February 4, 2008

So right out the gate, you're gonna see some differences here. In fact, I have erected a steel barrier around the Garda Compound to keep out angry Arkansas boosters. Cause here lies a Mock where McFadden drops out of the top 5.

Why you ask? Well, for my first mock I tried very hard to concentrate as much on what teams need as what was shiny. Let me be clear Darren McFadden is the shiniest of shinies. And as the Combine and Pro Days come and go, he might no, I'll say he likely WILL move up my little draft here. But the teams at the top of the draft the Raiders, the Phins, the Jets, Atlanta they have greater needs than 1 RB. Sure, they might take him. He's a game breaker. That is to say, he can literally break games, leaving them and the defenses he played against in college, crying in small pieces saying "that was that"

But will he save these franchises's I'm not sure he can. And I honestly think that the franchises who pass on him in this mock would be for the most part better served going to fill bigger needs.

As you will see in the draft below, even teams playing with house money (New England) are likely to look another way.

On the other hand, rumors abound (again) Dallas is about to make a play for the #1. That can only be for McFadden, right?

Anyway, that's my initial defense. If I were a betting man and I am I think that the longer McFadden might fall, the better the chance there is a trade for him. But for purposes of this mock, I'm not guessing at trades - I'll never get this thing done otherwise.

Feel free to send feedback ([email protected]) I think there may be a lot and keep in mind this is the first of many. Things will change rapidly as we close on the glorious day that is the 2008 NFL Rookie Draft!

Round 1

1. Miami Jake Long, OT, Michigan

As of today (1/228/08) the Phins are still shopping this pick. It wouldn't shock me if come Draft Day, they didn't have it anymore but as expensive as that can be, it wouldn't shock me if they still had it either. As it's a no trades mock, let's assume they keep it - Parcells loves D but they desperately need more improvement along the O-line and by the time pick 2 comes along, there will be a significant drop off in all likelihood. Biggest questions for him will be durability. This is a pick that will be debated for a long time, but I'm going to lean towards the O-line, as they need it. Also factor in that an OL is the least sexy pick ever for a #1. (Alternates DE Chris Long, VA & DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU, QB Matt Ryan, BC)

2. St. Louis Chris Long, DE, VA

With this pick the Rams can continue to build a solid D, especially along the Defensive Line. Long comes from great football blood (you might know his dad, an obscure player from the Raiders with the first name Howie), and is a versatile, strong, hard worker, whose tenacity makes him a hard man to stop. While the Rams have bigger needs (especially with Orlando Pace? continued health issues), at this point, Long is the best value. (Alternates - DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU, OT Jake Long, Michigan if still available)

3. Atlanta Matt Ryan, QB, BC

One thing we learned this year is that the Falcons need a QB. Harrington, Leftwitch et al are not the answer. Right now, Matt Ryan is far and away the best QB on the board and the Falcons would be hard pressed to pass on a guy who, by all accounts is a natural leader something they've lacked at the position for a while now. Moves well in the pocket, has good touch, reads D's well, solid character guy (which all things considered might loom large for ownership) and is coming off a very good Senior year. Why not McFadden? Because they are far closer to legit at RB than at the QB trainwreck. (Alternates - DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU & OT Ryan Clady, Boise State)

4. Oakland Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

A LOT of folks think McFadden will go here and yes Mr. Davis loves the shiny! But honestly there are greater needs. And listen, in many respects, Calvin Johnson was the shinier pick last year for the Raiders, and they went with need (although it isn't like Russell was chopped liver, right?). In 2007, the Raider D just wasn't everything it seemed to be in 2006 with Dorsey, they will likely get a top prospect that will put the Silver and Black back on the road to respectability. And with the retirement of Warren Sapp defensive tackle has become perhaps their #1 need. I wouldn't rule out a trade here either someone might like a shot at McFadden and pay handsomely for it. (Alternates RB Darren McFadden, ARK & DT Sedrick Ellis USC)

5. Kansas City OT Ryan Clady, BOISE STATE

Now, this may seem early for a second O-lineman. But the Chiefs need O-line help and they need it yesterday. While I might see them going defense or even WR, it's definitely too early for it. Clady has some downside, and I'm partial to Sam Baker out of USC, but with Baker's injury concerns stemming from last season, Clady is the safer way to go. While they need help in multiple areas, they are desperate for O-line help and so even reaching, if Long is gone (and as I said with Miami's pick, it's not a sexy pick for your first) I think the Chiefs fill a big need on the line. (Alternates OT Sam Baker, USC, DE Vernon Gholston, THE Ohio State)

6. New York Jets DE Vernon Gholston, OSU

Gholston has a lot to prove at the Combine and OSU's Pro Day to justify this pick you say? Maybe. The Jets would be insane to pass on McFadden? Could be. It sure is hard to drop him this far. But here's the thing: Gholston is a beast of a pass rusher and comes in hard off the edge. It's possible they could even move him to linebacker, but even if they don't he would be a solid addition to a defense that has lots of room to improve. If the Jets can get pressure on the QB, the secondary (especially rookie stud CB Darrelle Revis) can just drop into coverage instead of wasting time hanging closer to the O-line. Could make a huge difference for a team still adapting to it's 3-4 and has lost some key players on D over the last few years (Abraham to Falcs, Vilma to injury and scheme and Ellis to?. I dunno, suckitude?). (Alternates - RB Darren McFadden, ARK & OT Sam Baker, USC)

7. New England (from SF) CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida

Let's face it Belichick didn't get where he is by drafting luxuries. And while McFadden is a great value for them here, but it's a luxury pick and a more pressing need is CB. They lose Asante Samuel to free agency and can't tag him and are unlikely to pay the type of money required in free agency. While Jenkins isn't Samuels, we all know Belichick gets more out of his players than anyone else and Jenkins will likely turn into a very solid player under Coach Bill's tutelage. Side note: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is flying up draft boards based on a ridiculous week at the Senior Bowl, capped by a huge game. If he keeps it up, he could be the #1 CB off the board but I'm not crowning him yet. (Alternates - *shocker* RB Darren McFadden, ARK & DT Sedrick Ellis, USC)

8. Baltimore QB Brian Brohm Louisville

Could they live without a new QB? Sure. But McNair is done, Boller isn't the answer and with new coach John Harbough in town, Troy Smith may find himself an uncomfortable reminder of an offense that flailed all 2007. Brohm is a smart QB who doesn't make a lot of bad decisions, works hard and has good accuracy, size and a quick release. While I think Troy Smith deserves a shot and they desperately need to shore up an aging defense, Brohm has the feel of a fresh start and I think the Ravens take it. (Alternates OT Sam Baker, USC & DE Derrick Harvey, FLA)

9. Cincinnati RB Darren McFadden, ARK

Now, here's a pick bound to cause trouble. Didn't I start the draft off saying need before greed? Do the Bengals need a RB? On the surface, it would seem not desperately. But let's look closer. Rudi Johnson is a solid though unspectacular RB. He'll get them 1,000 plus yards and probably 10-12 TDs per season. But he lacks that wow factor and the ability to really flourish at a high level. I think the Bengals know this they drafted Kenny Irons for this reason, though the Auburn RBs durability issues came to the fore again with his unfortunate ACL injury in the 2nd preseason game. He should recover, but even so, McFadden will prove way too tempting if he drops this far. Despite far more important needs, the Bengals may look to fire the offense up with the young stud from Arkasas. (Alternates DT Sedrick Ellis, USC & OT Sam Baker, USC)

10. New Orleans DT Sedrick Ellis, USC

They might be tempted by a CB Jason David HELLO! and they'll take one at some point, unless they get it taken care of in Free Agency. But they also have a great need at DT and if Sedrick Ellis is sitting around at 10, he won't go any further, especially after a solid Senior Bowl week, capped with a pretty large game on top of a phenomenal Senior year. He could be taken anywhere before here, but won't drop any further than here. (Alternates CBs Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State & Antoine Cason, Arizona)

11. Buffalo DT Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina

The big debate here will be DT or WR. The Bills both need help up front AND opposite Lee Evans. Roscoe Parrish had a decent season, but he's not pulling enough coverage off of Evans to let the young WR really flourish. On the other hand, the Bills ranked 31st in total yards per game, allowing monster passing games in part because they also can't get sacks. I think it's more likely they go D, although Balmer will either be either a phenom or a bust. Good size, strong, athletic but some question his motor and motivation. I think they roll the dice a bit here, rather than at the WR spot.

12. Denver OT Sam Baker, USC

While they could go towards DT or Safety, the retirement of LT Matt Lepsis opens a bigger need and if Baker is here, I think they jump at a guy who will definitely keep Jay Cutler healthy. It might take him some time to learn the zone blocking scheme, but his speed and strength will make him a good fit once he has the basics down.

13. Carolina OT Jeff Otah, PITT

Where to start? They need DE help, could use a new QB and have two (!) O-Line members heading into Free Agency. The question might be, how much does John Fox feel the heat? If Delhomme comes back healthy, they best make sure he stays that way and the best way to do that is make sure his O-Line stays solid. They can probably bring one guy back, but it will be hard to get both. Best make sure they get one of the better OTs left Otah is raw (only having played since Senior year of High School) but is a beast with upside.

14. Chicago QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky

Grossman is likely not long for Chi-town. Orton is no answer either. While Lovie Smith might soon find himself on a short leash, he's going to have to find the QB answer sooner than later and Free Agency won't be any help. The O-line needs desperate attention as well, but with many top guys already gone, the QB position will get some love. Woodson has some question marks especially post Senior Bowl (though Mike Martz is getting some flak for that too), and some are calling for him to drop out of the first round. It's not there yet. Maybe he will keep tumbling, but has a big arm, mostly good accuracy and a cool demeanor. If he can rebound from his Senior Bowl week lag, he should make an attractive pick for the Bears. If not, Joe Flacco and Chad Henne will be waiting to swoop in.

15. Detroit CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State

Nope, no WR this year, tempting though it might be. And while the Lions need O-line help badly, like the Bears, they might find themselves looking at too far a drop in talent to go that route (might depend on whether Christopher Williams of Vandy has a good Combine or Pro Day). The Secondary needs help also, and DRB proved he has the talent with a Senior Bowl Defensive MVP performance. DRC still needs to put some weight on and get more physical, but the knock that he hasn't played against big-time competition took a hit last week. He's a terrific playmaker with impressive instinct and athleticism, something Detroit needs at the corners.

16. Arizona RB Rashard Mendenhall, ILL

Until I see Stewart and Mendenhall go off at their respective Pro Days and the Combine, it's a toss up. I liked what I saw in Mendenhall at the Rose Bowl, but I saw a lot more of Stewart over here on the Left Coast. In the end, Stewart has some durability concerns and the last impression is often the biggest when Illinois was struggling, even on the ropes, Mendenhall was able to gain yards and against a dominant run D no less. That 17 carry, 155 yd, 1 TD carry showed he's not all hype. Edgerrin James won't be here forever but long enough to teach the youngster a few moves.

17. Minnesota DE Derrick Harvey, Florida

While the Minny D already dominates quite a bit in some areas, they still need some more help pressuring the QB. Harvey is a dangerous pass rusher off the edge and may finally be what the doctor ordered for Minnesota. Now it is true that both WR and depending on who you talk to QB are concerns, but I don't think Childress is as unhappy with Jackson as we think and will likely look to WR later in the draft.

18. Houston RB John Stewart, Oregon

The Texans have put together an up and coming Defense. They could still use a shut down corner, maybe a top flight WR to match with Andre Johnson. But with John Stewart still around, they'll jump at the chance to grab a franchise RB. While the duo of Ron Dayne and Ahman Green were more than capable, they are not the future. Stewart can not only run between the tackles, but get outside as well. There are a few concerns about whether he can carry a full #1 RB NFL load but overall, Stewart is the full package.

19. Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson, CAL

Assuming DMac is in Philly come Training Camp and I think he will be then the Eagles need to get him playmakers not named Westbrook. Jackson is an explosive WR with special teams ability (here is about where Ginn Jr should have been drafted, by the way). He has some work to do to become a true #1 and you could argue the team needs an OT or Safety more but neither of those represent good enough value here, and WR is still a top need. Jackson is the guy here especially since his special teams ability give them a return threat they also sorely need.

20. Tampa Bay - WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma WR

The injury during Senior Bowl week bumped Limas Sweed from this slot, where I had been pretty happy with him. But injury concerns might remind the Bucs of oft-injured WR Michael Clayton. So with that, Malcolm Kelly sneaks up a slot. Despite being a Junior, Kelly is a good route runner, has proven he can bring it in big games. A hard worker, Kelly should fit in well to Coach Gruden's offense.

21. Washington WR Limas Sweed, Texas

You know, I almost didn't go this way, just based on the fact that I cannot see 3 WRs in a row. But the other need here is DE, and while I certainly could see Calais Campbell going here, the Redskins offense has been mired in average with the exception of 2005, Moss has only had one other 1,000 yard + season and he's only had 10 TDs or more once. No other WR on that team is up to par and you can't just throw to Chris Cooley every down. While DE is a need, WR is really a bigger need here. Again, Sweed has some question marks, but 's a big, fearless guy who will go over the middle and make tough catches as well as the big plays. He just may be the big play WR QB Jason Campbell needs to get to the next level.

22. Dallas (from Cleveland) CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy

Dallas is one of the hot Rumor teams people like to throw in place of one of the top 5 so they can draft Darren McFadden. Assuming this does not happen and they keep both this pick and the 29th, I think they look towards the CB position. While WR is a need (especially since Terry Glenn is close to done, if not completely done already), McKelvin is a true playmaker who could be a shut down corner in Dallas for years to come. Add to that the very coveted ability to break one long on special teams and this kid will be too tempting for Jerry Jones to pass up.

23. Pittsburgh OT Gosder Cherius, Boston College

I almost went with Christopher Williams, who I like a little more overall right now. But what the Steelers need is push off the line and Cherilus has a better push off the line then Williams. He's also a hard worker with the smarts to turn that effort in the right direction. He did have a down Senior year, marred also by some off the field issues, but overall should fit in well in Pittsburgh, contributing right away.

24. Tennessee WR Early Doucet, LSU

Some might say even this is early (pun NOT intended) for Doucet, especially in light of his injury during Senior Bowl week. Tennessee, though, is desperate for a good WR. Doucet has the size is perfect for the next level and will give QB Vince Young a big, quality target who can adjust if Young's accuracy wavers. Had some injury issues during the 2007 season, but should be fine. The Titans need some help defensively, but I think they held together enough to look elsewhere for their first round selection.

25. Seattle RB Felix Jones, Arkansas

Shaun Alexander isn't what he used to be and Maurice Morris isn't a featured back. Of course, Jones has some questions as to whether he's a featured back. Jones has the speed to be a threat, and is versatile back who could develop into a good replacement for a declining Alexander. Seattle is another team that could decide to move way up for McFadden, especially if he drops.

26. Jacksonville DE Quentin Groves, Auburn

Groves is wickedly explosive off the ball and is quick to get into the backfield and cause trouble. Is also big enough to bat down passes he can't be in the backfield to disrupt. The Jags need some pass rush help, and Groves should be just the ticket for them. It's possible they go towards a WR with this pick, but they might finally be tired of that song and dance, and shoot for a second or third tier guy later on.

27. San Diego OT Christopher Williams, Vanderbilt

San Diego doesn't appear to need much so far, but there is some shoring up to do on the O-line. Williams has some work to do, but I think will fit in well in the Charger scheme. Another way to go for the Bolts is to pack some more talent on the defense, but in the end, I think they'll work the O side of the ball and Williams will be good value for them here.

28. Dallas WR Mario Manningham, Michigan

Like a fat man at a free buffet, Dallas comes back for a second helping at the Draft table. Assuming again that they haven't traded one or both of the picks, and after locking down a new CB with pick #22, Dallas will likely look to replace the wounded Terry Glenn with a vertical threat like Manningham. With TO's extension picked up for three more years, they will need long term solution to keep the D from double covering him and frankly Crayton doesn't appear to be that guy. Manningham is a little small, but more than makes up for it with his speed and ability to go deep.

29. San Francisco (from Indy) OLB Keith Rivers, USC

One could debate the need for a WR in San Fran, but there's no way they pass on the top OLB prospect if he's sitting here. Rivers is a playmaker with an outstanding motor and while SF's D is improved, it isn't done yet. He'll take it that one step closer, assuming he's still here.

30. Green Bay S Kenny Phillips, Miami (FLA)

There are a lot of things Green Bay doesn't need most of it is on the offensive side of the ball. What they DO need is a solid safety to compliment some all world (but old) corners. Phillips is the top Safety prospect right now, with strong coverage skills, good size and speed and solid set of smarts.

31. New England Patriots FORFIETED

32. New York Giants - OLB Dan Conner, Penn St.

The Giants are in the midst of a heckuva streak, but that doesn't change the fact that they need LB help. Connor is a solid prospect, with good burst and great awareness, who is very aggressive and driven. He'll provide nice depth for a team that has been playing above it's head defensively the last few weeks.

Round 2

33. Miami QB Joe Flacco, Delaware Shocker - Turns out, John Beck isn't the solution.

34. St. Louis CB Aqib Talib, Kansas One of the top needs for St. Louis and the OT pickings are slim.

35. Atlanta DT Pat Sims, Auburn After securing the face of the franchise, time to secure the D.

36. Oakland OT Anthony Collins, Kansas- Hoping to protect their $30 million investment at QB.

37. Kansas City DE Calais Campbell, Miami One for the aging D.

38. NY Jets ILB Jerod Mayo, Tenn Another defensive need filled. Look for value here on out.

39. San Francisco WR James Hardy, Indiana Martz will need more WRs. The 49rs have for a long time.

40. Baltimore CB Patrick Lee, Auburn Injuries to the CB position showed a huge lack of depth.

41. Cincinnati OLB Ali Highsmith, LSU The team needs LB help, no doubt.

42. New Orleans CB Justin King Two words: Jason David. The injury to Ikegwuonu moves King up.

43. Buffalo TE Fred Davis, USC Will draw attention from Evans.

44. Denver DT Marcus Harrison, Arkansas A tough DT with upside who had a good Senior Bowl Week.

45. Carolina QB Chad Henne, Michigan Delhomme might be the answer this year, but not for much longer.

46. Chicago WR Donnie Avery, Houston Count me as someone who thinks Hester will not be THE guy in Chicago when Muhammad retires and if Berrian leaves.

47. Detroit OG Branden Albert, Virginia O-line needs help badly to keep the QB upright.

48. Arizona OLB Xavier Adibi, Virginia Tech Currently one of the top 3 OLBs, will help push the D towards becoming a force.

49. Minnesota CB Tracey Porter, Indiana Good coverage skills that are needed by a pass D that is as bad as the run D is good.

50. Atlanta (from Houston) OT Carl Nicks, Nebraska -A little raw, but aggressive and with good upside.

51. Philadelphia DE Lawrence Jackson, USC A good Senior Bowl could make him attractive to a defense that could be in need of an overhaul.

52. Tampa Bay OT Oniel Cousins, UTEP Might be early, but plenty of upside and TB needs help at Tackle.

53. Washington DE Christopher Ellis, Virgina Tech Will be a great prospect if he can stay healthy and out of trouble.

54. Cleveland DE Phillip Merling, Clemson Cleveland's D needs to improve upon its production at the line Merling should help solidify it.

55. Pittsburgh DE Jason Jones, Eastern Michigan This versatile player (played DT his senior year) can fill any one of several role for the Steelers.

56. Tennessee DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame Should provide run stopping ability, especially if Haynesworth goes bye-bye

57. Seattle TE John Carlson Hass loves to use his TE's in the Red Zone and Pollard didn't fit the bill. Carlson should.

58. Jacksonville CB Antione Cason, Arizona Should help solidify a middling pass D.

59. Miami (from San Diego) DE Darrell Robertson, Georgia Tech Will likely start out situational until he adds some bulk, but should fit into the 3-4 well.

60. Dallas ILB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma Almost went RB, but LB is a bigger need.

61. Indianapolis OLB Bruce Davis, UCLA Could give the Colts another solid defensive weapon.

62. Green Bay CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech The Packers are going to need some new CBs with the current ones getting letters from AARP.

63. New England Patriots OLB Tavares Gooden, Miami A versatile, athletic player who has tons of upside.

64. New York Giants WR Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma St. A big play threat who will be part of the prepwork for Toomer's eventual departure - and perhaps Burress down the road.