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Post Combine Rookie 100: 31-40
by Sigmund Bloom

The Rookie 100 ranks players based on their possible values in deep dynasty leagues that have PPR (point per reception) and full IDP lineups. Be sure to adjust for your league's scoring and lineups and the makeup of your particular roster before using the 100 as a rookie draft cheatsheet.

Bloom 100 31-40 Discussion Thread


1-10
11-20
21-30


Rank Name Pos College
(Non-PPR Rank in Parenthesis)
31 (35) Dustin Keller TE Purdue

Man, do I love how this kid plays. He's got a warrior's mentality. Keller can make good things happen after the catch, he can get up for the acrobatic catch, and he's the most athletic of the polished pass catchers in this year's TE class. The only real hitch in his profile is that he can not be used as traditional in-line TE. The team that drafts him will have to use him in an H-Back/Slot type role, like Dallas Clark in Indy. I would bump him 10-15 spots in TE premium leagues, maybe more. In any TE required league, I would probably still be willing to take Keller as high as 15th if I needed help at the position. He's by far my favorite fantasy TE in this year's draft.

32 (31) Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee

Next to Curtis Lofton, Mayo might be the best LB that projects as an MLB in a 4-3, but I still think he's at his best on the weak side. Mayo did seem to get more comfortable in the middle as the season wore on, and had an outstanding combine. He put up massive tackle numbers this year and definitely can stay on the field as an everydown LB. I want to see him take on blockers more often (he's big and strong enough to do it), and if a 4-3 team with a long term need at MLB drafts him, he'll rocket up this list. I just prefer the physicality of Lofton and Connor's games to the superior athleticism of Mayo's.

33 (36) Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina

I hear "Blister in the Sun" in my head when I think of Simpson. Some team will be saying "Big Hands, I know you're the one" when they select him. Simpson has HUGE hands, and a good catch radius - so he can get his hands on a lot of balls, and when he does, he seals the deal. He was ultraproductive with Tyler Thigpen in 2006, and in the right role, he could be an 80 or 90 catch a year guy. He does run sloppy routes at times, and is not particularly fast or quick, which along with his level of play raises doubts about his ability to separate at the next level. With those hands, it may not matter. Every rookie draft should have at least one owner who has Simpson as their top sleeper WR, so you probably can't wait this long if you want him.

34 (32) Keith Rivers LB USC

Keith Rivers may provide much more NFL value than fantasy value when it's all said and done. There's little doubt in my mind that he is the most talented LB in this draft, and he should be the first one off the board. What I do doubt is that his ability will translate to big fantasy numbers. He's got the range to make plays all over the field, and while he's not a thumper, he is a ferocious tackler. The problem is that he has never been one to notch big tackle numbers (although he has played with some great LBs at USC), or make a lot of big plays. Rivers also looks great dropping into coverage. I'm afraid his role in the NFL may end up being more like Thomas Davis - Rivers is not a guy to take on blocks and provide a big presence in run defense. He's got the talent to do more, but he could top out as an LB3 or LB4 for fantasy.

35 (33) Chris Long DE Virginia

It's very very rare to see a player come along who could conceivably play end and outside linebacker in a 3-4 (in addition to end in a 4-3). For fantasy, this is a double edged sword. As a defensive lineman who also gets some snaps standing up, he'll be a top 5 DL. As a linebacker who sometimes puts his hand on the ground, he would have trouble being higher than an LB3. Still, he's instinctive, highly productive, a great kid, and maybe the safest pick in the draft. His ranking reflects some positional uncertainty, but if you use a 3rd rounder on Long, you'll get a guy you have in your fantasy lineup every week no matter where he lines up. If he goes to Miami with the #1 and gets listed as a DL, I could see him in the 20-25 range.

36 (34) Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech

It's very difficult to rank Adibi without knowing his destination. If he lands in Indy or Tampa, where he can be the heir to the fantasy goldmine of a cover 2 WLB role, I'd be willing to take him in the top 25. He should be an everydown LB, but is more of a chase guy who probably will not operate well in traffic (even though he did play some in the middle this year). Adibi is so good in coverage that some speculate that a move to safety could be in his future.

37 (37) Quentin Groves LB Auburn

I know we are at the height of Gholstonmania right now, but I still think Groves looks more like a Ware/Merriman type than Gholston. Groves is one of the most sudden pass rushers out of his stance you'll ever see. He turns the corner and attacks the QB like he was born to do it. I have little doubt he can move well enough to play outside in a 3-4. His toe problems held back his production this year, but otherwise, you can see the rare combination of gifts and killer instinct on his tape. He's an elite talent - the only reason he's this low is the inconsistent production of 3-4 OLBs.

38 (40) Fred Davis TE USC

It's a cliche, but Fred Davis really is an oversized WR. He was converted to TE from wideout, and like Keller, he won't function well as a true in-line tight end. He was greatly productive and clutch this year, and you can see the receiver in him when it's time to make the catch. He's pretty quick for a big guy, but looks much more lumbering on the run than Keller. He's also got more character questions (hey Dominique Byrd was a natural receiver from the TE position too...). Davis is a boom/bust pick. In the right offense, with his head on straight, he could be a starting quality fantasy TE, but there are some questions for him to overcome to become a player that a team relies on as a go-to guy.

39 (39) Adarius Bowman WR Oklahoma State

Much like Steve Slaton, it's staggering to think about how far Bowman's stock has dropped in the previous year. It seems like only Colt Brennan is having a worse postseason than Bowman. I take the numbers from his combine with a grain of salt, because I've seen Bowman get separation, but you still have to see failing a test like the combine as a red flag, not to mention his terrible week in Mobile. He seems to be on a big time slide, but his upside keeps him in the top half of this list. Bowman has the potential be a #1 for his team, and if he goes in the first 75 picks or so in April, I'll be happy to put him back in or near the top 25, but right now, he's strictly a high risk/high reward pick.

40 (38) Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech

Philip Wheeler would be closer to Curtis Lofton and the top 25 on this list if I was convinced he was going to stay inside in the pros. He did bulk up for the Senior Bowl, but many don't see him as the QB of the defense type, and he doesn't really have sideline to sideline range. He seems to have great feel for the game, and is a terrific blitzer (he came to Georgia Tech as a DE), but he might not translate well outside either because he lacks good speed and change of direction. Wheeler also reacts well in coverage, but may not be good enough to be an everydown LB. I'll be happy to spend a fourth round rookie pick on Wheeler and count on his play creating opportunity even though his game does not seem ready made for the NFL.











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