With the NFL Draft just a few days away, everyone is wondering where the top prospects are going to land. But more questions remain after the first round – there are 255 picks, after all – so what about the rest of the athletes?
Let’s start by taking a look at which QBs are going to be drafted, from the perspective of both what round they are likely to come off the board and also what teams are likely to select them at that given time.
The first two are pretty easy – at least in saying that they will be drafted in Round 1. No one questions that JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn will go 1-2 at QB in the draft, but the uncertainty is all about what pick and what team takes them. Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland and even Minnesota are all in the running for these elite talents, and all four clubs have Top 10 picks. Odds are that Russell will go to Oakland and Quinn could stumble downward (barring a trade) if Cleveland goes RB (Adrian Peterson) and Minnesota looks towards defense.
With so many questions at the top of Round 1, what hopes do we have to predict seven rounds’ worth of quarterbacks? Well, we have a few pieces of information to help. First, the guys here at NFLDraftGuys have all ranked their Top 15 QBs, so I can use that to make a consensus of the Top 10-15 prospects. Secondly, I have last year’s NFL Draft to aid me in seeing a few things about how likely teams are (and aren’t) to select a quarterback.
The first thing I gathered from last year’s NFL Draft was that 11 QBs were taken on draft weekend, not to mention a few undrafted free agents (UDFAs) that landed on NFL rosters. That tells me that I should be looking at between 10 and 15 QBs to come off the board next weekend. The other thing I learned was that no team selected two quarterbacks, so even if a team is desperate for a signal caller, they are not very likely to pick more than one.
Let’s work through this by developing that consensus list. Using three experts’ lists (Sigmund Bloom, Sean Baca, and Cecil Lammey) I have the following 15 QBs:
- JaMarcus Russell – LSU
- Brady Quinn – Notre Dame
- Drew Stanton – Michigan State
- Kevin Kolb – Houston
- Troy Smith – Ohio State
- Trent Edwards – Stanford
- John Beck – BYU
- Jeff Rowe – Nevada
- Jordan Palmer – UTEP
- Chris Leak – Florida
- Tyler Palko – Pittsburgh
- Zac Taylor – Nebraska
- Jared Zabransky – Boise State
- Isaiah Stanback – Washington
- Matt Gutierrez – Idaho State
These QBs all appeared on at least two of the three experts’ Top 15 lists.
Now I do not expect all 15 to be drafted by Pick #255 on April 29th, but I do expect all 15 to be in an NFL camp by July. So with this in mind, let’s take a look at where these guys could be selected and which teams that have needs at QB would take them at this point of the NFL Draft.
Drew Stanton – Michigan State
Kevin Kolb – Houston
Stanton should be selected at the beginning of Round 2 by one of the two teams that have big needs at QB (Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, and Miami) that did not get Russell or Quinn. Detroit is added here because the Lions have an aging QB in Jon Kitna at the helm, and unless they plan to have no competition for Josh McCown or Dan Orlovsky going forward, they have to be thinking about a new arm as their #3. Miami’s a bad situation all around – even if they do trade for Trent Green – as they have lost faith in Daunte Culpepper and they don’t want to put all their faith going forward in Cleo Lemon.
With those four teams in the mix, look for Stanton to go early in Round 2. Stanton looks the classic part of NFL QB, something that is definitely missing from the Dolphins. Will new head coach Cam Cameron go that route? I would think so, and Miami has pick #41 to decide – something I think that they will certainly do if he remains on the board. The same can be said for Kevin Kolb – so I expect him to also be gone by about Pick 45. Detriot would seem to make the most sense here as Kolb has been tagged as a classic West Coast Offense kind of guy – a style that would gel very nicely with Mike Martz in Motor City.
The one team that could sneak into this mix is the Baltimore Ravens, who have alluded to taking a QB early this year. Steve McNair is getting older by the minute, and he’s been hit on more times than Lindsay Lohan. While Kyle Boller is a capable backup, he’s a free agent after this coming season and that leaves just Drew Olsen on the team. Olsen is a nice sleeper and has done well in NFL Europa, but he’s not going to remind many of Johnny Unitas. Baltimore may address other needs with their first pick (they have bigger needs, like offensive line), expect them to be amongst the next to address their quarterback situation.
Troy Smith – Ohio State
Trent Edwards – Stanford
Smith and Edwards should be gone by the end of Round 3, ending Day 1 with an even half-dozen QBs off of the draftboard. Edwards has been shooting up the draft boards as of late and I would not be surprised at all to see him in Round 2 to the Ravens (61). Baltimore likes the classic pocket passer, which fits Edwards to a tee. Troy Smith could be packing his bags to San Francisco (76 and 97) or New Orleans (88), where with the right coaching he could transform from a quarterback “project” to one with solid potential. Both squads need backup quarterbacks, as the Niners have little left after Alex Smith, while the Saints have even less. Go ahead, try and name either backup….. exactly. Neither team has a young arm in the wings and are relying on old veterans as their backup plans should the starter go down. So – unless you are confident that Trent Dilfer (SF) or Jamie Martin (NO) can get the job done, expect both clubs to go after a QB on Day 1.
John Beck – BYU
Beck will be on of those QBs that are still left after Day 1 that will have a few teams itching to draft as Day 2 starts. Look for him to become a 49er (104) or a Tampa Bay Buccaneer (102) right out of the gate. Why Tampa? Well, Chris Simms is their starter once again, but he took a beating (and severe injury) in 2006. Jeff Garcia and the semi-retired Jake Plummer aren’t much of a look towards the future, which is what the Bucs really need. Bruce Gradkowski was less than stellar last season as he was thrust into the starting role, so Tampa Bay would like to have another young gun in camp. Beck himself is also considered to be another West Coast QB type, something Gruden would love to bring to camp. Add all of this to the fact that head coach Jon Gruden has an affinity for collecting QBs, and you get a strong idea why Beck could be wearing Pewter this fall.
Jeff Rowe – Nevada
Jordan Palmer – UTEP
Chris Leak – Florida
Tyler Palko – Pittsburgh
Now the speculation really begins. These four quarterbacks are going to land somewhere – but where? Palko to Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense in the local market perspective, but I don’t know if that is terribly wise given Big Ben and his youth at the helm for the Steelers. Yes the Steelers have little in the way of a backup (Charlie Batch leads the way here), so another option to learn the new offense this season seems like a good idea.
Rowe is more of a project and could go to New England as they have Matt Cassel behind Tom Brady, but Cassel has been rumored to be “the next Matt Schaub” and move on after 2008. The Patriots have 10 picks this year and can afford to take some risk, so I like that move in Round 5 at 171 if Rowe is still there. I think the Steelers beat them to the punch and take Rowe at 156 on Round 5. This would seem to fit them well as Pittsburgh plans on going to a more wide open offense with 3 and 4 wide receiver sets, something that Rowe is very used to running in Nevada.
Cincinnati is also an interesting match for Jordan Palmer, reuniting the Palmer brothers. Palmer put up great numbers at UTEP and could fill in should “big brother” get hurt, and the Bengals need a quality backup. His style is much like Carson’s – big, athletic QB with classic pocket passer characteristics. The Bengals have little after the starter – they have just a lone veteran on the roster after Palmer – in this case, Doug Johnson. That’s enough of a reason for me to predict Jordan Palmer to Cincy in Round 6 (187).
This leaves Palko and Chris Leak, who are tough players to slot. Philadelphia, Green Bay and Jacksonville all love to just “take a QB” if they can, but the Eagles have just six picks and the Packers have bigger needs and aren’t giving up on Aaron Rodgers. The Jaguars have too many QBs as it is, so where can these guys go? Palko is a tough one to place, as several teams would still want a QB but Palko’s style doesn’t seem like a good fit for many. Green Bay is my best guess, but I think it is highly possible that Palko’s questionable arm strength and less than stellar accuracy could leave him falling into the last round. As for Leak, my best guesses are Arizona (215), Buffalo (222 or 239), Seattle (210) or the Giants (224, 250). I’m thinking Seattle, since Matt Hasselbeck will be 32 (yes, I know, he looks 42) this September and Seneca Wallace just cannot get into the lineup aside from being a gadget wide receiver. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Wallace traded during the draft for another pick.
Two teams are new mentions here – the Cardinals and the Giants. Out in the desert, Arizona has Matt Leinart and, well, Kurt Warner. Yeah, they need a new quarterback, but not one that would necessarily challenge or push Leinart. The Giants? Well, after Eli Manning there’s the Round Mound of Touchdowns – Jared Lorenzen, but they did recently add Anthony Wright to the roster. It wouldn’t surprise me for them to take a late flier on a QB, but they have so many needs they may forego a quarterback in this draft.
Zac Taylor – Nebraska
Jared Zabransky – Boise State
Isaiah Stanback – Washington
Matt Gutierrez – Idaho State
Some decent talent remains here. The one I like to most is Zabransky to New England to replace Cassel, or to Buffalo as a quality understudy to J.P. Losman, something the Bills do need. The rest are a “best guess”, with possibly Gutierrez to the Cowboys as a potential 3rd quarterback and growing up to back up Tony Romo. Taylor ran the West Coast Offense in college, so an interesting Day 2 match could be Taylor to the Rams in the final round (248, 249) to compete with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the #3 QB behind Marc Bulger and Gus Frerotte.
Stanback can still find a home as an UDFA, heading to either Seattle, Arizona or even Philadelphia. He is far better than just “camp arm” and should challenge to make a roster, wherever he lands.
However it shakes out, as always, there will be interest and intrigue with every selection. It may take several years to see which QBs develop and prosper, but one thing is certain – there will be new gunslingers looking to prove that they belong starting this May.
