Breaking Down the Tape
Reviewing Top Tier RBs Eligible for the 2008 NFL Draft
I'd like to break down the tape of one top tier running back per week each of the next 12 weeks. I'll do this by watching one of their games and commenting on their play in that game, including fakes and blocking assignments, as well as their NFL prospects. My schedule for this feature is as follows:
Remaining Features: Ray Rice, Rutgers
Obviously all of the defenses these players play will not be equal, but I still think we can get a good approximation of the skill sets that each of these running backs will bring to the NFL. This list also could be affected by injuries to the players and I will try to juggle it to fit everyone in if that occurs.
Felix Jones - Jr. - Arkansas(5'11" 195)
Jersey:#25
Age on 9/1/2008: 21.33
My Pre-Season Rank: #4
My Current Rank: #6
Tony Nowak's Take:
In the shadow of McFadden and the institutional controversy at Arkansas last year, Felix Jones probably had the quietest 1K rushing season in the nation. The duo had the most rushing yards of any tandem in college football last year. A home run hitter, the yards piled up quickly despite limited touches because of his big play ability. Jones had three runs over 50 yards and a robust 7.6 average on 154 carries. He has tremendous upside as an elite kick returner, finishing second in the nation last season after being an All-American at return specialist as a true freshman in 2005. He had a 100-yard KO return each of his first two season. Both Jones and McFadden were held out of contact drills and the spring game as a precaution.
Stats (from ESPN):
| YEAR | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
| 2005 | 99 | 626 | 6.3 | 80 | 3 | 8 | 100 | 12.5 | 23 | 0 |
| 2006 | 154 | 1168 | 7.6 | 85 | 6 | 15 | 107 | 7.1 | 29 | 3 |
Breaking Down the Tape: November 23, 2007 at LSU
1st Play - 1st Quarter - 7:10 - 1st and 10 - Ark 34 - 0-0 - Run Block
McFadden is the QB and takes the direct snap; Jones is in the slot and heads downfield to block for McFadden before peeling off and looking for a pass; McFadden keeps the ball and gains a short amount
2nd Play - 1st Quarter - 5:54 - 3rd and 6 - Ark 38 - 0-3 - Run Right
McFadden at QB; Jones starts in the left slot and comes back toward McFadden at the snap; takes the handoff and goes wide right; a defender gets upfield and is unblocked waiting for him; Jones tries to cut back inside and makes a nice sharp cut, but there is too much traffic there and he goes down for a loss
3rd Play - 2nd Quarter - 15:00 - 2nd and 9 - Ark 33 - 0-6 - Run Right
Jones takes the handoff from deep in the backfield; starts heading for the middle and then darts to the outside; makes a quick cut upfield without gearing down much, but there are two defenders waiting for him; tries to put a small juke on the first defender but goes down on the spot
4th Play - 2nd Quarter - 14:22 - 3rd and 9 - Ark 33 - 0-6 - Pass Route
Jones comes out of the backfield and fakes a pass block before turning around for a screen pass; the pass is at his feet and not catchable
5th Play - 2nd Quarter - 9:52 - 2nd and 4 - Ark 36 - 0-6 - Run Fake
McFadden at QB, Jones in the left slot; Jones comes to him at the snap and the handoff is faked; Jones continues on and then pass blocks after the fake; nothing fancy but shows some effort; pass is incomplete long downfield
6th Play - 2nd Quarter - 9:44 - 3rd and 4 - Ark 36 - 0-6 - Run Middle
Jones takes the handoff from McFadden and heads up a large hole in the middle; shows very good acceleration to get through the hole into the 2nd level; shows some really nice speed outrunning a defender with an angle; shows some nice long vision here by setting up the pursuing defender with a shoulder juke and then turning back inside of a downfield block; defender eventually catches up with him and tackles him after a big game; very nice open field run
7th Play - 2nd Quarter - 7:47 - 1st and 10 - LSU 21 - 0-6 - Pass Catch
Jones split wide left; McFadden throws him a quick pass at the LOS; makes an easy catch while facing the QB, although he used his body more than he should have; defender is on him right away; he makes a quick stutter step inside and then heads to the sideline; does a nice job bodying up with the defender and gaining more yards as the defender pushes him out of bounds; nice to see him by physical there
8th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:09 - 1st and 15 - Ark 21 - 7-6 - Run Fake
McFadden is QB, fakes the ball to Jones and gives it to the other back; Jones doesn't fool anyone
9th Play - 2nd Quarter - 2:32 - 2nd and 14 - Ark 22 - 7-6 - Run Block
McFadden takes the snap, fakes to the other back and sweeps left with Jones as the lead blocker; Jones does a nice job exploding into the defender and knocking him back; he follows up well to complete the block and keep the defender away from McFadden; nice job
10th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:52 - 1st and 10 - Ark 26 - 7-6 - Run Fake
Jones is split wide right and goes to McFadden in the shotgun at the snap; ball is faked to Jones who goes to the far left and McFadden runs up the middle;
11th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:18 - 2nd and 5 - Ark 31 - 7-6 - Run Fake
Jones is split wide right and goes to McFadden in the shotgun at the snap; ball is faked to Jones who goes to the far left and McFadden runs up the middle;
12th Play - 3rd Quarter - 11:35 - 1st and 10 - Ark 20 - 7-6 - Run Left
Jones is split wide right and comes on a reverse at the snap; takes the handoff and continues on the sweep left; tries to cut it up inside and slips on the turf and goes down for a loss; not really his fault there
13th Play - 3rd Quarter - 10:37 - 1st and 10 - Ark 30 - 7-6 - Run Fake
Jones is again split wide right and comes across at the snap; this time the handoff is faked to him; he does an average job of continuing the fake and does try to come back to the middle of the field to block but gets there too late
14th Play - 3rd Quarter - 10:02 - 2nd and 14 - Ark 26 - 7-6 - Run Fake
Jones is in the slot left, comes across at the snap and the ball is faked to him; does a pretty nice job carrying out the fake; McFadden keeps the ball and goes 76 yards for the TD
15th Play - 3rd Quarter - 7:02 - 2nd and 7 - Ark 20 - 14-14 - Run Fake
Jones is the lone back in the I; handoff is faked to him, he does a nice job carrying out the fake; pass is completed downfield
16th Play - 3rd Quarter - 6:32 - 1st and 10 - Ark 32 - 14-14 - Run Right
Jones is the lone back in the I again; takes the handoff and heads right; not much of a hole but he gets to the line quickly and runs forward into traffic to get as much as he can; didn't bull anyone over like a more physical back would, but he did get what he could and didn't dance too much
17th Play - 3rd Quarter - 5:56 - 2nd and 7 - Ark 35 - 14-14 - Run Fake
Jones to the right of McFadden, goes behind him in a fake at the snap; just an average fake; Hillis (3rd RB) takes it 65 yards for a TD
18th Play - 3rd Quarter - 2:14 - 1st and 10 - Ark 29 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him; does an average job with the fake
19th Play - 3rd Quarter - 1:37 - 2nd and 10 - Ark 29 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he carries it out pretty well and continues down the field; Hillis gets through to the 2nd level with the carry and Jones makes a nice attempt at a block to help him
20th Play - 3rd Quarter - 0:56 - 3rd and 5 - Ark 34 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he carries it out pretty well and continues down the field
21st Play - 4th Quarter - 15:00 - 2nd and 8 - Ark 41 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he carries it out pretty well and continues down the field
22nd Play - 4th Quarter - 13:56 - 1st and 10 - LSU 49 - 21-21 - Run Left
Jones in the right slot, comes across at the snap; takes the handoff and heads to the left edge; makes a rounded cut upfield without gearing down as he sees a hole; makes a really nice stutter step move as one of his lineman comes into the backfield, slowing down to miss him; then cuts upfield but is swallowed up by a group of defenders; showed nice quickness to miss his lineman and lose some yards, but he's just not physical enough to run in tight spaces
23rd Play - 4th Quarter - 13:17 - 2nd and 8 - LSU 47 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he carries it out well
24th Play - 4th Quarter - 12:15 - 3rd and 18 - Ark 42 - 21-21 - Pass Route
Jones in the backfield; goes on a short curl route at the snap; pass is completed downfield
25th Play - 4th Quarter - 10:07 - 1st and 10 - Ark 30 - 21-21 - Run Fake
Jones in the left slot, comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he carries it out well
26th Play - 4th Quarter - 7:29 - 1st and 10 - Ark 28 - 21-21 - Run Block
Jones to the right of McFadden; at the snap he heads behind him and left to block on the sweep; does an excellent job exploding into the defender and getting good leverage; goes back for a second block and effectively takes his defender out of the play; very nice job
27th Play - 4th Quarter - 6:49 - 2nd and 3 - Ark 35 - 21-21 - Pass Block
Jones stays in to pass block; gets into position to help contain the pocket, but never needs to engage someone before the pass is thrown
28th Play - 4th Quarter - 6:42 - 3rd and 3 - Ark 35 - 21-21 - Run Left
Jones is wide to the right; at the snap he heads back toward the middle on the reverse; McFadden pitches him the ball and Jones goes wide right; he has a huge wall of blockers there and shows very good speed to eliminate the angle of a defender at the corner; he then continues downfield showing great speed and very good long vision setting up his running lanes to maximize his blockers before finally getting tackled 31 yards downfield; excellent example of Jones' strengths in terms of speed and long vision, but it pays to remember that it was on a misdirection play and he had a nice wall of blockers
29th Play - 4th Quarter - 0:20 - 3rd and 4 - LSU 46 - 28-28 - Run Fake
Jones is lined up in the left flank and comes across at the snap; ball is faked to him and he continues the fake to the right edge
And with that, regulation ends and the total time of the game hits 4 hours. Unfortunately, that's where my tape ends. So I missed the 3 overtimes. Here are his plays in the overtime:
1st: 1st and 10 at LSU 25 - Darren McFadden pass complete to Felix Jones for 5 yards to the LSU 20. (28-35)
2nd: 1st and 10 at LSU 25 - Felix Jones rush for 16 yards to the LSU 9 out-of-bounds for a 1ST down. (35-35)
3rd: 1st and 10 at LSU 25 - Felix Jones rush for 6 yards to the LSU 19. (42-42)
3rd: 3rd and 4 at LSU 19 - Felix Jones rush for 4 yards to the LSU 15 for a 1ST down. (42-42)
Two-point conversion attempt, Felix Jones rush GOOD. 50-42
Final Game Stats:
Jones had 9 carries for 85 yards and 0 TDs. That's a 9.4 yard per carry average with a long run of 31 yards. He also had 2 catches for 10 yards.
Play Chart Breakdown (Regulation):
29 Total Plays
7 Runs
15 Run Fakes
3 Run Blocks
1 Pass Blocks
2 Pass Routes
1 Pass Catches
Felix Jones Summary:
Felix Jones is a very good running back but I have some reservations about him in the NFL. The first issue I see is that he didn't run in tight spaces very much in college. Most of the plays in the Arkansas offense are misdirection plays in which Jones gets the ball in plenty of space. He does a good job in space with nice speed and acceleration as well as good long vision to set up blocks and cuts down the field. But there is risk involved when you don't see a running back run through traffic and in tight spaces much in college. The NFL has much less open space than college and although he may be fine in less space, I just can't be sure.
Another interesting point is his lack of touches. I did a study recently looking at the number of touches in their final college season of all running backs drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2000. Of the 54 backs that meet that criteria, Jones would have the second lowest number of touches per game in the study, higher only than Brian Leonard. Although there isn't conclusive evidence that fewer touches lead to poorer performance in the NFL, I think that a low number of touches leads to two problems. The first is that it's harder to evaluate a running back when he has fewer touches because there are fewer situations to watch and observe. A lot of scouts thought that Tony Hollings' 95 touches for Georgia Tech in 2002 marked him as a future NFL star. But such a limited body of work makes it difficult to reach deep conclusions about a back's strengths and weaknesses.
The second problem with a lack of touches is wondering why the back has so few touches. Of course, playing with a fantastic running back in Darren McFadden is going to limit touches for many running backs. But even playing alongside Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush in 2005, LenDale White had 37.5% of the team carries. Jones had 21.3% of Arkansas' carries in 2007.
The LSU game I reviewed above further highlighted this question as Arkansas fullback Peyton Hillis had more touches than Jones. He scored 2 touchdowns running and two receiving. The only time Jones got into the end zone was on the 2 point conversion at the end of the game. It begs the question why he had so few touches in such an important game.
When Jones does get the ball and does get in space he is very impressive. He has excellent acceleration although he's not at McFadden's level. He has the vision to make some nice moves without gearing down and he does an excellent job setting up the defenders and blockers downfield.
I think Jones will be a good NFL back but I think there's more risk than with some other backs in the same range so I've moved him down a couple of spots. It's possible that he'll be the best back in the class, so if you like risk and upside, I think he's your man. But I prefer more certainty in an early draft choice.
Rating System: Jones would be a 2B in the rating system if taken in the first 2 rounds, or a 2C if taken in rounds 3 or 4.
