy like that after a season in which you were minutes from the conference title game is an opportunity that doesn't come around every day.
31. Chicago - Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
If the Briggs situation doesn't resolve itself, I expect Beason from Miami to be taken here, but if Briggs is in a Bears uniform come September, as I imagine he may be, then their most pressing need is to shore up the OL. Grubbs has surpassed Blalock as the most coveted OG in the draft, and is a worthy choice at this spot. They could also draft Drew Stanton here, and while it would raise a few eyebrows, I don't think anyone would blame them.
32. Indianapolis - Jon Beason, OLB, Miami.
This is sure to be a defense pick, and with the departure of Cato June, it makes too much sense not to project this. He's too big and too fast not to get snapped up in the first 40 or so picks, and he could theoretically step right in for June.
