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2007 Bloom Rookie 100 - Post Draft Version: 1-50

by Sigmund Bloom

The Rookie 100 ranks players based on their possible values in deep dynasty leagues that have PPR (point per reception) and full IDP lineups. Be sure to adjust for your league's scoring and lineups and the makeup of your particular roster before using the 100 as a rookie draft cheatsheet.

5/1: Folks, the draft has barely had 24 hours to settle in my exhausted brain. This represents my "first take" on the situation/talent combinations created this weekend in Radio City Music Hall, but changes in these rankings will continue to ebb and flow all the way up to week 1. Remember, Marques Colston looked like a wasted pick in minicamp.

	Name	Position	Team	Ht/Wt	Prev. Rank
1	Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota	6'2" 217	1
Chester Taylor goes back to his old Baltimore role, don't let that scare you off. Adrian will unlock the massive advantage McKinnie and Hutch create on the left side of that line in a way Chester could not.
2	Calvin Johnson	WR	Detroit	6'5" 239	2
There is no better fantasy destination for a WR than a Mike Martz offense. Possible #1 in start 3, PPR leagues.
3	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Buffalo	5'11" 215	3
His situation is not as good as you think it is. Lynch was an RBBC back at Cal, and the draft position of Dwayne Wright makes me think that Buffalo has designs to make him an RBBC back again. He will still be a starting quality fantasy RB, but he may never be a #1.
4	Robert Meachem	WR	New Orleans	6'2" 214	6
New Orleans passing offense presents terrific opportunity for Meachem, as does lining up opposite Marques Colston. Meachem has the best QB of any of the top rookie WRs.
5	JaMarcus Russell	QB	Oakland	6'6" 265	4
No brainer if you need a QB. He can grow along with a hand-picked group of young weapons in Bush, Miller, and Higgins. He'll be an instant top 20 fantasy QB because of his big play ability, and he's got top 3-5 upside.
6	Sidney Rice	WR	Minnesota	6'4" 200	5
Don't expect Rice to do much in year 1, but he has the ability and opportunity to be a true #1, and I have believed that a feature WR role was his fate since mid-2005.
7	Dwayne Bowe	WR	Kansas City	6'2" 221	7
Could start from day 1 and become the #1 WR target on the roster by the end of the year. I won't argue against taking him at 5, or even 4 if you don't need a QB. Rice, Bowe, and Meachem are very tight in my rankings.
8	Brandon Jackson	RB	Green Bay	5'10" 210	21
Jackson will be overdrafted in most rookie drafts. Yes, he has the ability to be a bell cow in a zone blocking scheme offense, but he has never carried the load for more than half a season, and his list of injuries is longer than his list of accomplishments. I can't blame you for taking him 4th in traditional start 2 WR, non-PPR leagues.
9	Patrick Willis	LB	San Francisco	6'1" 242	15
The savings bond of the rookie draft first round draft picks. His upside is limited to no higher than a top 75-100 overall IDP dynasty player, but he's very likely to hit it.
10	Chris Henry	RB	Tennessee	5'11" 230	41
I feel confident that Henry will be on none of my dynasty teams. If you own Henry and he starts hot, sell high. On the other hand, Vince Young opens up running lanes. If VY takes the step forward that we know he can, any of 75 RBs in the league could capitalize on this situation. There is no player in this draft class that I am more conflicted about. Love the situation and enthusiasm the team has for Henry, but hate Henry the player. He probably won't last this long anyway, so this amounts to a do not draft ranking.
11	Michael Bush	RB	Oakland	6'2" 243	22
This is a pick for 2008. LaMont Jordan's contract takes a huge leap, and Dominic Rhodes is only a backup quality RB. If Bush can actually take the field for the beginning of training camp, he moves into the top 10.
12	Greg Olsen	TE	Chicago	6'6" 254	11
As much as I hate Olsen's game, I think he's at least as good as Desmond Clark. Clark's numbers might be Olsen's downside. His first round status means Chicago plans on giving him a big role. You have to take him here if you need TE help because the dropoff is severe.
13	Dwayne Jarrett	WR	Carolina	6'4" 219	8
Jarrett having Keyshawn as a mentor is a big plus, but Steve Smith will be the #1 for the forseeable future. Carolina also seems to be satisfied with David Carr as their QB of the future, not comforting for the future of their passing offense. UPDATE: Keyshawn has been reportedly cut - this earns Jarrett a bump
14	Drew Stanton	QB	Detroit	6'3" 226	23
This ranking drops if Detroit installs a conventional offense when Mike Martz returns to the head coaching ranks, but remember, Stanton will still be throwing to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. He's a fantasy boom/bust special.
15	Ted Ginn	WR	Miami	5'11" 178	9
Clearly, the Dolphins see him as a Steve Smith/Santana Moss in their offense. I am skeptical about that outcome, but he will get the chance to be a true #1. It is somewhat disturbing that Ginn might miss upwards of six months because of a foot injury suffered at the bottom a celebration pile - you have to question his durability. I'm also concerned that John Beck doesn't have the deep arm to capitalize on Ginn's jets. I suspect Ginn won't be there in the 2nd in most rookie drafts.
16	Brady Quinn	QB	Cleveland	6'4" 232	10
I have a strong feeling that Cleveland is going to crater, and leave the new regime with no first round pick to stop the bleeding, which will in turn cause Quinn to follow the path of the last two golden boy QBs to play on sinking ships - Joey Harrington and David Carr. Still, a starting QB is a safe commodity in a dynasty league, and a good value in the 2nd round. He'll be gone long before this pick in every rookie draft.
17	Paul Posluszny	LB	Buffalo	6'2" 238	32
We know he'll be a three down tackling machine. If his 2005 explosiveness returns, he could be this year's DeMeco Ryans. One of the safest picks in the 2nd round.
18	Lorenzo Booker	RB	Miami	5'11" 191	13
I love Booker's talent and I'm sure he'll make an impact. He could have landed in a better situation, but he still has the potential to play Reggie Bush to Brown's Deuce McAllister, which is gold in PPR leagues. Bump him up a few spots if Ricky Williams is not a Dolphin in week 1 because it shows that the team has a decent sized role in mind for Lorenzo.
19	Craig Davis	WR	San Diego	6'1" 200	31
Buster was clearly drafted to be the future #1 WR in San Diego (Sorry Vincent). I'm skeptical about his ability to ever live up to that role, but you have to love that the team will give him every chance to seize it.
20	Steve Smith	WR	NY Giants	6'0" 197	16
Smith should settle into the #2 role by 2008, and Eli Manning should find that he's a more dependable WR than Plax.
21	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	Indianapolis	6'0" 193	20
The mere chance that Marvin Harrison could retire in the next 2-3 years + the size of the pie available in a Peyton Manning offense makes Gonzalez worth a second. Harrison owners should make sure to get their hands on the other Gonzo.
22	Jacoby Jones	WR	Houston	6'3" 210	30
There is little standing between Jacoby and a starting spot. EEEEE Brandon Marshall may soon become EEEE Jacoby Jones.
23	Jon Beason	LB	Carolina	6'0" 237	41
Beason will have a chance to become the MLB when Dan Morgan hits the "one concussion too many" number (if he hasn't already), but he is less ideal for that role than Puz is in Buffalo.
24	John Beck	QB	Miami	6'2" 215	40
Beck may start in week 1, but he strikes me as the kind of QB that will never crack the top 15 for fantasy. He'll be a sell high if he starts out hot. Cam Cameron loves him and he helped make weak arm Brees into a stud, so there's a chance he becomes the fantasy surprise of this class.
25	Jason Hill	WR	San Francisco	6'1" 204	25
Hill has to contend with Darrell Jackson in the near term, and Vernon Davis as a possible #1 target in the long term, but his clutch quality may endear him to Alex Smith.
26	LaRon Landry	S	Washington	6'1" 213	38
Landry is probably going to go earlier than this in every draft, but it's hard to know exactly how he'll be used. He could end up being an elite safety, so I wouldn't argue with a ranking in the 2nd round.
27	Johnnie Lee Higgins	WR	Oakland	6'0" 186	17
Higgins has a chance to make a big splash early if Jerry Porter does not rededicate himself to football. I believe he slid too far and will outperform his draft position - of all the WRs on the roster, he has the best deep speed to take advantage of Russell's big arm.
28	Antonio Pittman	RB	New Orleans	5'11" 207	12
RB scarcity dictates that Pittman is worth a 3rd, but I don't see Deuce fading for at least two more years.
29	Kenny Irons	RB	Cincinnati	5'11" 203	14
Rudi is signed at a reasonable deal throughout 2009, and Kenny Irons is one of the least ideal RBs to fill the role of Chris Perry, who could be permanently hobbled. Again, RB scarcity still dictates a 3rd round value.
30	Zach Miller	TE	Oakland	6'5" 256	19
Miller's path to becoming the starter is clear, he should be a solid fantasy TE2, but I don't know if he'll ever be startable in 12 team leagues.
31	David Harris	LB	NY Jets	6'2" 243	34
Harris should put up terrific tackle numbers as an ILB in the 3-4, but he might not be a 3 down LB, and he's not a big play LB. Still, he'll be startable in leagues where LB40 and higher end up counting every week.
32	Aundrae Allison	WR	Minnesota	6'0" 198	24
Allison is more likely to contribute early than Sidney Rice, but his slide to the 5th round is troubling. I still believe in him, but I could be putting too much stock in his outstanding Senior Bowl week.
33	Buster Davis	LB	Arizona	5'10" 239	43
Buster should get every chance to win an inside spot in the 3-4 hybrid they'll be installing in Arizona, but, like Harris, I don't think he's got the skills to stay on the field for three downs.
34	Anthony Waters	ILB	San Diego	6'3" 245	63
Waters 3rd round draft status indicates that he is well on his way to being healthy. I think he can beat out Wilhelm/Cooper by the middle of the season. I have a feeling he would have been a top 50 pick without the ACL tear. The Lance Mitchell story looms as a cautionary tale.
35	Dwayne Wright	RB	Buffalo	6'0" 228	29
Wright is a sneaky RB sleeper. His 4th round draft status shows that Buffalo believes he can come all the way back from his 2004 knee injury. Don't be surprised if he and Lynch become a long term RBBC.
36	Kevin Kolb	QB	Philadelphia	6'3" 218	35
The problem with taking Kolb is that you don't know how long you'll have to sit on him to see any value. Kolb carries a bust risk, but he's a must draft for McNabb owners.
37	Brian Leonard	RB	St. Louis	6'2" 226	18
The only place I can think of that would have been a worse destination for an RB is San Diego. He'll help St. Louis win games, and over the course of the season, he'll have decent numbers, but he won't be reliable enough week to week to trust in your lineup.
38	Laurent Robinson	WR	Atlanta	6'2" 199	47
I love Laurent's skills and opportunity to emerge as a primary WR in Atlanta in 08 or 09, but Mike Vick flat out kills WR fantasy value.
39	Anthony Spencer	DE/OLB	Dallas	6'3" 261	61
Spencer could have 10+ sacks plus solid tackle numbers as opposing offenses will likely give DeMarcus Ware more attention.
40	Lawrence Timmons	LB	Pittsburgh	6'1" 234	44
I know Tomlin compared him to Derrick Brooks, but I just don't see it. He'll be worth a 3rd in sack heavy leagues, but I'm not a fan.
41	Quincy Black	OLB	Tampa Bay	6'2" 240	66
Black is the heir to Derrick Brooks, sorry Cato June owners.
42	Paul Williams	WR	Tennessee	6'1" 205	48
Here's a huge upside pick. If Williams can start giving consistent effort and energy, he could become the #1 Vince sorely needs. He has the physical ability, he just needs a renewed dedication to the game. Vince does have a positive effect in that area. Stranger things have happened...
43	Mike Walker	WR	Jacksonville	6'2" 209	39
Walker is a sneaky pick because Jacksonville lacks a go-to WR, and Walker could emerge as the most dependable WR on short to intermediate stuff very quickly.
44	James Jones	WR	Green Bay	6'1" 207	45
Jones could be the #3 in Green Bay from day one, and Greg Jennings partner in next 2-3 years. Must draft for Driver owners.
45	Gaines Adams	DE	Tampa Bay	6'5" 258	42
Adams might not be stout enough against the run to put up good tackle numbers, but he'll be a sack artist, and should be a 3rd round pick in sack heavy leagues.
46	Troy Smith	QB	Baltimore	6'0" 225	26
Scoff, but Smith might be given the keys to franchise in 08 if he develops well. Must draft for McNair owners.
47	Aaron Rouse	SS/OLB	Green Bay	6'4" 223	67
Rouse should get to be an in-the-box safety while Nick Collins roams the deep middle. Questions about his recovery speed in coverage and his disappointing senior season remain, but he has much fantasy upside as any safety in this draft.
48	Sabby Piscitelli	S	Tampa Bay	6'3" 224	65
Just when Jermaine Philips thought he could stop looking over his shoulder... I expect one of the best names in the draft to figure heavily into the Bucs future plans.
49	Stephen Nicholas	LB	Atlanta	6'2" 232	73
Nicholas fell into one of the best immediate situations, as Demorrio Williams will be out through the summer with a torn pec. I saw Nicholas as an SLB, but he could hit the fantasy jackpot if he excels in Williams WLB spot in training camp.
50	Isaiah Stanback	UTIL	Dallas	6'3" 216	74
Stanback has a chance to become the Hines Ward of the Cowboys. The Cowboys had a success with QB convert Patrick Crayton. A lot of us expected a WR pick on the first day, so you have to wonder if the Cowboys REALLY like Isaiah since he was their first WR(ish) pick coming in the 4th despite having two starters in their waning years.