April 16, 2008

For the record, this 1st round mock reflects what I think the teams WILL do, not what I think they SHOULD do. And yes, I am projecting trades I think could happen.

This has been simmering for a couple of days now. A pinch of nutmeg here, a touch of oregano there. A healthy dash of eye of newt. And now, like Yoda offering a pot of rat stew to Luke Skywalker, here is the official 2008 mock, Star Wars edition. Each pick features a quote from the original Star Wars film, describing the player being picked, the state of the franchise, or the mindset of the fans. Please, enjoy.

1 Miami Jake Long, OT, Michigan

"If money is all that you love, then that's what you'll receive." - Leia

This one's all about the negotiating. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Long is the pick here, but the rub now is to negotiate a contract that pays Long less than what JaMarcus Russell received last year. Ego will get in the way, but in the long run, Long will realize he stands to make more as the #1 pick without the traditional yearly raise than he does as the #2,3, or 5 pick.

2 St. Louis Chris Long, DE, Virginia

"The Force is strong with this one." - Vader

Much like Luke, Chris Long has the pedigree to be great. Of course, while Luke's dad Vader was once an annoying kid who grew up to be a helmet-wearing maniac for an evil Empire who chokes people at the drop of a hat, Chris dad Howie Long was (probably) an annoying kid who grew up to be a helmet-wearing maniac for an evil empire who pitches products at the drop of a hat. Long's non-stop motor and pass-rushing skills are just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis, who needs D-line help in the worst way. This pick can only go one of two ways draft Long and keep Carriker inside or draft Dorsey and move Carriker back to end. I think they go with the safer pick.

3 Atlanta Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

"We seem to be made to suffer. It's our lot in life." - C-3PO

Atlanta fans have to be wondering what the hell is going on. Their $100 million man is sitting in prison for dogfighting, they have question marks at QB, WR, on both lines, in the defensive backfield?. good Lord. It's a DAMN good thing this team has a boatload of draft picks, because they need to reload this team badly. Personally, I think there's going to be a lot of talk about Matt Ryan here, but when all is said and done, they'll do the wise thing and get the stop-gap at tackle. Dorsey is a difference maker, and they have the ammo to move up and get a QB towards the end of the round. Yes, that is foreshadowing.

4 Oakland Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St.

"Who's the more foolish? The fool, or the fool who follows him?" Obi-Wan

Yes, Al Davis is probably insane. Yes, this team is a mess. However, they're on the brink of building something special defensively. They already added DeAngelo Hall to what was one of the NFL's better defenses, and Davis won't be able to pass up a specimen like Gholston to provide an edge rusher to the investments he's made at DT and CB. With Kelly moving inside in the wake of his monster deal, and with two blazing fast corners capable of playing man, all the Raiders need is someone to consistently get to the QB. I know people are expecting McFadden here, but I think the Raiders are secretly high on injured RB Michael Bush.

***** TRADE ALERT *****

Baltimore, panicking that either the Chiefs or someone trading up into New England's spot is going to deny them their QB of the future, sends picks #8 and #38 to Kansas City in return for picks #5, #66, and #105.

5 Baltimore (from KC) Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

"Good against remotes is one thing. Good against the living? That's something else." - Han Solo

Ryan's stock has soared in the offseason and during the combine/Pro Day process to where he's now the clear-cut #1 choice at QB. However, it wasn't long ago that Brian Brohm and Andre Woodson were considered better choices and Ryan's going to have to prove on the field that he can be a franchise QB. I have my doubts, but with the amount of money that gets thrown to these top picks, a QB always goes high, because it's one of a couple of positions that teams can justify spending that kind of money on. Of course, since he's going to Baltimore here, I hope he sucks.

6 New York Jets Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

"She'll make point 5 past light speed" - Han Solo

McFadden's 4.31 run at the combine made him a lead-pipe lock for the top-10, and even though RB is not a huge need for the Jets, with Gholston off the board at #4, I think Mangini and company go for the best available talent. Thomas Jones is a capable back, but not a superstar, and Minnesota showed last year that having one capable back doesn't mean you don't draft a potential monster when the opportunity arises.

***** TRADE ALERT *****

That's right, not one but TWO trades within the top 10. Sound far-fetched? Maybe so, but I think they're both entirely possible. Here, New England looks to move down as they often due, for future consideration and to recoup the pick the NFL penalized them. The guy they want will very likely be there a few picks later, so they trade with a team that has never been afraid to move up for the guy they want, and always seems to have a surprise up its sleeve on draft day. New England gives pick #7 to Denver in exchange for pick #12, pick #108 and Denver's 2009 2nd round selection.

7 Denver (from NE) Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

"Until this battle station is fully operational, we are vulnerable" - General Tagge

Denver surprises everyone by moving up here, but not for the guy most people would have expected them to take. Jumping ahead of KC would seem to signal Ryan Clady, but the Broncos also have a need at DT and Ellis is an elite talent who would never have dropped past Cincinnati at #9. The Broncos make this trade while holding onto their second-round pick, at which point they can grab Sam Baker (ideal for their zone blocking scheme.) The drop off at DT from Ellis to whoever might be around in round 2 is greater than it would be at OT.

8 Kansas City (from Baltimore) Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

"Easy? You call that easy?"- Han Solo

Yes, I do. This would be an absolute no-brainer pick. The Chiefs probably collectively had a heart attack when Denver moved ahead of them, but sighed with relief when they realized their guy is still on the board. Clady is a big, athletic LT prospect and is just what the doctor ordered for the KC line, and for Larry Johnson, to whom they're committed in the running game with a large cap figure.

9 Cincinnati Keith Rivers, LB, USC

"We're wanted men! I have the death sentence on twelve systems!" - Dr. Evazan

The Bengals had to have had their hearts set on Sedrick Ellis, and are going to have to settle for this consolation prize, the draft's best pure LB. A WR is a possibility here with the exile of Chris Henry, but there really aren't any wideouts worthy of a top-10 selection, IMO. Of course, this being the Bengals, the odds are currently even money that Rivers shoots up and picks up a transgendered prostitute, stuffs him in his trunk and drives off a bridge within 7 days of being selected.

10 New Orleans Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

"That's the idea. I've been looking forward to this for a long time" - Greedo

New Orleans has tried just about everything to fix a patchwork secondary besides actually drafting a top corner. Here, they have the rare opportunity to grab the #1 guy at the position. McKelvin has perfect size/speed numbers and gets the nod over Rodgers-Cromartie due to his lethal return skills, second in this draft only to diminutive DeSean Jackson.

11 Buffalo Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

"I'm taking an awful risk, Vader. This had better work." - Grand Moff Tarkin

Buffalo could use a WR to complement Lee Evans and a CB to replace the long-since departed Antoine Winfield, but they take a chance on securing quality at those spots in the later rounds and grab the pass-rusher from Florida. A quality end that can pressure the QB is in shorter supply than receivers or corners in this draft, and Harvey is a guy many feel may actually be the 2nd best end in this draft behind Chris Long. This is a situation in which quality usurps need, though Buffalo could definitely use another guy who can pressure the opposing QB.

12 New England (from Denver) Branden Albert, G, Virginia

"You can't win Darth. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine." = Obi-Wan

There's no sinking the Patriots. In a case of the rich getting richer, the Patriots grab the most versatile OL in the draft to add athleticism to a line that was exposed in the playoffs and Super Bowl last year. A CB or LB are distinct possibilities here, but the patriots have historically shown disdain towards drafting those positions this early, preferring to find solutions later in the draft or in free agency, while using high picks on the lines.

13 Carolina Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

"It'll be like old times, Luke. They'll never stop us." - Biggs

Carolina's got to feel like they can vault back into contention sooner rather than later. An ill-timed injury to Jake Delhomme showed the error of their ways in trusting the franchise to back-up David Carr. With a healthy Delhomme and a devastating weapon in Steve Smith, the Panthers can hang with anyone if they can block. Moving Gross back to the right side and Wharton inside to guard becomes possible with the addition of the athletic Williams, who is clearly a LT prospect. They're only a couple years removed from being an NFC power and can get back in a hurry if they stay healthy.

14 Chicago Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

"These aren't the droids you're looking for" - Obi-Wan

Despite the fact that Rex Grossman and Cedric Benson rank in popularity somewhere between George Bush and syphilis right now in the Chicago area, the team would be wise to tune out the fan base clamoring for a replacement at one of those spots and look to fix an OL which isn't doing either any favors. Otah may have the highest upside of any tackle prospect in this draft, and while raw, could potentially be an All-Pro LT with his rare blend of enormous size and sheer athleticism.

15 Detroit Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

"It's just a pl0y to motivate Tatum Bell" - Red Three

Don't recall that quote from Star Wars? Me either. However, after having released Kevin Jones, the Lions can't possibly be too excited about the detritus they have remaining at the RB spot. Both Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett have shown repeatedly that they don't have what it takes to carry an offense, and Mendenhall is the type of every-down back that could solve their ills at the position for years. Matt Millen's propensity to draft skill guys carries Mendenhall to #15.

16 Arizona Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

"I'm not such a bad pilot myself" - Luke

DRC couldn't have come along at a better time. With his cousin blowing up in San Diego, and a set of terrific measurables at the combine, Cromartie has seen his draft stock soar, despite being a small-school prospect. I think Mendenhall might have been the pick here if Detroit hadn't grabbed him, as Edgerrin James isn't getting any younger and Whisenhunt and crew would love to balance the offense, but Arizona has a hole at CB if they move Rolle to safety, and the chance to nab the guy some feel is the draft's best corner prospect is too much to pass up.

17 Minnesota Philip Merling, DE, Clemson

"Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope."

A position that was a major need has become a gaping hole when Kenechi Udeze was diagnosed with cancer. Having (wisely, in retrospect) passed on a defensive end last year to nab rookie sensation Adrian Peterson, the lack of a pass rush can simply no longer be ignored. If the Vikings can generate any pressure, they become clearly the team to beat in the wide-open NFC North, and Merling is a complete end, with terrific potential. This is a no-brainer pick in my opinion.

18 Houston Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

"What are you lookin at? I know what I'm doing." - Han Solo

Houston has traditionally passed on opportunities to enhance the running game by drafting lineman or running backs, in favor of building the defense first (see Bush, Reggie) so Jenkins seems like the pick here. Jonathan Stewart has to look pretty appealing, and had the toe issue not come up, he would likely be the pick here, but Houston is as close to contending as they've been in their history and Jenkins can help right away. He may not have the physical tools of Cromartie or McKelvin, but he may be the CB most well-suited to help immediately.

19 Philadelphia Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

"I have a very bad feeling about this" - Luke

That's likely the feeling in the Eagles War Room when it comes to drafting a WR in round 1. Despite having their pick of the litter at the position, I expect that Lito Sheppard will be moved on or before draft day, making secondary the top priority. Safety is clearly an issue, but without a safety that wouldn't be considered a reach at this point, I think they may well opt to grab the last of the group most draftniks consider to be legit first-round talents at the CB spot.

20 Tampa Bay Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St.

"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." - Han Solo

The Tampa Bay offense is old. Jeff Garcia is old, Joey Galloway is old. The Cadillac is still busted up and they have spare parts manning the tailback spot. Gruden has all but put a neon sign up that the Bucs are looking for a playmaker on offense, and I doubt they pass up the consensus #1 WR in the draft. Thomas exploded from almost out of nowhere his senior year and with excellent size at 6'2" and legit 4.4 speed, he could be the field stretcher the Bucs are looking for, as well as a #1 WR to replace Galloway, who doesn't have much tread left on the tires.

21 Washington Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

"The last remnants of the Old republic have been swept away" - Tarkin

Joe Gibbs is gone and figurehead Jim Zorn is in as head coach, meaning Snyder retakes the reins of player personnel decisions. The Redskins Smurf-ish receiving corps is not scaring anyone and leaves too little space for Clinton Portis to operate. The Skins need a bonafide #1 receiver who can make the tough catches and anchor their receiving corps and Sweed fits the bill better than anyone. Indiana's Hardy is even bigger, but Sweed plays tougher and is more of a natural leader.

22 Dallas Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

"You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villany." - Obi-Wan

Dallas seems like they're going to continue loading up on talented, low-character guys as they have reportedly just upped the offer for Pac-Man Jones. I believe the deal will go down, meaning CB is not as big a priority as it was, and can be addressed in round 2. Jerry Jones may not be able to pass on the idea of having one of his beloved Hogs in the fold, and honestly, Felix is probably the best complement to Marion Barber available at this point. Jonathan Stewart is also a consideration, but his style is more like Barber's and Jones is the type of home-run threat they'd ideally like to pair with Barber's battering-ram running game.

23 Pittsburgh Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

"Not a bad bit of rescuing, huh? You know, sometimes I even amaze myself.." - Han Solo

Ben Roethlisberger had to pull off repeated heroics last year to avoid the opposition's pass rush and the running game suffered from a lack of power on the right side as well. There's no doubt that the line is the single biggest cause for concern for this team, and that's why they'll pass on Balmer and Cason for the last of the top tackles. The addition of Hartwig means the Sean Mahan experiment at C is mercifully over, but they still need help at G and T. Cherilus is a prototypical RT prospect whose stock has dropped because many feel he lacks the footwork to make an eventual move to LT. However, Max Starks has already shown he's better on the left than the right, so this is not as much of a concern.

24 Tennessee Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

"One thing's for sure.. we're all gonna be a lot thinner" - Han Solo

Tennessee's defensive line is the heart and soul of this team, and they took several offseason personnel hits, making Balmer a terrific pick here. Many are projecting a wideout, but with Vince Young's one-time battery mate off the board here, I think Balmer becomes an easy choice. He should start from day 1 alongside Haynesworth and the value at WR in this draft resides in round 2 anyway, so the Titans can look there to add a threat on the flank.

25 Seattle Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

"Well, he'd better have those units in the South Ridge repaired by mid-day or there'll be hell to pay." - Uncle Owen

If not for an ill-timed toe surgery, Stewart would have gone much higher. His is a unique blend of power and speed, clocking sub 4.4 in the 40 at 235 pounds. I know the Seahawks signed Julius Jones, but he's already used to being part of a committee and isn't nearly the feature back prospect Stewart is. This is a simple case of best player available, and passing on TEs like Jones or Keller isn't much of an issue when there are prospects like Carlson and Cottam (very underrated) that will be around a round or two later.

26 Jacksonville Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

"Now don't you forget this. Why I should stick my neck out for you is far beyond my capacity." C-3PO

This pick would be a calculated risk. Campbell had a lousy season for an underachieving Miami team, and many have questioned his strength and his technique. However, this is a point in the round where a team like Jacksonville can afford to take a big swing, as Campbell clearly has upside. He has rare size, versatility, and ability to disrupt in the backfield. If there's a spot in the NFL where he can be brought along, it will be in Jacksonville, where DelRio will have him on the weights immediately, and the players showing him the ropes are among the best in the business.

27 San Diego Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

"Stabilize your rear deflectors" - Gold Five

I know what you're thinking that quote was pretty lame. Sorry about that, but I felt I'd be remiss if I didn't get at least one quote from the mighty Gold Five in there. Plus, it fits. While a replacement for Turner would be a possibility here, and a RT would be ideal, there's not a ton of value at either of those spots and a guy like Collins or Greco at RT and a guy like Kevin Smith or Ray Rice at RB in the coming rounds would provide better. There are really only two top-tier safeties in this draft, and Miami has done a pretty good job of turning out players at the position of late. Phillips is quick and strong and can hit, but needs some coaching to avoid getting caught out of position.

28 Dallas DeSean Jackson, WR, California

"How long before you can make the jump to lightspeed?" - Obi-Wan

For Jackson, about 2 seconds. Many are down on him because of his size (or lack thereof) but he is the premier playmaker in this class both at WR and in the return game. The Cowboys would love to have a dynamic guy to pair with Terrell Owens and provide Romo with another weapon, and they find it here. After trading a 5th round pick for Pac-Man and drafting Felix Jones and now Jackson, Jones will have added three speed merchants to an already dangerous team.

29 San Francisco Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn

"This R2 unit has a bad motivator look!" - Luke

Groves recently disclosed heart surgery is bound to scare some teams off, along with a habit of inconsistent play (after registering 9 sacks as a junior, he netted only 3 in '07.) However, he is a natural fit as a 3-4 OLB, and in fact, could be the best prospect in this class at that position. Groves has phenomenal speed and explosiveness for his size and may be too small to play DE, meaning a team that runs a 3-4 will be much more likely to snap him up. His fall ends here.

***** TRADE ALERT *****

As is his wont, Ted Thompson trades down again. With a need at CB, he has seen the elite prospects go off the board and has a feeling a guy like Flowers or Cason is going to be sitting there at #37 same as they are at #30, so he gets value for his pick. Green Bay trades pick #30 and their 5th rounder (#162) to Atlanta for picks #37 and #68.

30 Atlanta (from GB) Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

"Someone has to save our skins.. into the garbage chute, flyboy !" - Leia

Atlanta desperately needs a QB and face of the franchise after the Vick debacle. If they're really going to move on, they need a QB, and they get one in Brohm, without giving up either pick #34 or #48. Brohm was considered a possible #1 pick not long ago, so the value is there, and with all the picks Atlanta has, they can make this move and still address other needs with two early 2nd round choices. Adding Dorsey and Brohm after signing Turner addresses multiple needs and with two of the next 18 picks coming up, they can grab an OL early in round 2 and another defender at #48.

31 "I felt a great disturbance in the force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

32 New York Giants Reggie Smith, S, Oklahoma

"Great shot kid, that was one in a million!" - Han Solo

Sums up the Giants season. I think they were probably hoping Philips would fall here, and Penn St linebacker Dan Connor or Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo would both be excellent fits and very possible selections, but I think the Giants will want a guy like Smith to shore up their secondary. He's the most versatile DB in the draft and can very easily project to either S or CB, although I feel he'll be better at the former. Despite the lack of elite speed, he is very fluid and has good hip-flip, meaning he could serve as a nickel/dime corner as well as a safety. This kind of flexibility will be very attractive to teams drafting this late in the round.