January 17, 2008

In a few simple syllables, we can explore the realm of someone being overrated by labeling them as under-evaluated, hyped up, or overestimated. Each year, we see guys that were first round prospects in early mock drafts that fall towards the end of the first day or second day of the draft. It happens every year but we seem to never learn our lesson.

Just look at current Miami Dolphins WR Derek Hagan. After a stellar career with the Sun Devils, where he still is the Pac-10 career receptions record holder, Hagan was projected to be a first round pick by the majority of mock draft experts as early as December of 2005. After a dismal showing at the Senior Bowl, Hagan's stock dropped tremendously like the footballs thrown his way. In the 2006 draft, he was eventually selected in the third round by the Dolphins (questionable in nature, yes).

Just ahead are a few overrated prospects that still sit high on the majority of draft boards. I for one am not a proponent of bashing any amateur who is trying to make a career out of being a professional athlete, but I have no problems with exposing their flaws. In my time of covering college and professional athletes, some overrated prospects are like dandelions, easy to weed out. Other prospects can be workout warriors but are overrated or good skill position guys without the tenacity to make it on the next level. As expected, you will not see a list of seventh round prospects on here, instead you will get your typical, popular prospects that you are being told are top prospects by other media outlets.

DE Quentin Groves, Auburn

Quentin Groves is a fifth year senior who regressed in his last year with the Auburn Tigers. After piling up 9.5 sacks as a junior in 2006, Groves disappointed with just 3.5 as a senior. Realistically, Groves will be labeled as a workout warrior but he did become Auburn's all-time sack leader. He lacks explosiveness but is a reliable tackler. He doesn't have ideal size but gets the job done while in pursuit.

Groves is the typical "Derek Hagan" like prospect that will see his stock slide all the way through April. He may have his agent whispering in his ear that he will be a first round prospect but he was too inefficient as a senior and was even moved to linebacker at times. Notably, Groves is better suited for a 3-4 defense. He may show up at the combine and come close to running a forty time under 4.6 but, unfortunately, scouts may see him as damaged goods.

Finally, Groves instincts are lackluster and he needs to work on his technique. At 6'3" 254 lbs, he may be better suited to be a linebacker on the next level but if he wasn't explosive off of the line, how can one expect him to be even more explosive from a linebacker's vantage point? Look for him to get drafted in the second round or possible fall into the third round this April.

CB Justin King, Penn State

Let me be clear that Justin King may have actually made a wise decision by leaving Penn State early. I really am not fond of the fact that King is a possible first round selection but he will get the opportunity to refine his technique on the next level. He was able to snag 2 interceptions and bat down 15 passes as a junior but against top-flight talent, he was handled easily, especially in isolation.

While watching King play, it is hard not to notice the similarities between him and other Penn State cornerbacks that have struggled in the NFL. His technique is eerily similar to Saints CB Anwar Phillips (undrafted in 2006). Despite having good timed speed, King may struggle in a cover-2 defense because he does not combat wide-outs well at the line of scrimmage.

At the end of the day, King may end up paying off on the next level, but it won't be immediately. If he can get the proper tutoring, there is no reason why anyone would think he won't be an every game starter. On the other hand, King will not return with the results expected from him as a first or second round draft pick. Similar to Antrel Rolle from Arizona, it may take time for King to develop into the player that scouts think he can be.

RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia

If any prospect deserves praise for what he did on Saturday's, it is RB Steve Slaton but performing well on the collegiate level does not mean that he will be a star on Sunday's. After a 2007 season riddled with inconsistency and a head coaching change, Slaton ended up coming out early for the draft. He barely broke the 1,000-yards barrier but proved to be reliable as a receiver in the spread offense.

He has a small frame at what might be an exaggerated 5'10" 190 lbs, but having that kind of size doesn't mean he won't pan out (see Warrick Dunn). Slaton's could also mean that he may get overwhelmed with the physicality of the NFL level. He also failed to show up at times, rushing for less than 73 yards in seven games this year. Outside of the month of September, Slaton only had two 100-yard games.

Slaton has an incredible burst but you have to question his vision. He never had to really run between the tackles due to the spread offense and a monstrous offensive line. He also breaks down during games as his rushing yards average decreases through every quarter. Slaton also averages just 2.45 yards per carry in red zone situations. Slaton may end up being a solid change of pace or third down back, but at the end of the day, he won't live up to the hype surrounding him as a second round selection.

OT Sam Baker, USC

Sam Baker comes from a great pedigree as his brother was an offensive lineman for Duke and his father is the commissioner of the Arena Football League. Regardless, Baker may end up being full of hype. Despite blocking for some of the best running backs in the nation, this Trojan will need to get stronger for play on Sunday's.

He does use his hands well and is quick but he will not overpower anyone in run blocking. He has been stood up a time or two on the collegiate level and will have to work on his technique as a professional. As for being a consensus first round draft pick by almost all media outlets, I am not sure if he is worthy of that designation despite placing him as a first rounder in my own mock drafts. Baker has had some durability concerns to go along with the question marks surrounding his tenacity.

Finally, Baker is more of a finesse blocker that will need to elevate to live up to his first round status in the NFL. Baker does have ideal size to warrant the attention of scouts. He maintains his balance well and controls defenders from attacking the quarterbacks blind side. Sam Baker is full of potential, has plenty of experience, but could end up being another first round bust at offensive tackle if he doesn't strengthen up and learn to have a stronger presence in run blocking.