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Post Draft Rookie 100
by Sigmund Bloom

The Rookie 100 ranks players based on their possible values in deep dynasty leagues that have PPR (point per reception) and full IDP lineups. Be sure to adjust for your league's scoring and lineups and the makeup of your particular roster before using the 100 as a rookie draft cheatsheet.

Bloom 100 Discussion Thread


Folks, forgive me if I change my mind a bit on some guys with more time to reflect. I know that rookie drafts are starting, so I wanted to get the first postdraft version out ASAP.


Rank Name Pos Team
1 Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina

I'm not a huge fan of ANY of the situations the top three RBs landed in short term, so I have to fall back on talent to separate them for the long term, and I am huge fan of Stewart's talent. I don't know if I completely trust Fox to FINALLY use the younger and more talented RB, but eventually the cream will rise to the top.

2 Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh

Mendenhall gets the edge over McFadden at two because he should a 20-25 carry back by 2010, and the Steelers have the defense and supporting cast on offense give him lots of opportunities for touchdowns with a great young QB and weapons in the passing game. I am a little worried about an offensive line that lost their best run blocker and couldn't open holes last year, or Mendenhall would be #1.

3 Darren McFadden RB Oakland

The more McFadden tape I watched, the less I liked him, and even though he'll get immediate opportunity, he will also have to go through a young QB's struggles, and Michael Bush's size may dictate that he's the short yardage runner in the offense, even though he wasn't a bruiser at Louisville. McFadden has to become more patient (just like Justin Fargas when he came in the league) and do something about that fumbling problem. The top 3 in this rookie is very tightly packed in terms of overall dynasty value.

4 Matt Forte RB Chicago

Bears fans everywhere can breath a sigh of relief, the Cedric Benson era is over. Forte is not nearly as talented as the threesome in front of him, and the Bears have their share of problems on the O Line and at QB, so Forte might have tough sledding at first, but you have to take an everydown back who should be given the job at #4 even if Russ Lande thought he was only NFL backup quality - which still makes him the best RB on the roster.

5 Chris Johnson RB/WR Tennessee

Even though Johnson is a speed back a la McFadden, the more of his film I watched this spring, the more I liked him. He generates surprising power through his hips and has better balance than I expected. He can also catch upwards of 50 passes with the ability up in the slot, and we shouldn't be that worried about Lendale White and Chris Henry.

6 James Hardy WR Buffalo

Hardy will have to be the designated red zone target from day one, and he should make hay while the deep safety is preoccupied with Lee Evans.

7 Ray Rice RB Baltimore

Patience will be the key to mining Rice's value, just like it will be for most of the top prospects in this year's rookie crop. I think McGahee will be the feature back for two more years, then get moved a la Thomas Jones to a team that wants to get the last bit of tread on his tires. As long as Cam Cameron sticks around, Rice can then become the beneficiary of the same kind of playcalling that LT and Ronnie Brown have turned into a fantasy bonanza in the past.

8 Devin Thomas WR Washington

You would have rather seen Thomas land somewhere that he wasn't going to have to compete with another talented young wideout, especially one that will be a sick red zone target, but Thomas should have a good shot at being the #2 very early, and the #1 in Washington by 2010.

9 Matt Ryan QB Atlanta

Ryan should be starting by Thanksgiving, and he's going to piloting an offense that plays indoors in a division that features some questionable defenses. I expect him to settle in around Matt Hasselbeck level by 2010.

10 Donnie Avery WR St. Louis

Avery should be a more reliable target for Marc Bulger than Drew Bennett if last year is any indication, and Avery has a terrific mentor in Torry Holt. Avery as WR1 was not as big a reach as you think.

11 Malcolm Kelly WR Washington

I still love Kelly's talent, and even though I'm not how he's going to get a lot of targets in the near future with Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Fred Davis to compete with, but talent eventually creates opportunity.

12 Earl Bennett WR Chicago

Plain and simple, he'll be the most dependable WR in that offense by midseason, if not earlier.

13 Kevin Smith RB Detroit

Let someone else overpay for Smith. I already explained why I don't like his running style, although playing indoors 9+ games a year will mitigate that - the other problem is that I don't see him getting short yardage/goal line carries - more on that later. He'll be long gone before 13 in every rookie draft.

14 Felix Jones RB Dallas

Jones is a one dimensional back as it is, and I hate his situation. Even if Dallas somehow lets MBIII walk next year, Tashard Choice will still be the better suited back on the roster to get the bread and butter carries.

15 Brian Brohm QB Green Bay

Folks, Aaron Rodgers is a free agent next year. Look at the weapons Brohm is surrounded with. Look at the offense, which is perfectly suited for his just ok arm strength, but outstanding field vision and decision making. If Rodgers gets hurt or just wants too much money, Brohm could seize the moment, and he would have top 5-10 fantasy QB potential.

16 Curtis Lofton LB Atlanta

Instinctive MLB on a rebuilding team = IDP gold, dare I compare him to DeMeco Ryans?

17 Jordan Dizon LB Detroit

Remember how you couldn't get Paris Lenon out of your lineup even though he was mediocre at best? That should tell you what kind of numbers are there for the taking in that Detroit MLB role. Now imagine them with a real player in that position.

18 Jerod Mayo LB New England

He's a little more deliberate and not quite as athletic as Patrick Willis, even though he went higher in the draft. Mayo should still be an instant top 25 LB.

19 Dan Connor LB Carolina

If Connor gets Dan Morgan's old number, you might think you're watching NFL films highlights on Sundays when he cracks skulls in run defense.

20 Jordy Nelson WR Green Bay

Nelson should catch 60-80 balls a year as a super slot receiver, but his presence helps Brohm/Rodgers and Greg Jennings the most because he can work the middle of the field til the cows come home to the meat packing plants in Green Bay.

21 Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati

Rivers will chase down ballcarriers if he ends up on weak side, but he wasn't a playmaker at USC, and he's good enough in coverage to land on the strong side. There is upside there if Bengals crater and he finds himself facing 30-40 rushing attempts a game from AFC North opponents six times a year.

22 Jerome Simpson WR Cincinnati

If the Bengals let Housh walk next year, Simpson could be a 90+ catch a year WR with one of the best QBs in the league for fantasy production throwing to him.

23 Early Doucet WR Arizona

Doucet should be one of the highest producing #3 WRs in the league, and I have a feeling that Arizona may find a way to move Anquan Boldin if he plays the way he did as a junior at LSU.

24 DeSean Jackson WR Philadelphia

The Eagles don't have a true #1 WR, and if Jackson can bulk up and toughen up, he has a shot to become that guy.

25 Limas Sweed WR Pittsburgh

Well, Big Ben, you got your big wideout. Limas is already used to the keep the play alive drill with Vince Young, and I think he'll be the recipient of some improvisational deep balls from Roethlisberger, although I also think Hines Ward has 2-3 good years left before Sweed steps into a starting role - IF he can become a better route runner and attack the ball.

26 Dustin Keller TE New York Jets

The Jets have their very own version of Dallas Clark, but they already had a hardnosed receiver who can work the middle in Jerricho Cotchery, and they just reupped Coles. Keller has top 10 TE upside, but I'm not about top 5 in that offense.

27 Mario Manningham WR New York Giants

Manningham is a top 50 talent even though he almost fell to the 100th pick. He's landed in a good culture with a good mentor in Amani Toomer. New York could have quite the pair of starting WRs in Manningham and Steve Smith in a few years.

28 Josh Johnson QB Tampa Bay

A match made in heaven. Gruden should just turn an office in the team headquarters into Johnson's apartment. Don't be surprised if Johnson ends up being the best fantasy QB in this class in 3 years.

29 Tavares Gooden LB Baltimore

Just be patient, and you'll have the starting MLB for Baltimore - Ray Ray should teach this versatile LB from his school everything he knows. If Bart Scott doesn't return to 2006 form, you might not even need to be patient to get production from Gooden.

30 Andre Caldwell WR Cincinnati

I love Caldwell's raw speed, and the WR corps should open up in the next two years, with Ocho Cinco turning into a malcontent and Houshmandzadeh at the end of his deal next year.

31 Jamaal Charles RB Kansas City

The miserly owners in Kansas City still have to get their money's worth of 350+ carries a season out of Larry Johnson for at least two more years before Charles gets his shot, but he's not ready to be a big time contributor in the NFL yet anyway.

32 Eddie Royal WR Denver

Royal was selected as a return threat as much as a receiver, but he might have more opportunity than natural slot receiver he is if Brandon Marshall's clash with his big screen TV leaves him with one good arm.

33 Steve Slaton RB Houston

Slaton won't be an everydown back, but you still have to love his long term opportunity in Houston. If he landed here coming of his 2006 season, he would be a top 10 rookie pick.

34 Joe Flacco QB Baltimore

I don't like that Flacco is going to just be handed a job because that didn't seem to work with strong armed first rounders like Kyle Boller and JP Losman, but then again, he is going to be handed a starting job.

35 Chad Henne QB Miami

A Bill Parcells organization has a better chance of helping Henne find his form than most. The John Beck era should be over before it begins. There is still a bust risk with Henne (see: the better part of the middle of his career at Michigan), and the cupboard is bare when it comes to weapons.

36 Keenan Burton WR St. Louis

Burton's 4th round draft slot indicates that there were some red flags on his medical exam, but he should be poised to start when Torry Holt retires if he can stay healthy.

37 Lavelle Hawkins WR Tennessee

Vince Young is going to learn to love the Hawk. His ball tracking and soft hands will make Titans fans forget the Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones follies, although Hawkins production will be limited by a run first offense.

38 Chris Long DE St. Louis

Long ends up as a traditional 4-3 end, but I still like him to be the kind of hustle guy who puts up 50-60 solos from the position in addition to 10-12 sacks, and even an interception or two a year.

39 Kenny Phillips S New York Giants

I see no reason Phillips can't be as productive as Gibril Wilson was in Spag's defense last year.

40 Xavier Adibi LB Houston

Adibi has the coverage skills to be an everydown LB, and it isn't like Houston is loaded at OLB.

41 Brandon Flowers CB Kansas City

Flowers could start from day one for KC and your IDP dynasty while he's the beneficiary of the rookie corner effect. His tackling ability could keep him in your starting lineup for the long haul - even in leagues that lump S and CB together.

42 Derrick Harvey DE Jacksonville

I'm not totally sold on Harvey - he disappears for entire games. Still, Gregg Williams can make this guy a big time pass rush weapon - with linebackers coming at the QB from all angles, they will have trouble focusing on Harvey.

43 Vernon Gholston OLB New York Jets

It might seem strange to see the #6 overall pick this low, but I don't like Gholston's presence against the run or his uneven effort. Ware/Merriman, he is not, even though he went higher.

44 John Carlson TE Seattle

Love the opportunity, but I'm not convinced Carlson can function as an inline blocking TE or that he possesses the speed to make catches more than 10-15 yards downfield. Owen Daniels potential at the very best.

45 Philip Wheeler LB Indianapolis

I don't know if Wheeler has the range to play the middle or weak side in a cover 2, but his blitz skills could make a solid fantasy LB even as two down SLB - he is skilled in coverage, so he could surprise and end up one of th most productive IDP LBs in this class.

46 Jalen Parmele RB Miami

Let's see... Ronnie Brown is coming to the end of his rookie deal, Ricky Williams is old, and well, Ricky Williams, and Lorenzo Booker is an Eagle. Parmele is like Earnest Graham, and he could join him as RBs who get opportunity by attrition in the Sunshine State.

47 Justin Forsett RB Seattle

Hmmm... Seattle didn't do a thing about RB in the draft except draft Forsett (unless you count drafting slobberknocking lead blocking FB Owen Schmitt). Always loved what I saw from Forsett, even if he is undersized.

48 Mike Hart RB Indianapolis

He should beat out Kenton Keith, and in the off hand chance Joseph Addai misses multiple games, Hart will be a fantasy commodity and a massive sell high.

49 Ryan Torain RB Denver

If it's a rookie draft, you know we're all trying to figure out where to put the Denver RB. Torain is more powerful than the typical Denver sleeper, but as usual, opportunity is there.

50 Beau Bell LB Cleveland

Jeremiah Trotter produced great IDP numbers even though he couldn't drop into coverage, and Bell can too, especially in a 3-4.

51 Tyrell Johnson S Minnesota

He gets to learn from one of the best in Darren Sharper. Minnesota's cover 2 will limit Johnson's IDP upside, although he is a natural playmaker.

52 Tashard Choice RB Dallas

Choice's value could explode if MBIII wants too much money and Dallas lets him get it elsewhere, but that doesn't sound like Jerry Jones style, does it?

53 Will Franklin WR Kansas City

Franklin is a great athlete, and he only has to beat out Devard Darling and Jeff Webb to start in KC.

54 Dexter Jackson WR Tampa Bay

Like Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson, Dexter was brought in mainly for his return ability, but unlike them, he's got a long way to go before he's got NFL WR skills.

55 Jerome Felton RB Detroit

I would list Felton higher, except you can probably get him in the last round of your rookie draft because of the "FB" next to his name. Don't let that fool you - he was a feature back in college, his idol is Jerome Bettis, and he scored TDs by the dozen at Furman.

56 Shawn Crable LB New England

Crable can be groomed to play inside on run downs and outside on pass downs. You just know New England will make him into the best player he can be.

57 Tim Hightower RB Arizona

Hightower showed some nice physical attributes at the Texas Vs The Nation game, but like Kevin Smith, he struck me as a dancer. If I see that Grimmenhunt has turned him into a power runner in the preseason, he'll shoot up this list because of possible long term opportunity.

58 Aqib Talib CB Tampa Bay

Talib can be a ferocious tackler when he wants to be. He's a character bust risk, but the cover 2 can make a big aggressive corner a fantasy force.

59 Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City

Dorsey should be a top priority in leagues that start DT.

60 Quentin Groves DE Jacksonville

I don't know if Groves has the bulk to play 4-3 end on run downs, and Jacksonville is stacked at LB, so the Jags might have spent their 2nd on a pass rush specialist - which is totally understandable. He's still worth a flier just in case they find a way to get him on the field more.

61 Fred Davis TE Washington

I don't know how this guy fits in with Cooley and all the WRs, and he's a character risk to boot.

62 Jermichael Finley TE Green Bay

Like Davis, he has to be fourth or fifth at best in his team's target pecking order despite good natural receiving ability.

63 Chauncey Washington RB Jacksonville

Long term opportunity is there with Fred Taylor at the end of his career, but I'm glad teams didn't fall for that 40 time, leaving him there til the late part of the draft.

64 Leodis McKelvin CB Buffalo

Should start pretty early and has the speed and ballhawking skills to score defensive TDs.

65 Mike jenkins CB Dallas

Another solid CB to play while he gets picked on, and his size and speed could keep him in your lineup even after he's established.

66 Dennis Dixon QB Pittsburgh

Love that he's a Steeler, but he's just a fun end of the roster novelty player to hold on a team with no long term opportunity at QB. Still, if he develops as a QB behind Big Ben, his fantasy value could explode at the end of his rookie deal.

67 Marcus Monk WR Chicago

Have to love the opportunity at WR in Chicago, plus they don't have any other big WRs.

68 Jacob Tamme TE Indianapolis

Ben Utecht 2.0, and could have big value if Clark gets hurt.

69 Geno Hayes LB Tampa Bay

Sneaky pick here as Derrick Brooks just might help this fellow Florida State alum click in the cover 2 WLB role.

70 Spencer Larsen LB Denver

Don't be surprised if he beats out Niko K. to be the 2 down run stuffer at MLB.

71 Paul Hubbard WR Cleveland

Raw, but worth a shot. Moves up at least 10-15 spots with encouraging rookie camp news.

72 Harry Douglas WR Atlanta

Is Bobby Petrino still coaching this team? A too small WR who doesn't run crisp routes in the third?

73 John David Booty QB Minnesota

He only has to get past a disappointing Tarvaris and old man Frerotte to see the field, but me thinks that if Tarvaris fails this year, the Vikes go QB early in the draft next year.

74 Jacob Hester FB San Diego

Hester can catch the ball well, and I would hope they call his number in short yardage and at the goal line, and that's worth a late pick in rookie drafts.

75 Brad Cottam TE Kansas City

If he can stay healthy, Cottam could be Tony G's protege in KC.

76 Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans

Like Dorsey, he's a nice second half of the draft rookie pick in leagues that start DTs.

77 Xavier Omon RB Buffalo

Rough landing spot for Omon. In Arizona or Seattle, he's in Forsett or Parmele's place on this list. Watch out for him if he's a late cut and goes elsewhere instead of going on the PS.

78 Thomas Brown RB Atlanta

Love his game, but he'll be a third stringer for a while, and this is Michael Turner's running game for the next 4-5 years.

79 Peyton Hillis FB Denver

Hillis could catch 50+ balls out of the backfield, he's that skilled as a receiver, and not a bad runner either. Imagine if Brian Leonard had gone to Denver last year instead of St. Louis.

80 Erik Ainge QB New York Jets

Yawn. He might be an ok longshot, but I heard through the grapevine that the Jets really wanted Flacco, and they'll go QB early next year if neither Clemens nor Pennington steps up this year.

81 Andre Woodson QB New York Giants

We felt bad for Woodson during the draft. Hopefully this gives him the chip on this shoulder to prove the doubters wrong, and deny David Carr a roster spot.

82 Martin Rucker TE Cleveland

Fast in a straight line for a big guy, but he's only a viable target when teams double team Winslow.

83 Lex Hilliard RB Miami

Hardnosed RB/FB tweener to watch if they line him up at tailback in camp.

84 Cory Boyd RB Tampa Bay

Another FB/RB tweener who might get some surprising opportunity at tailback if injuries strike.

85 Marcus Smith WR Baltimore

Love his RB after the catch game, but Williams and Clayton are the future starters in Baltimore.

86 Josh Morgan WR San Francisco

The Niners didn't address the wide receiver position early, so Morgan could make the roster as the #5 - he's a 2nd/3rd round type physical talent who gave inconsistent effort.

87 Kevin O'Connell QB New England

One of the Matts could be a goner in NE after they took this athletic big QB. Worth stashing in case he pulls a Matt Schaub in a few years.

88 Adrian Arrington WR New Orleans

New Orleans wanted him bad enough to trade for a 7th. Ok, that doesnt sound they wanted him that bad. He should go higher on name recognition.

89 Maurice Purify WR Cincinnati

Big time character issues, but big time ability too.

90 Darius Reynaud WR Minnesota

I can't figure out why he went undrafted. Stash him if he can make the PS.

91 Jonathan Goff LB New York Giants

Solid two down run stuffer, but the Gints already have their MLB.

92 JayMar Johnson WR Minnesota

I'm not sure how JayMar will get opportunity with Rice and Berrian in Minnesota, but he should make the roster and be the #5, poised to be the #3 if Allison doesn't pan out.

93 Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo

Stevie would be 20-30 spots higher in a better situation - he's a lot like Josh Reed, so he'll probably just be the #5, but he should make the roster.

94 Marcus Howard DE Indianapolis

My first thought when he was drafted was "Mark Anderson". Undersized DEs can hang in Indy.

95 Martellus Bennett TE Dallas

Like Anthony Fasano before him, Bennett is buried behind Jason Witten despite being a nice two way TE.

96 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB New England

I could see BJGE as Sammy Morris's replacement in a year or two if things break right.

97 Vince Hall LB St. Louis

Hall could surprise and stick as a UDFA, and St. Louis will find that he's a much better option in the middle on first and second down than Witherspoon, moving him back to his natural WLB position.

98 Wesley Woodyard LB Denver

This guy got no respect during the draft, and I think he can give Boss Bailey a run for his money in camp.

99 Arman Shields WR Oakland

The Raiders love those workout warriors. Stash him if he makes the final roster. Chaz Schilens, too.

100 Robert Jordan WR San Francisco

Hometown story and Draftguys TV alum could make good in Martz system.











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