Post Combine Rookie 100: 21-30
by Sigmund Bloom

The Rookie 100 ranks players based on their possible values in deep dynasty leagues that have PPR (point per reception) and full IDP lineups. Be sure to adjust for your league's scoring and lineups and the makeup of your particular roster before using the 100 as a rookie draft cheatsheet.

Bloom 100 21-30 Discussion Thread


1-10
11-20


Rank Name Pos College
(Non-PPR Rank in Parenthesis)
21 (26) Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State

Jordy Nelson's highlight reel will pale in comparison to his peers in the top 10-15 of the WR class. He's about 6'2" 215, but plays with the precision of a smaller WR and rarely pushes corners around. He's got good (4.5) speed once he's up to speed, but doesn't really have an NFL second gear or sick quicks. Nelson's game might lack the "ooh aah" factor, but his bottomline results are still breathtaking. He just gets the job done, finds a way to get to the spot and make the catch, even when a corner pushes him off his route or blankets him in coverage. He also uses toughness, determination and guile (and some decent moves, even if they aren't sudden) to make things happen after the catch. Nelson is also physical and has one of the best sets of soft hands in this class. I think his game vaguely compares to Hines Ward, and I expect him to become that kind of security blanket receiver. The only risk I can see is that a team is happy to cast him as a third WR because he's not a trump card speed receiver, or a trump card big receiver, or a guy who can break ankles with his routes.

22 (25) Lavelle Hawkins WR California

Hawkins might not be as quick or fast as his Cal teammate DeSean Jackson, but he's a better natural receiver. Hawkins really stood out at the Senior Bowl, catching everything in sight and putting a double move on Terrell Thomas that left him literally standing still. Hawkins speed and quicks are underrated, and while he's on the small side, he plays bigger than his size. He does that by being willing to go over the middle and take the hit to make the play, and possessing one of the best games in the air of any WR in this class. Hawkins combines good ups, great body control, and a my ball mentality to make big plays. He might be the best deep ball tracker in this class - making adjustments to the ball in flight and contorting his body to block out the defender, all while looking over his shoulder. He may start out in the slot, but his playmaking ability should eventually earn "The Hawk" a starting job in the NFL.

23 (21) Curtis Lofton LB Oklahoma

Lofton got moved inside for the last few games of the 2007 season from his SLB position, and I doubt he ever gets moved back. He's my favorite LB in this class because he plays downhill and hits with a THUD while making sound form tackles. He's got that instinctive ability to flow to the play without hesitiation, but also makes terrific reads in coverage, which will keep him on the field for all three downs. Demeco Ryans name comes up in discussion of Lofton because he's not a supreme athlete, but he does have a supreme feel for the game.

24 (22) Josh Johnson QB San Diego

Of all the players I watched in person in January, no one had the EEE factor more than Johnson. First and foremost for fantasy, he's a major threat as a runner. He has deceptive 4.5 speed and makes everyone take bad angles with his long stride a la Vince Young. Don't mistake him for a running QB. Johnson will hang in the pocket until the last second, almost too calm when the bullets are flying. He needs to become more consistent as a passer, but I think he's already farther along in that respect than Tarvaris Jackson was when I saw him at the Shrine Game in 2006. Johnson is also a football brainiac and you have to be impressed with 43 TDs to 1 Interception in a season at ANY level (yes it was FCS, but still, 1 interception!?!?). Johnson has the lateral agility, football smarts, size, and speed to make it as a WR if he flames out at QB. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go in the 2nd and become a big draft day story.

25 (27) Chris Johnson RB/WR East Carolina

Johnson is one of the players I struggle with the most in this class. His speed is truly rare, posting the fastest time in combine history (4.24) and it definitely translates on the field. He pulls away in the open field just the way you would envision it. My main problem with Johnson is that I just don't think he's got a natural position. He'll get some touches out of the backfield, but he's not big or strong enough to be a feature back. He can definitely do some damage as a WR, considering he used to play the position, but I see him strictly as a deep receiver or running shallow crosses, screens, and other plays to get him the ball in space. I don't see the complete WR game. He's Devin Hester, but without the killer instinct elusiveness - although he puts defenders on their heels much in the same way - which should get him chosen in the first 50 picks come April, maybe even in the first round. But what rookie pick would you trade for Hester? I can't figure it out. Yes, Chicago is talking about him as a #1 WR, but they also thought Rex Grossman and Cedric Benson were answers at their respective positions. I just don't feel comfortable investing a 2nd in Johnson - but I do see what the great Chaos Commish pointed out about the lightbulb turning on in 2007 as a football player. I can't blame someone for taking the plunge on Johnson and counting on his team finding a way to get the ball in his hands enough to be a fantasy force, but I prefer players that I can envision at the next level without too much uncertainty about how they'll fit in.

26 (24) Kevin Smith RB Central Florida

There's no nice way to put it - I just don't like the way Kevin Smith runs the ball. Too upright, which means more to hit and losing collisions. Too much wasted movement, which catches up to an RB in the NFL. I see his legs go dead too often. I see an RB who thinks he's faster than he is, trying to bust runs outside instead of taking what is there. While his moves can leave tacklers looking dumb, he relies on them and his speed way too much. There a lot of dance in his game, and I'm not sure it will translate. I also see him go down on ankle/foot tackles way too often, I don't think he has a feel for going through trash. I can't deny that Smith is a glider with very impressive speed and burst for a back with a lanky build, but he'll have to change the rest of his game to get in spots where that asset serves him well. He has to become a smarter, more efficient runner. I also think it was a terrible decision for him to come out this year, unless he's trying to cash in on being a one year wonder. Sadly for him, I expect Smith to fall to the 3rd/4th or later, which could be the best thing for him. I understand the inclination to spend a pick on him because that glide is pretty, but I won't be the one doing it.

27 (23) Dan Connor LB Penn State

Connor is the latest product of Linebacker U., and he should be a solid IDP linebacker for a long time. Solid, but not a stud. I don't think he's as athletic as his former teammate Paul Posluszny, and lacks Puz's range and ability to make plays in pursuit. Connor plays best in straight lines, and when the play is in front of him, so like David Harris last year, he might hit the IDP jackpot inside in a 3-4.

28 (28) Steve Slaton RB West Virginia

It is staggering to think about where Slaton would have been on this list a year ago. After his all-time performance vs. Georgia, a fierce SEC defense that almost single-handedly destroyed Colt Brennan's draft stock in their BCS game this year, I was ready to anoint Slaton as one of the next great playmakers from the RB position. His second gear was lethal, his ability to get a lane with lateral agility was sharp, and Slaton also showed the willingness to run hard and tough even though he is undersized. 2007 changed everything. Noel Devine looked quicker, faster, and just better in the same offense, which made you wonder how much Slaton was taking advantage of defenses being off balance facing Rich Rodriguez's system. He was not nearly as successful creating big plays, and as the season went on, Devine took more of his touches. Then we saw a stampede of backs with equal or better speed. He was really in a "damned if you do" (enter the draft and get lost in the shuffle) / "damned if you don't" (stay at WVU and yield to Devine) situation, I understand why he wavered on the decision to enter the draft. It feels like Slaton has lost that edge. The memory of what I saw in 2006 is still strong, and I'll be happy to wager a pick in the mid to late 20s on Slaton, but not higher, even though the dividends could be huge if he regains his form.

29 (29) Mike Hart RB Michigan

It hurts to rank Hart so low. You can't ask for better RB intangibles. He's got great vision, a steady hard-nosed mentality, top notch character, and outstanding all-around instincts toting the rock. He has also has some physical assets - terrific feet and balance, and a compact powerful build that combines with his ideal body lean and pad level to create yards after contact. I don't know if there's a better back in this draft for ball security. Yet after heaping all this praise on Hart, I don't even have him in my top 10 RBs. Michigan worked him to death, he has below average initial burst and lacks a second gear or suddenness. Hart is going to be a great test case of whether doing the little things can overcome a lack of juice in your legs at the RB position in the NFL. I just don't see it, but I'll be happy to say I was wrong if he hits because I root for players like Hart.

30 (30) Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech

Choice is not THAT different from Matt Forte, but the disparity in their rankings shows the razor's edge between prospective starting RB and prospective backup in the NFL. I have little to knock in Choice's game. He's got good lateral agility, he's hard-nosed and will deliver the blow, and he's got good body lean and pad level. Choice is also a smooth passcatcher out of the backfield and has the vision and patience to find and run to daylight. The problem is that his power and burst don't stand out enough for him to really fit in as a starter in the NFL. Like Hart, he might be productive in a short stint if injuries force him into the starting lineup, but he just looks like a backup at the next level.











NFL Draftguys is not affiliated in any way with the National Football League or the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). Any school or player images displayed within this site are the property of their respective teams and should not be used without consent. This website and its content is the exclusive property of the owners and proprietors of NFL Draftguys. If you wish to reproduce or reuse the original content available here, please contact us.