April 10, 2008

People say the juniors coming out saved this class –and those people might be right. There are a huge amount of intriguing players going here and as such you may see some guys go a round later than they should as teams wait a round because there are so many RBs to choose from.

1 - Darren McFadden, Arkansas – Some analysts have said he can’t break a tackle – that his legs ‘go dead on contact’ – that’s the term. He’s also got some character concerns and we know how important that is in Roger Goodell’s new NFL. While I do believe he needs to add bulk and muscle to his thin legs and he is prone to some bad off-the-field decisions, he’s got every other tool you need to succeed and will go high in the draft – though don’t be shocked if he drops out of the top 5 like Peterson last year.

2 -Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois – While he only carried the ball full time for one season – what a season it was. I’d also point out he has fresher legs than a 4 year starter. Mendenhall is a natural runner who always keeps his legs churning, can catch the ball well and can block – always a plus. He gets the edge for me since Jonathan Stewart has a toe injury and those could linger, even if it isn’t bad.

3 - Jonathan Stewart, Oregon – While the toe injury isn’t a big deal long term, it does highlight Stewart’s biggest negative – durability. He’s nicked up a lot. He’s not the most explosive runner and it’s always hard to know what to make of a player coming out of the spread offense. But he is a great athlete, has excellent overall speed and quickness, can catch well and can break long runs. If he can stay healthy, expect a long and happy career for him in the NFL.

4 - Felix Jones, Arkansas – The other half of the Arkansas tandem. Had a great Yards Per Carry last season and did a lot with much fewer carries than his partner Mr. McFadden. Great receiver, great vision, can change direction on a dime – is a big play threat in his own right. He’s never carried the full load in college though, isn’t a great blocker and not great at breaking tackles. Would be a great tandem back, more than a bell cow – not someone carrying your full load, but a great #2 in a 1-2 punch.

5 - Chris Johnson, East Carolina – I love this guy. Explosive speed, and when he gets into space – wow. Elusive and quick, he can turn a tight corner and make guys miss, cutback the other way and then take off. And he has great kick/punt return skills. So why isn’t he higher on the list? Well, he’s not quite the size you’d like in a back. While he is very fast, he’s not yet a great inside runner and at his size, might not ever be one. He got moved around a lot in college between WR and RB so he’s lacking in experience. I like his upside a lot though and am intrigued to see where he goes.

6 - Ray Rice, Rutgers – Rice is an excellent back with a great deal of patience who runs very tough. He’s a guy you can count on to get extra yards after contact. He catches well and has very soft hands. He lacks size and while his timed speed is good, he doesn’t seem to play to it. He’s not going to make a lot of guys miss and doesn’t break a lot of big plays.

7 - Jamaal Charles, Texas – Charles is a speedy back with very good burst. He’s also very agile and can turn a corner and get outside. He’s the sort of back who is always a threat to take it to the house, but doesn’t just look for the big plays – he’ll gut the tough yards out as well. But despite the fact that he’ll fight for those yards, he’s not big enough to be relied upon for them. He’s got some issues with holding onto the ball. He was only the starter at Texas for one year and nobody is really sure how durable he is.

8 - Kevin Smith, Central Florida – Smith is a pretty good sized, athletic back who plays faster than his timed speed indicates. He’s a natural runner and has great instincts and very good vision. He’s able to catch balls out of the backfield, and between that and his carries, was a very productive back the last two years. But while he does play fast, he doesn’t have elite speed nor does he have good burst. He’s not really a big play threat and may get caught trying to turn the corner at the Pro level. He tends to run too tall and isn’t carrying enough bulk to withstand the pounding that can bring with it – as such durability is a concern. He’s also had some character questions.

9 - Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech – Choice is another RB with very good instincts and vision. He’s able to find the hole and hit it hard. He runs with a tough and aggressive style that carries over into pass protection, helping his blocking. But he lacks speed, elusiveness and while he runs aggressively, he doesn’t run with power. He won’t break too many big plays. May be a jack of all trades – catching, running short yards, blocking – but master of none.

10 - Matt Forte, Tulane – Matt Forte is a very versatile back, able to block well, run with power, catch the ball out of the backfield and get important short yards. Problem is, he’s not an explosive back and doesn’t have very good speed and isn’t very elusive once he gets past the line. Has had questions about his durability, especially since a season-ending knee injury his junior year. A good all-around RB, but doesn’t quite have that one special thing that would let him fit easily into an offensive scheme.