While obsessive NFL fans react to their team's draft picks, another group of even more obsessive fans react to picks based on how it affects their dynasty fantasy football teams. Every year, some owners see their players' values take a huge hit, while others breathe a sigh a relief when a team passes on the opportunity to bring in a rookie to challenge a player in a precarious position. Draft day will shed more light on the futures of these players' values, and will change on draft day no matter what happens.
A few overarching points:
- Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are huge wildcards: Peterson is good enough that a team without a glaring need could still be convinced to take him (a la Bush in 2006), and Lynch might be falling to late 1st, which puts him in play for good teams that don't have a glaring need at RB.
- The TE class is very weak after Greg Olsen and Zach Miller, and TEs usually take a year to really fit in - I don't see much changing in that landscape.
- The depth of the WR class means that rookie wonders could come out of the second day (see Colston, Marques).
QB
Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota
If Brady Quinn falls out of the top 5, his slide may stop in Minnesota. Jackson has promising upside, but the Vikings reached for him. Quinn may be the more the NFL ready QB despite spending last year in college, and he would obviously take over as the "QB of the future".
Josh McCown, QB, Detroit
The rumors of the Raiders pursuing McCown won't go away. His minimal dynasty value would get a good bounce if Oakland and Detroit pull a draft day trade. The trade would also give a boost to Dan Orlovsky, who would inherit the backup role to an aging Jon Kitna.
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Miami
Brady Quinn could fall to the Fins. They could trade for Trent Green. How they handle the QB position on draft day, and in the upcoming months, will be a strong sign of how much they're counting on Daunte in 2007. Cleo Lemon could be a big beneficiary if Dolphins don't make an aggressive move to improve the QB position.
Andrew Walter, QB, Oakland
I would be shocked if the Raiders don't address the QB position on draft day via a first day pick or a trade, but if they don't, Walter could be starting on opening day. While that makes me shudder for Walter and the Oakland offense, it would be a temporary boost to his dynasty value.
Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland
If JaMarcus Russell doesn't go #1, #3 to Cleveland seems very possible. If he does go #1, then Brady Quinn comes into play. Frye and Anderson being relevant fantasy QBs is probably temporary, a franchise QB pick at #3 would just put their demise on an accelerated schedule.
RB
Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota
Taylor owners should get out their prayer beads if Adrian Peterson is still on the board when Minnesota's #7 pick is on the clock. The team is desperate for playmakers on offense and Peterson would certainly fill that need. Chester's owners are not out of the woods if the Vikings don't land Peterson, they could still take an RB later on the first day - Ciatrick Fason and Mewelde Moore don't seem to be Childress favorites.
Laurence Maroney, RB, New England
It could be Brian Leonard in the first, it could be Lorenzo Booker in the third, but no matter who and where, there's a possibility that New England will get another back to help Maroney shoulder the load. Speaking of shoulders, how early the Pats take an RB (if they do) could be an indicator of how they feel about Maroney's long term durability.
Anthony Thomas, RB, Buffalo
Thomas's value actually has more to gain than lose on draft day, since many are projecting Marshawn Lynch to the Bills, a pick that is seeming more like a reach as Lynch's stock falls. It's hard to picture the Bills ending the first day without a new RB, but Thomas and Bills coach Dick Jauron have had success in the past. Only a Lynch pick puts a real dent in Thomas's newfound value.
Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta
Whether it's Michael Bush later on, or a pick like Brian Leonard with one of the Falcons two early 2nds, or even Adrian Peterson at the #8, the dirty birds need to get a pile pusher to compliment the dynamic Mississippi State product. This is another case where most people are already factoring in a first day rookie RB challenging Norwood for touches, so a later pick would actually boost Norwood's value.
Vernand Morency, RB, Green Bay
Morency's another RB that almost none of us expect to actually be sitting atop the depth chart come August, so he really can only gain value on draft day. Marshawn Lynch is already in a Packers uniform in the minds of many draftniks, so that has been absorbed into Morency's value. If they opt to wait until later on the first day to take a guy like Kenny Irons, Morency becomes a legit RB3 option for 2007.
Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland
Lewis's value for the long term is on life support. His short term value could be ambushed by an Adrian Peterson pick at #3. Even if the Browns don't select "All Day", they could go with an RB later on the first day, an RB that will start to threaten Lewis's touches from day one. I wouldn't get too excited if they don't draft an RB, Lewis was weak in a good situation last year, what can he possibly do in Cleveland?
Ahman Green, RB, Houston
Ahman's owners should be holding their breath if Peterson gets past Atlanta. Green might have two good years left as the starter in Houston, but that number becomes zero if the Texans are lucky enough to keep the Palestine, Texas native in his home state.
Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia
It could be Brian Leonard in the first, or Tony Hunt later on, but it seems like everyone wants to project the Eagles taking a short yardage back to help Westbrook. A draft pick of Leonard could knock Westbrook from that elite top 4-6 tier.
Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis, DeDe Dorsey, RB, Indianapolis,
Lots of possibilities here, ranging from the Colts ignoring the position (big win for Addai, and temporary vote of confidence in Dorsey), to the Colts taking a competent backup type on the 2nd day (big win for Addai), to a nightmare for Addai owners of a pick like Brian Leonard in the first. It would be unwise for the Colts to expect Addai to hold up under the load of 300+ carries - something he did not do at LSU.
Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona
Ken Whisenhunt has said that the Cards will take Adrian Peterson if he's still on the board at #5. That could be a ruse, and it could be dependant on whether Joe Thomas is still available. Either way, you've been warned.
Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati
It doesn't look like Perry will be ready for training camp - meaning it's time to start wondering if he'll ever be the same after working on a broken ankle/fibula for a few weeks last year. Watch closely to see if they draft a back that has a similar skill set to Perry's as a signal of their feelings about his long term health.
Michael Turner, RB, San Diego
Another player who might be traded on draft day, most likely to Tennessee, which would then domino into...
LenDale White, RB, Tennessee
Does anyone believe that Tennessee is going to roll with just LenDale? They could trade for Turner, or take a first day RB, but I doubt that their depth chart at RB looks the same on April 30.
WR
Randy Moss, WR, Oakland(?)
A trade to Green Bay would be a big boost for him. I can see Favre actually getting Moss "on board" and Moss will have his own reasons to play hard, putting on the uniform of a team whose fans hated him with a passion. Moss to Green Bay would set off a domino effect of value changes to Donald Driver (down), Greg Jennings (down), Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry (up, if they don't take Calvin Johnson), Aaron Rodgers (up assuming he goes to Oakland in the trade) and Brett Favre (up).
Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall, WR, Tampa Bay
This is probably as simple as "Does Tampa land Calvin Johnson after all?" If they do, these young WRs value obviously take a hit. If the Bucs don't have the chance to take Calvin, they will have opportunities to take one of many excellent WR prospects later in the first day - which we can track as an indicator of how they feel about these two WRs. If they have a chance to take Calvin and they pass... we'll be in an alternate universe, because that just won't happen.
Jeff Webb, Chris Hannon, WR, Kansas City
There's little doubt that neither Samie Parker nor Eddie Kennison will be starting for KC at WR in a few years. Many are projecting KC taking a first round WR because, in addition to the obvious long term need, the #23 spot represents good value at the position, likely delivering a player like Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Ted Ginn Jr., or Dwayne Jarrett. The second round also offers the opportunity to take WRs that project as good #2s (Anthony Gonzalez, Steve Smith) or possible #1s (Sidney Rice, Jason Hill). If the Chiefs emerge from the first day without a WR, it would be reasonable to infer that they like these youngsters.
TE
Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis
No, this isn't about whether the Colts take a TE, it's about whether they take a WR that can step in and contend for the wide open WR3 spot. Clark did an excellent job when asked to fill this role, and if the Colts don't take a WR in the first 3-4 rounds, give his value a bump. Clark could put up top 10 numbers if he lines up in the slot for a good share of the snaps.
L.J. Smith, TE, Philadelphia
Smith has been getting fat off having Donovan McNabb as a QB. His contract is up after this year. The Eagles are always a team to get out ahead of holes before they open, so a 3rd or 4th round selection of a TE could signal that this is the end of the line for Smith as an Eagle.
