Breaking Down the Tape
Reviewing Top Tier RBs Eligible for the 2008 NFL Draft
I'd like to break down the tape of one top tier running back per week each of the next 12 weeks. I'll do this by watching one of their games and commenting on their play in that game, including fakes and blocking assignments, as well as their NFL prospects. My schedule for this feature is as follows:
9/1 - James Davis, Clemson vs. Florida State
9/8 - Steve Slaton, West Virginia vs. Marshall
9/15 - Jonathan Stewart, Oregon vs. Fresno State
9/22 - Mike Hart, Michigan vs. Penn State
9/27 - Ian Johnson, Boise State vs. Southern Mississippi
10/6 - Jamaal Charles, Texas vs. Oklahoma
10/13 - Darren McFadden, Arkansas vs. Auburn
10/20 - Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois vs. Michigan
10/27 - Ray Rice, Rutgers vs. West Virginia
11/3 - Matt Forte, Tulane vs. Tulsa
11/10 - TBD
11/17 - TBD
Obviously all of the defenses these players play will not be equal, but I still think we can get a good approximation of the skill sets that each of these running backs will bring to the NFL. This list also could be affected by injuries to the players and I will try to juggle it to fit everyone in if that occurs.
Mike Hart - Sr. - Michigan
Jersey: #20
Wt: 196 Ht: 5'9"
Age on 9/1/2008: 22.41
My Pre-Season Rank: #8
My Current Rank: #6
Tony Nowak's Take:
The 2004 Freshman All-American rebounded well last season after an injury-plagued 2005. He missed four games in 2005 due to hamstring and ankle problems, as well as only being able to finish five of the eight games he played in. Healthy again in 2006, Hart helped lead Michigan to the brink of a chance to play for the National Championship against their arch-rival. While they ultimately lost to the Buckeyes, it wasn't for lack of anything Hart did. Never a player to shrink in the spotlight, Hart was at the top of his game as he rushed for 142 yards on 23 carries (6.2 ypc) and three TDs at Ohio State. He sat out this spring recovering from minor surgery to clean up his left shoulder. Hart is expected to be ready for the season.
While a bit smaller than ideal for a feature back at the next level, Hart runs with good power and can carry the load. He is a workhorse who can handle 30 carries a game, if needed. He did so four times in 2006 and was over 90 rushing yards in every regular season game last year. The team is 20-3 in Hart's career when he carries the ball at least 20 times. Hart lacks breakaway speed (he has just three runs over 35 yards in his career) and won't break your ankles with his moves, but he is a patient runner who allows his blocks to be set up, then has good burst through the hole and finishes strong. He is an ideal fit for a one-cut zone blocking scheme. Hart not only had a strong desire to return for his senior year, but was a leader in recruiting others to do so. With fellow key offensive players LT Jake Long and QB Chad Henne both returning, Hart is well-placed for individual and team accolades that will help his draft value. The absence of top backup Kevin Grady, who tore his ACL in April, guarantees Hart won't see any less of a workload this season. Despite all those things lining him up to produce tremendous numbers, I expect he'll ultimately be hurt when it comes time for measurements and testing at the Combine and their Pro Day.
2008 Running Back Draft ClassStats (from ESPN):
| YEAR | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | FUM | LOST |
| 2004 | 282 | 1455 | 5.2 | 34 | 9 | 26 | 237 | 9.1 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | 150 | 662 | 4.4 | 64 | 4 | 16 | 154 | 9.6 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 318 | 1562 | 4.9 | 54 | 14 | 17 | 125 | 7.4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Breaking Down the Tape: Mike Hart, Michigan vs. Penn State, 9/22/2007
1st Play - 1st Quarter - 12:38 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and follows his fullback left; Good overall penetration by the defense and he doesn't get much; shows good leg churn though
2nd Play - 1st Quarter - 11:59 - Run Left
Hart goes left again with the handoff; makes a nice small angle cutback to the hole; doesn't get much because the defense is right there
3rd Play - 1st Quarter - 11:16 - Pass Block
Hart stays into pass block; does a nice job of engaging his man, but the speed of the defender fools him and the defender beats him; QB is sacked after stepping up into the pocket to allude Hart's defender
4th Play - 1st Quarter - 10:29 - Run Fake
Run fake to Hart and then a quick pass to the left flat; Hart turns and runs to the left side to block; makes a nice hit on a Linebacker, although the WR was already going down
5th Play - 1st Quarter - 9:44 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; doesn't have anyone to block; QB scrambles down field, Hart going ahead of him to block; Hart takes on a Linebacker in the open field and makes a great sealing block that allows his QB to run it in for a TD; very nice block by Hart
6th Play - 1st Quarter - 5:29 - Run Middle
Hart takes the ball and runs straight up the middle; gets to the LOS pretty quickly and lowers his shoulders as he runs into some defenders; gets a minimal gain and shows good leg churn
7th Play - 1st Quarter - 3:55 - Run Right
Hart goes right and has nowhere to run; great penetration by the defenders; not much he could have done there
8th Play - 1st Quarter - 3:21 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; almost lets his man beat him around the end, but does a nice job make a dive and knocking the defender off his feet; good job
9th Play - 1st Quarter - 3:12 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; does a great job stoning a blitz by All-American LB Dan Conner; QB scrambles and Conner disengages from Hart and makes the tackle, but real nice block from Hart; he's not afraid of anyone
10th Play - 1st Quarter - 1:22 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and sprints left; shows very good quickness to get to the corner; does a nice move following the blocking and shows some good speed as he gains 10 yards
11th Play - 1st Quarter - 1:16 - Run Right
Hart takes the handoff and heads right; is pretty quick to the LOS; gets tripped up right there and goes down for a minimal gain
12th Play - 1st Quarter - :38 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; engages the defender, but not quickly enough; defender jumps up and blocks the pass
13th Play - 1st Quarter - :33 - Pass Route
Hart does a hesitation move in the backfield as if to pass block and then heads out in the pattern; pass goes over his head further downfield
14th Play - 1st Quarter - :13 - Run Block
A WR gets the direct snap and heads on a sweep left with Hart as the lead blocker; Hart does a decent job on his man, but the defense isn't fooled and the WR is taken down for a loss
15th Play - 2nd Quarter - 15:00 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and helps double team a rushing defender; does a fine job
16th Play - 2nd Quarter - 14:56 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; does a nice job on his man who initially gets around the O-Lineman but is stoned by Hart; QB gets sacked by a different defender and fumbles the ball; Hart alertly rushes to the ball and falls on it; heads up play; after review changed to an incomplete pass
17th Play - 2nd Quarter - 9:08 - Run Fake
Hart fakes to the left side; throw goes to the right side downfield
18th Play - 2nd Quarter - 9:04 - Run Middle
Hart takes the handoff and goes straight up the middle; gets to the LOS quickly, but he's not explosive; makes a slight juke as he goes through the big hole and just lowers his shoulders; gets about 8 yards but he was untouched until the end; very much a North-South runner
19th Play - 2nd Quarter - 8:29 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and heads left; makes a nice medium angle cut up field without gearing down; makes a nice lean juke as he gets through the LOS to fake the LB and cuts back to the right off it, gaining several more yards and carrying a crowd as he falls forward; this run shows some of the pros and cons of Hart at the next level: he has some wiggle and a lot of determination, he moves quicker than you think and he has a lower center of gravity, but he also shows a lack of acceleration, much less any explosive quickness
20th Play - 2nd Quarter - 7:59 - Pass Route
Hart goes out into the pass route on a short curl; pass is complete over his head to the WR
21st Play - 2nd Quarter - 7:39 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and follows his blockers to the left; he runs along the backs of his blockers and gets what he can before the line collapses
22nd Play - 2nd Quarter - 6:59 - Run Right
Takes the handoff and heads right; slows up as the hole closes and makes a nice lean juke, breaking a defenders arm tackle attempt; gets grabbed at the ankles, but still turns it up field and falls forward for a couple of more yards; nice run showing that he's comfortable running in tight spaces and can break an arm tackle
23rd Play - 2nd Quarter - 6:22 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; helps keep the pocket intact as the pass is completed downfield
24th Play - 2nd Quarter - 5:57 - Run Left
Hart runs left after the handoff; makes a nice quick move inside as a defender moves up field past him; makes another cut to move upfield, although he gears down a little too much; runs hard into a group of defenders after a 9 yard gain; he certainly runs hard and determined
25th Play - 2nd Quarter - 5:43 - Run Left
Hart runs hard to the left through a nice hole; smacks into a group of defenders and twists around to gain a couple of extra yards
26th Play - 2nd Quarter - 5:01 - Run Middle
Hart runs straight up the middle through a big hole; shows very good vision with a great cutback move, although he gears down too much; leaves the defender clutching at air; then makes a nice lean juke back up field, shaking off another defender; gets grabbed from behind and drags two defenders the last couple of yards for a first down; very impressive run; again he looks quicker than I think he is, for some reason; not only dies he run with determination, but he is also very decisive
27th Play - 2nd Quarter - 4:38 - Run Left
Hart takes the hand off on the stretch left; just quick enough to elude an up field defender and then makes a very nice cut and go through a hole; gets caught from behind after he makes it through the hole when he slows to make a move
28th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:33 - Run Left
Hart goes left on a stretch run but is swarmed in the backfield for a loss; not much he could have done
29th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:11 - Pass Route
Hart goes out to run a screen pattern and the pass is thrown away with defenders all around
30th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:04 - Pass Route
Harts goes out in a short curl pass pattern; pass is incomplete over his head downfield
31st Play - 2nd Quarter - 1:55 - Run Middle
Hart takes the handoff and looks indecisive for the first time as the hole isn't there; he is soon swarmed by defenders for a loss
32nd Play - 2nd Quarter - 1:23 - Run Middle
Hart again looks indecisive as he takes the handoff and heads up the middle; jukes around for a yard but isn't running with the same fire for some reason
33rd Play - 2nd Quarter - 1:14 - Pass Route
Hart heads into the pass route up the short middle; pass is complete further downfield and Hart hustles downfield to try to help block; he gets there too late though
34th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:58 - Pass Route
Hart again runs a short curl pass route and is the target of the pass; however it is tipped at the LOS and falls incomplete
35th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:53 - Pass Route
Hart runs the short curl route; pass complete to the right side of the field
36th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:39 - Run Middle
Hart runs right up the middle through a big hole; when he gets to the second level and sees a LB in front of him, he lowers his shoulder and carries the LB for a couple more yards
37th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:32 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and is on the left side helping a lineman when he sees a LB on a delayed blitz up the middle; he gets over to the LB and hits him as he goes by, just giving his QB time to throw the ball away; great play there and the type of play that wins ball games but doesn't show up in the stat sheet
38th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:28 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and sees the LB free on the blitz again and rushes up to stone him in the hole; the QB completes the pass downfield; great, great block by Hart on an All-American Linebacker
39th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:19 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to block and just helps keep the pocket together; pass incomplete downfield
40th Play - 2nd Quarter - 0:14 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to block and again helps keep the pocket together; pass downfield is intercepted
41st Play - 3rd Quarter - 14:55 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and runs left; pushes through a small hole and then accelerates into the second level; makes a nice lean juke back inside that loses his momentum but gains him 3 more yards
42nd Plat - 3rd Quarter - 14:17 - Run Middle
Hart heads toward the left before making a good cut back inside; loses his balance some with the cut, but manages to keep enough balance to get several more yards after lowering his shoulder
43rd Play - 3rd Quarter - 13:53 - Run Right
Hart heads right this time, but a defender shoots the gap and tackles Hart by his shoes; a "niftier" back probably could have avoided that tackle
44th Play - 3rd Quarter - 13:13 - Pass Block
Hart makes a phenomenal block on Dan Connor, the All-American Linebacker here; right at the snap Connor was free on a blitz up the middle and he was just about to sack the QB as he was still dropping back when Hart slammed into him and stoned him; just a great, great play by Hart
45th Play - 3rd Quarter - 11:37 - Run Left
Hart head left and there is a surge of defenders into the backfield; no where for him to go
46th Play - 3rd Quarter - 11:02 - Run Right
Hart takes the handoff and goes right, but there are again multiple defenders there to tackle him for a loss
47th Play - 3rd Quarter - 10:24 - Run Fake
Hart fakes the handoff; pass is complete downfield
48th Play - 3rd Quarter - 6:09 - Run Left
Hart goes left; gets held up in the backfield by an attempted shoe tackle, but slips that; shows nice technique running in a tight space here, just lowering the shoulder, bouncing around and carrying some defenders for a few extra yards
49th Play - 3rd Quarter - 5:35 - Run Left
Hart shows his surprising speed here to get to the corner and turn it quickly; gets up some speed and then lowers his shoulders to run over a LB and pick up the first down; it's easy to say that he won't be fast enough to turn the corner in the pros, or strong enough to run over a LB, but it's more likely than his measurable would have you believe
50th Play - 3rd Quarter - 5:14 - Run Middle
Hart heads up the middle; not a large hole there, but he still lowers his head and gets a couple of yards
51st Play - 3rd Quarter - 4:39 - Run Left
Hart heads left and right away needs to dodge an up field defender; makes an decent move to get around the defender, but gears down so much that he can't get through the hole before it closes; does make a nice jump over a prone defender to get an extra yard or two, again showing his determination
52nd Play - 3rd Quarter - 3:58 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and helps keep the pocket in place
53rd Play - 3rd Quarter - 0:13 - Run Fake
Hart fakes left and the QB bootlegs right
54th Play - 4th Quarter - 15:00 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; doesn't need to engage anyone; pass completed
55th Play - 4th Quarter - 14:53 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block; doesn't engage anyone; pass completed
56th Play - 4th Quarter - 14:45 - Run Right
Hart takes the handoff and starts left, but makes an excellent quick cut back to the middle as he sees congestion; he barely gears down at all here, probably his best cut of the night; starts heading right toward a gap and just can't accelerate fast enough to get by a defender with the angle; but he does get positive yardage with a nice read and quick cut
57th Play - 4th Quarter - 14:11 - Run Fake
Hart fakes the run left as the WR goes around for an end around to the right; gains positive yardage
58th Play - 4th Quarter - 14:00 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and makes another great block on a LB; gets low and puts his shoulder pads right into the linebacker's hip, not only stopping him but preventing him from getting a hand in the passing lane; excellent block
59th Play - 4th Quarter - 13:56 - Run Middle
Hart takes the delay handoff and goes straight up the middle through a big hole; shows decent acceleration here in a straight line and does a nice job keeping his balance and dragging a defender for a couple of yards on an ankle tackle
60th Play - 4th Quarter - 13:17 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and goes left; nicely avoids a diving up field defender; gets to the LOS and stops, ducks right to throw off a tackle attempt and then heads up the middle; does a really nice job using his off hand to bat away an arm tackle and then plows ahead into a group of defenders picking up several more yards; batting away the arm tackle is a great skill that you don't often see and he does an excellent job of it here; Hart seems to be moving much faster here, as he has effectively worn down a highly rated (although possibly overrated) Penn State defense; reminds me a bit of Eddie George in that respect, turning it on in the 4th quarter when the defense was tired
61st Play - 4th Quarter - 12:53 - Run Left
Hart heads left behind his great Left Tackle and finds a big hole; does a nice job using his off hand again to push off a defender; shows decent speed and then slows too much to make a move and gets tackled
62nd Play - 4th Quarter - 12:14 - Run Left
Hart heads left but is tackled behind the line when there is no hole; not much he could do there
63rd Play - 4th Quarter - 11:31 - Pass Route
Hart goes out into the pass route; short middle route
64th Play - 4th Quarter - 11:04 - Run Left
Hart runs left again; cuts up into the LOS without a real hole; does a good job making square contact with a defender and drives him back a yard or two
65th Play - 4th Quarter - 10:24 - Run Left
Hart heads left and needs to split two up field defenders; does a nice job keeping his balance as they go down, but his momentum is lost and he goes down after another yard
66th Play - 4th Quarter - 9:47 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to help pass block
67th Play - 4th Quarter - 9:41 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and runs into a pile of bodies; grinds out about a yard; nothing really there
68th Play - 4th Quarter - 9:00 - Run Right - TD
Hart takes the handoff and heads to the right; gets hit by a couple of defenders, but keeps his balance and fights forward for the touchdown; nice effort, although it really looked he was down before the ball crossed the goal line
69th Play - 4th Quarter - 6:04 - Run Left
Hart goes left and sweeps around the corner; shows some nice speed there to get to the second level; runs through an arm tackle and then is finally tackled by several defenders
70th Play - 4th Quarter - 5:38 - Run Middle
Hart takes the handoff and goes to the middle but is immediately stuffed by several defenders
71st Play - 4th Quarter - 5:01 - Run Middle
Hart takes a delayed handoff and heads up the middle; not much there, but he gets what he can; still looking pretty fresh
72nd Play - 4th Quarter - 4:24 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to pass block and then roles into the flat as a safety valve; pass is complete downfield
73rd Play - 4th Quarter - 3:50 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and only gets a couple of hard yards over the left tackle
74th Play - 4th Quarter - 3:43 - Run Middle
Hart heads right up the middle at full speed through a big hole; gets some nice yardage and then is upended by a defender
75th Play - 4th Quarter - 3:32 - Pass Block
Hart stays in to help pass block and does a nice job engaging a defender coming from the outside; pass is complete downfield
76th Play - 4th Quarter - 3:08 - Run Middle
Hart takes the handoff but there is absolutely nowhere to go as multiple defenders break through and he's dropped for a loss
77th Play - 4th Quarter - 2:59 - Run Left
Hart takes the handoff and heads left; tries to cut back to the middle when the hole suddenly closes but trips over a fallen blocker
78th Play - 4th Quarter - 2:09 - Run Middle
Hart gets only a yard up the middle; at this point he's killing the clock and the defense knows it so they're gearing up to stop him
Final Game Stats:
Hart had 44 carries for 153 yards and 1 TD. That's a 3.5 yard per carry average with a long run of 14 yards.
Play Chart Breakdown:
78 Total Plays (78!!)
44 Runs
5 Run Fakes
1 Run Block
20 Pass Blocks
8 Pass Routes
Mike Hart Summary:
Mike Hart is a running back whose name fits his style. He has a ton of heart and determination. He does a lot of the "dirty work" that other RBs might not even try to do, much less show the success at it that Hart has shown. He has a low center of gravity due to his short height, strong lower body and crouched running style. This will help him at the next level. He is faster than people think, has some decent wiggle and isn't afraid to run in tight spaces. However I don't think he has the quickness or acceleration, especially laterally, to star at the next level. A good way to explain this is to look at the difference, in my mind, between a lean juke and a breakdown juke. In a lean juke, the RB leans his head, shoulders and possibly the ball arm in one direction while still running in the other, hoping to fake the defender into pursuing the lean direction. It is used because the back doesn't want to slow down or change much direction. The breakdown juke is when the RB actually slows down and almost moves his entire body in one direction before quickly changing back to the original direction. It is almost always going to be a better fake than a lean juke would be in the same situation. However you need to be quick and have excellent acceleration. Those are two traits that Mike Hart does not have at the same level as some of these other RBs, which is why you see him use lean jukes a lot more often than breakdown jukes.
Another issue with Hart could be his overuse. You can add up his touches in this game and his touches from the statistics at the top of the article and see that he's been a workhorse all 4 years at Michigan. But the breakdown of this game shows his hidden work on pass plays. You can see how much they use him in all facets of the game. Even on some of those run fakes he's getting hit and knocked to the ground. There are a lot of miles on these tires.
In the right system, likely a Zone Blocking System, I think Hart could be a serviceable NFL RB. His excellent blocking technique should at least keep him employed as a 3rd down or change of pace back, assuming he can catch the safety valve pass. He's only fumbled the ball once in college at this point and that kind of ball security is highly sought after at the next level. I would never bet against him making it in the NFL because he has shown the toughness, grit and leadership that NFL teams want in their players. But from a fantasy football perspective, he probably shouldn't be a high draft pick in your fantasy draft.
Rating System: Hart would be a 2B in the rating system if taken in the first 2 rounds, or a 2C if taken in rounds 3 or 4
