April 4, 2008

Round 1

1. Miami - Chris Long, DE, Virginia

This just feels like the right pick. A high character player with NFL bloodlines who can handle both the dirty work of a 3-4 DE, the coverage duties of a 3-4 OLB, and generate pressure from both spots? Maybe Howie's kid won't end up being the best player in this draft, but he's unlikely be anything less than one of the ten best players in this class, and that is the kind of investment that lets you sleep at night when you choose a player #1 overall.

2. St. Louis - Jake Long, OT, Michigan

I hear about Gholston and St. Louis's love for him, but I don't understand how you pass on an NFL ready OT when you have a QB who was having his head examined last year right after he signed a huge deal. It got ugly at OT last year for the Rams, and it could get even uglier without the addition of an instant impact lineman like Long. Orlando Pace might have one good year left, but the Rams can't count on that, and Long would still be an instant improvement at RT. He won't be as dominant as Pace, but he should have the same sort of stabilizing effect on the Rams offense that Joe Thomas did for Cleveland last year.

3. Atlanta - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

The doctors have poked and prodded Dorsey, and unless they found something really wrong with him, he's an easy pick in the top 3. Dorsey has proven everything there is to prove on the field, and he's a passionate football player. This pick will be interesting because it will reveal the first step in new GM Thomas Dimitroff's strategy, and maybe how much input new HC Mike Smith had - and Smith has certainly seen first hand how a force of nature at DT (or two) can key an entire defense in Jacksonville.

4. Oakland - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State

Everything about this pick fits with Crazy Al. Gholston is probably the sickest athlete in the draft, and doesn't it just feel right to picture him in Silver and Black?

5. Kansas City - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

Jake Long is the dream come true for the Chiefs here, and they might be tempted to grab the second best tackle on their board if Jake does not fall to them, but Ryan gives them the opportunity to have a franchise QB for the team to rally around. The organization is cheap, which almost makes Ryan an even better pick. QBs on the open market worth anything are going to demand as much or more than likely the 20mil(+?) guaranteed the #5 pick will get. Derek Anderson got 14.5 mil guaranteed on a 3 year deal. It's hard to see the Chiefs making a splash at QB in free agency at that rate, and they certainly don't have the answer on the roster right now.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

McFadden is a perfect pick for the Tangini regime that finds themselves in a possible make or break year. This team is sorely in need of a gamebreaker on offense, the kind of player who can make individual plays to turn a game. Thomas Jones is going to be 30 this year, and this could be the last year he can be the workhorse. In the meantime, McFadden can be moved all around the offense, and maybe even become the option QB the team hoped Brad Smith would be when they tried him out there last year.

7. New England (from San Francisco) - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

The right answer here is trade down, but I hate projecting trades in mock drafts - it's speculation on top of speculation. On the other hand, the Patriots are among the toughest teams to read, so it's all really guessing. An edge rusher makes seems right through the lens of value and need. I also think Quentin Groves is worth this pick, but there's buzz that Harvey is a fast riser and the Pats are interested.

8. Baltimore - Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

It's probably too early for Brohm, although I have to think the Ravens would be ready to snap up Ryan if he gets past the Chiefs. An OT also makes a lot of sense here, as does a corner. The fact that Ravens have so many glaring needs can not be comforting. McKelvin's name has been coming up a lot in connection with the Ravens and the #8 pick, and his record on the field means he's less risky that DRC even though he doesn't have the same athletic upside.

9. Cincinnati - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

Admittedly, this would be a coup for Cincy. I could see Ellis going as high as #4 to Oakland, or even #3 if Dorsey flunks his medicals. The Bengals D is sorely in need of an all-pro level player who creates externalities that make average players into playmakers. Ellis can be that kind of disruptive force inside, and I would imagine the Bengals war room would rejoice if they get the chance to take him.

10. New Orleans - Keith Rivers, LB, USC

If Vilma is healthy, he and Rivers can bring back some of the "Dome Patrol" memories with their seek and destroy mentality. Another young corner to hold down the fort with Usama Young for the long haul also works here.

11. Buffalo - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

I'm assuming Kelly will actually work out and look decent before the draft - if he can't, then a freefall to the 2nd could be in order. Kelly can help the Bills as a fellow deep threat with Evans, as the WR who will do the dirty work over the middle when the safeties are cheating, with run after catch on quick hitters, and also as one of the best (if not the best) blocking WRs in the run game.

12. Denver - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

Denver would join Cincinnati as big winners in this scenario, getting an ideal player who could have just as easily gone at least five picks earlier. Like St. Louis, Denver is in dire straits at offensive tackle. Clady is the kind of rare athlete for a guy his size who should click in the Broncos zone blocking running scheme.

13. Carolina - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

Williams is not a mean roadgrader yet, but he's coming into his own. His frame and footwork makes the foundation of a shutdown LT, and he's shown the passion in the postseason to merit a pick this high. Carolina's need at LT is glaring and Williams should be able to step in immediately, even if it means a rough first year - he's the kind of smart player who can learn on the job.

14. Chicago - Branden Albert, OG, Virginia

Albert is the latest fast riser in the draft circles, he's even being talked about as an offensive tackle prospect. The Bears have to make an investment on the offensive line, and Albert is much less risky than Jeff Otah, even though he can't turn into a shutdown LT.

15. Detroit - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

Now that Mike Martz is gone, the Lions can get back to building a conventional offense. Mendenhall has the chance to be great, and should at least soften up defenses and absorb a lot of punishment over his career. Brohm also fits here.

16. Arizona - Quentin Groves, OLB/DE, Auburn

The third big winner behind Cincy and Denver, Arizona would be able to line up two of the most dangerous pass rushers in the NFC (Travis LaBoy being the other) even after losing Calvin Pace in free agency. I still think Groves is the best pure pass rusher in this draft.

17. Minnesota - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville

Why not? Maybe the Vikings don't need their QB to be much better than Tarvaris, but there's no way this franchise can feel settled when they look at QB on the depth chart. They have two great weapons in Rice and Berrian at WR, but they need a QB who can harness that playmaking ability, and Jackson looked too erratic and unsure of himself to be that QB last year. The team could also use help on the offensive line and at defensive end, but I think this is just about where Brohm becomes a solid value.

18. Houston - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

Some team is going to get a steal if Stewart falls much further than this. He's the kind of back who can be a true do-everything feature back, and while Kubiak came up with team with a minimalist RB philosophy, a team on the rise like the Texans may not get a chance to get a back of Stewart's caliber again. Offensive tackle also makes perfect sense here.

19. Philadelphia - James Hardy, WR, Indiana

Philly went strong to the hole this offseason to land a difference maker at WR, and they should find themselves with the opportunity to get that player at their first round slot. With a little more strength and better attention to the little things, Hardy can become that true #1 Philly has lacked since the TO era ended (badly).

20. Tampa Bay - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal

Jackson should be developing into a top deep threat just as Joey Galloway is fading, and he will give them the punch they have lacked in the return game.

21. Washington - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

Shawn Springs has been performing admirably, but his career is at an advanced stage, and Carlos Rogers needs a physical partner in crime since the team has LaRon Landry to roam the deep middle. The Skins are also in a prime position to pick off one of the top WRs in the draft.

22. Dallas (from Cleveland) - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

I wouldn't shocked to see DRC crack the top 10 because he's that kind of athlete, but in this scenario, a lot of teams ahead of the Cowboys take more solid bets at need positions, rather than roll the dice on the raw Ohio Valley Conference track star. In terms of floor and ceiling, he's almost the opposite of Chris Long, he could be the best player in this draft, but he could also be a weak corner who as much as liability as he's a big play waiting to happen.

23. Pittsburgh - Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt

At different points over the last few months, it was thought that the Steelers could get Albert or Williams here, now that seems remote. There are so many teams like the Steelers that are needy on the O-Line that they may not even get a chance to take the leftover of the top 5 OL - which in this scenario is Otah. He's the rawest of the group, and has the widest span between his ceiling and his floor. Albert probably fits the best in the Steelers style of football, but beggars can't be choosers. If they don't go heavy on big uglies on the first day, there might be a mutiny in Western Pa.

24. Tennessee - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

I know, I know, we've seen this one coming a mile away. Sweed could be on the fast track to the top 20 if Kelly can't work out or disappoints when he does, but for now, he easily could slide to the Titans. He's a perfect Titans pick - filling a big role, eliminates one of the last excuses for VY - being reunited with the guy who caught the game winner vs tOSU, and he's a better athlete than football player at this point (which seems to be the Titans MO in the draft. Calais Campbell also feels right here.

25. Seattle - Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Thomas is exactly the kind of #1 in the making that can anchor the Seahawks passing game for a long time. Deion Branch has not provided the kind of deep presence Seattle envisioned when they traded their '07 #1 for him, and he's rehabbing a torn ACL to boot. He will work much better as a compliment to a strong physical WR like Thomas who also has the deep speed to get the attention of the safety playing centerfield.

26. Jacksonville - Philip Merling, DE, Clemson

Merling's hernia surgery is Jacksonville's good luck, as they get a player who can be the marquee DE their defense has lacked. Merling has the natural size and athleticism to develop into force on all three downs.

27. San Diego - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State

Maybe Connor goes earlier to a team looking to establish a helmet-cracking presence in their LB corps, but if Paul Posluszny fell to the second, I can't see Connor higher than a late first. Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm are solid, but Connor can give the defense the same kind of attitude in run defense that Merriman gives them when they get after the passer.

28. Dallas - Early Doucet, WR, LSU

Dallas should address WR with one of their first three picks, the only question is whether they like anyone enough to spend a first on them. While Doucet doesn't have the upside or flashy tools of the 4 WRs who went before him in this mock, he will be a heady WR that Romo can count on when the play breaks down, and he'll do the dirty work over the middle. He's definitely ready to play the slot if Terry Glenn's knee says no during training camp, and he would start over Patrick Crayton before long.

29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

The 49ers could opt to improve their short term and long term outlook at WR, with only Old Man Bruce, Bryant Johnson on a trial deal, steady, but unspectacular Arnaz Battle expected to play big roles this year. Jason Hill could pan out, but he's been a mystery to this point. I have them attending to this need with their early 2nd, and instead taking the clear #1 safety on the board to patrol the deep middle while Michael Lewis intimidates in the box.

30. Green Bay - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona

Green Bay has to do something about their aging corners, and a late first should still allow them to pick off a player who can make an immediate impact in nickel and dime packages while being groomed to start down the line.

31. New York Giants - Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

Eventually the Giants have to play a real tackle at LT, and Cherilus could develop into one.

2nd Round

32. Miami - Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma

Lofton will set a physical tone for the new defense in Miami.

33. St. Louis - Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

Mayo can provide bulk and strength at outside linebacker, a major need for St. Louis.

34. Atlanta (from Oakland) - Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware

Flacco could easily be the QB someone reaches for in the first.

35. Kansas City - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami

They are not going to pay Jared Allen enough to keep him next year.

36. New York Jets - Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma

Smith might fit in best at free safety, but he can also be developed into a physical corner opposite Revis.

37. Atlanta - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

DeAngelo Hall's replacement will come a lot cheaper, but will probably get burned just as often.

38. Baltimore - Chad Henne, QB, Michigan

Josh Johnson could also be a target because of the Harbaugh connection.

39. San Francisco - Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

At times Manningham reminds me of Ike Bruce, and a year as his understudy would be valuable.

40. New Orleans - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

I have Balmer about where I think he should go, but he's another candidate for a late 1st reach.

41. Buffalo - Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M

Bennett is the only TE in this draft who could be a force on running and passing downs.

42. Denver - Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina

How can Shanny resist the ultimate speed back?

43. Carolina - DaJuan Morgan, S, NC State

Chris Harris was a pleasant surprise, but the team is far from set at safety.

44. Chicago - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

Jones can provide the gamebreaking ability from the backfield that Benson has so sorely lacked, and at least part of a long term answer at RB.

45. Detroit - Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas

Hopefully for Lions fans this will be George Foster's last year with the team.

46. Cincinnati - Erin Henderson, LB, Maryland

Henderson can be a good playmaker in pursuit and be a long term answer for an LB corps that can't find stability.

47. Minnesota - John Greco, OL, Toledo

The Vikes have one side of their line set, but they need help on the right side - Greco could fit at guard or tackle.

48. Atlanta (from Houston) - Sam Baker, OT, USC

Smith/Dimitroff continue to pile up cornerstones.

49. Philadelphia - Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

Bye Bye Lito

50. Arizona - Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

Arizona gets their heir apparent to Edge in the second.

51. Washington - Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

Washington was kicking the tires on some WRs in FA and mid 2nd is a perfect place to take one. Caldwell provides some size with his speed unlike ARE and Moss.

52. Tampa Bay - Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

Keller will be what the Bucs hoped Alex Smith was when they drafted him.

53. Pittsburgh - Chilo Rachal, OG, USC

Gotta stop the bleeding on the offensive line.

54. Tennessee - Mike Pollak, C, Arizona State

Making plans for post-Mawae, could also get some action at LG this year.

55. Seattle - Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas

Jones and Duckett hold down the fort while Charles learns to be an NFL back.

56. Green Bay (from Cleveland) - Justin King, CB, Penn State

Age of the starters could easily demand a double up at CB for the Packers.

57. Miami (from San Diego) - Fred Davis, TE, USC

Davis becomes the big dependable target over the middle, while Ginn will hopefully occupy the safety.

58. Jacksonville - Pat Sims, DT, Auburn

Sims can shoot gaps while Henderson ties up two blockers.

59. Indianapolis - Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech

Born to play the weakside in a cover 2.

60. Green Bay - Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC

Jackson can learn from KGB while he's still a viable situational pass rusher.

61. Dallas - Red Bryant, DT, Texas A&M

Bryant could become the true 3-4 NT the 'boys have been looking for, giving them a colossal front 3.

62. New England - Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami

Gooden has the size and versatility to play inside in the Pats D.

63. New York Giants - Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana

Porter's gambling style could pay off on a defense that generates a relentless pass rush.

3rd Round

64. Miami - Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt
65. St. Louis - Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech
66. Kansas City - Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
67. Carolina Panthers (from NY Jets) - Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
68. Atlanta - Quentin Demps, S, UTEP
69. New England (from Oakland) - Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
70. Chicago (from San Francisco) - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
71. Jacksonville (from Buffalo, from Baltimore) - King Dunlap, OT, Auburn
72. Buffalo - Darrell Robertson, DE, Georgia Tech
73. Minnesota (from Denver) - Brian Johnston, DE, Gardner-Webb
74. Carolina - Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
75. San Francisco (from Chicago) - Cliff Avril, LB/DE, Purdue
76. Detroit - Thomas DeCoud, S, Cal
77. Cincinnati - Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
78. New Orleans - Antwaun Molden, CB, Eastern Kentucky
79. Houston - Tony Hills, OT, Texas
80. Philadelphia - Andre Fluellen, DT, Florida State
81. Arizona - Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas St
82. Minnesota - John Carlson, TE, Notre Dame
83. Tampa Bay - Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
84. Washington - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
85. Tennessee - Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
86. Seattle - Ezra Butler, LB, Nevada
87. Detroit (from Cleveland) - Tyvon Branch, CB, UConn
88. Pittsburgh - Athyba Rubin, DT, Iowa State
89. Jacksonville - Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
90. Chicago (from San Diego) - Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina
91. Green Bay - John David Booty, QB, USC
92. Dallas - Tashard Choice, RB, Georgia Tech
93. Indianapolis - Oneil Cousins, OL, UTEP
94. New England - Chevis Jackson, CB, LSU
95. New York Giants - Jordan Dizon, LB, Colorado
96. Washington (comp) - Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas St
97. Cincinnati (comp) - Brad Cottam, TE, Tennessee
98. Atlanta (comp) - Philip Wheeler, LB, Georgia Tech
99. Baltimore (comp) - Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech