March 6, 2008

Round 1

1. Miami - Matt Ryan, QB - Boston College

This pick stinks. It's going to make a lot of people right and a lot of people wrong. Fortunately for the wrong ones, the right ones won't be able to crow about "told you so" because it really is a total guess as to who will be the pick here. Does Chris Long make the most sense? Certainly. He's obviously talented, has a head for the game, the pedigree, and the desire be a cornerstone for a franchise. But there is a precedent for Parcells taking a QB this high (Bledsoe). And just like Quinn was sold short as to what he meant to the Notre Dame Flailing Irish, I think Ryan is to the BC Eagles. How many games would BC have won with an average QB? If it were me, even though the franchise spent a 2nd on Beck, I'd like to up my chances of finding a QB to build around by drafting Ryan. Then I increase the chance that one or the other (or even both) guys pan out.

There's a chance that ANY guy taken with the #1 overall could fail. That's why I think the NFL needs to do something about the rookie salary structure - it's too punitive for the teams drafting high. But that's a discussion for another time. But I don't see QBs busting at a higher rate than any other position, so I say the Fins should swing for the fences here.

2. St. Louis - Jake Long, OT - Michigan

Orlando Pace can't play forever, and if they don't help out the o-line, Bulger may follow him into retirement instead of playing piņata. They invested WAY too much into Bulger last season to allow that to happen. Plus, they have one of the games top backs in Jackson. They drafted Alex Barron two years ago and has been developing at RT. With the addition of Long, the Rams have some flexibility as to which guy plays where. The buzz seems to be that Long is better suited to RT. I'm not sure about that. I think he'd be a run-blocking beast on the either side and will hold his own no matter where he plays.

3. Atlanta - Sedrick Ellis, DT - U.S.C.

Ryan is off the board and they acquired Michael Turner in free agency, so there's no need for McFadden. At this point, questions would swirl about someone trading up for him, but it's still too expensive to do so. Grady Jackson was released, leading to first rounder Jamaal Anderson and previous year's addition Jon Abraham to under perform. The addition of Ellis will pay big dividends as the league starts to copy the Giants' success blueprint.

So why Ellis before Dorsey? One thing I've noticed in the short time I've really followed the draft is that when DT's start to fall, they REALLY fall. With Ellis' strong post-season workouts and questions surrounding Dorsey's health, at the #3 spot the Falcons avoid the risk and take a player that may be as good or better.

4. Oakland - Chris Long, DE - Virginia

This would be a difficult choice for Leisure Suit Alan, wouldn't it? Does he take the guy with the flashy skills (McFadden) or the kid of one of the franchises all-time greats? Since they signed Fargas to a big deal and the fact that they paid Tommy Kelly absurd money to move inside, I think they fill the gap at the DE spot with Chris Long. Too bad for Chris and good news for Darren.

5. Kansas City - Ryan Clady, OT - Boise St.

The simple fact is that it was hard to find a worse o-line in the league last year. Clady showed at his pro day that he could be this year's Levi Brown - the tackle that gets picked a bit higher than he should. However, Clady's probably a better prospect than Brown. I'm tempted to put someone like Mike Jenkins or McKelvin here since they released Ty Law, but the position is deep and their type of corner is typically drafted later on. Another consideration is reaching for someone like Ryan Clady or another tackle, but that position is also deep.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden

We'll leave the "character concerns" off the table here and just say it's a blessing and not a curse for the Jets that McFadden is here. Why should they draft him when they already have Thomas Jones. As has been said before - for the same reason the Vikes took AP when they had Taylor. This kind of playmaker added to the Faneca signing will really help the Jets. In the AFC, you want to keep the ball out of your opponent's hands as much as possible, double so when you play the Patriots twice.

7. New England (from San Francisco) - Mike Jenkins, CB - USF

Asante Samuel and the underrated Randall Gay gone in the same off-season? Ouch. Where before this pick may have been viewed a luxury, now it's a necessity. Jenkins is a little more physical than McKelvin but either would be a good selection here.

8. Baltimore - Vernon Gholston, OLB - Ohio St.

Fortunately for them they got Jared Gaither in the supplemental draft since Ogden may retire. That move allows them to use this pick on another area of need - getting to the QB. I agree it's likely that Gholston goes higher. But if he fell here, the Ravens would pounce. McKelvin is an option in light of Rolle and McAlister being on the decline, and deficiencies in the depth really exposed when they were injured.

9. Cincinnati - Glenn Dorsey, DT - L.S.U.

They've tipped their hand quite a bit considering the attempted acquisition of both Shaun Rogers and Dwayne Robertson. Questions that they may switch to the 3-4 were likely answered when they tried to trade Dewayne Robertson, who was NOT a fit for the same scheme for the Jets. Many will say that Dorsey shouldn't fall this far, and I agree. But he has the same injury concerns that Alan Branch had last year and Branch was also talked about as a top 5 pick in the run up to the draft.

10. New Orleans - Leodis McKelvin, CB - Troy

Hopefully signing Randall Gay works out better than signing Jason David did. With Mike McKenzie coming back from an ACL tear, and Usama Young not ready for prime time, bringing in two new guys would be a good move. I know they'd like to improve the d-line as well as the safety spot, but I don't think any guy's worth it at this point. Assuming he stays healthy, the addition of Vilma improves what was possibly the worst linebacking corps in the league last year.

11. Buffalo - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - Tennessee St.

As his Senior Bowl and combine performances show, he's a top flight athlete. The signing of Bryant Johnson is decent enough that they can postpone taking a WR until later. I'd like to see Malcolm Kelly go here too and it would be a wise pick considering that Lee Evans is in the last year of his contract. But in the AFC East, again, you need a lot of defense.

12. Denver - Chris Williams, OT - Vanderbilt

Wow did this team fall apart at the seams quickly or what? Lepsis retires, Walker is cut, Marcus Thomas in trouble. OOOF! I know there's talk Ryan Harris may take Lepsis' spot, but he didn't show enough last year to prove that he's capable.

13. Carolina - Philip Merling, DE - Clemson

Let's be reasonable, they're going to re-sign Peppers. So the RE spot is taken care of. But on the other side, even though he decided to come back, Rucker doesn't have much left. Plus, they traded Kris Jenkins, leaving a hole at tackle.Merling can possibly play either DT or DE like Green Bay did with Cullen Jenkins. Peppers/Merling/Johnson could be the Panthers version of Strahan/Osi/Tuck. An offensive tackle gets strong consideration with this pick.

14. Chicago - Jeff Otah, OT - Pittsburgh

What happened here? This offense completely fell apart and I wouldn't even know where to start if I were the GM. Given that there's ZERO depth along an aging offensive line, Otah is a great choice. Another team that could surprise and take a receiver since, well, they don't appear to have one on the roster. That includes Marty Booker.

15. Detroit - Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Illinois

You know what they say about blind pigs finding mushrooms every now and then? That's how I feel about Millen trading Rogers for Bodden and a third. They knew they were parting ways with Rogers anyway, but to get one of the better young CB's in the game (thus shoring up a MAJOR problem area) and getting an extra pick was a coup. Kevin Jones is a good back when healthy, which is never. He rehabs like a madman but the team just can't count on him. With Duckett s signing in Seattle, at this point in the draft Mendenhall is just too good to pass up.

16. Arizona - Quentin Groves, DE - Auburn

Groves has really rehabbed his stock with his post season workouts after an injury stunted season. Moving to the 3-4, Arizona needs this pass rushing type OLB/DE hybrid and with the 40 time Groves clocked at the combine, he's a perfect fit. With the rumor that Rolle is being switched to FS by the Cardinals, it wouldn't be shocking to see Antoine Cason's name called. Rashard Mendenhall is starting to sweat.

17. Minnesota - Derrick Harvey, DE - Florida

As a fan of the Vikes, I'm encouraged by the seriousness that the team has shown in improving the roster. Signing Madieu Williams and Bernard Berrian took care of two of their bigger needs. But the most obvious need wasn't addressed when Justin Smith signed with the 49ers. If they went into the season right now, they'd be going with three no-names (although Robison has potential), two guys that likely won't play (Erasmus James & Udeze), and another that's one strike away from a long vacation (Edwards). Harvey is the best fit for the pass rushing DE required to make the defense run.

18. Houston - Sam Baker, OT - U.S.C.

The cornerbacks remaining, such as Talib and Cason, just don't seem to fit that well with the man coverage scheme the Texans typically employ. While the signing of Jacques Reeves won't make anyone think the Texans have completely solved their secondary problems, it does free them up to take a player that would be a tremendous boon to their up and coming offense. In my opinion, Baker has been overanalyzed and at this point is a steal at 18. It's hard to ignore that Baker was a four year starter at one of the nation's top programs. Baker can step in and play right away and protect their Schaub investment. Although fans will be disappointed if Stewart isn't picked when he's on the board, this pick is much more sensible.

19. Philadelphia - Limas Sweed, WR - Tennessee

Why the Eagles brass doesn't like taking skill players early is beyond me. This year, their hand is forced. After failing in their play to get Randy Moss, they take one of the two closest NFL-ready receivers available. I'm not a big fan of Sweed, but his time at the combine surprised me and this is the big bodied WR the Eagles need.

20. Tampa Bay - Keith Rivers, LB - U.S.C.

Brooks is ancient and Rivers is a great heir apparent. This team better get young fast. This would also be a decent landing spot for Brian Brohm, but I don't think he's as mobile as Gruden likes a QB to be.

21. Washington - Devin Thomas, WR - Michigan St.

Moss and Randle-El only caught four TD's between the two of them last year. Thomas gives the corps a size advantage that it simply doesn't have with the current group of smurfs. It would be tough to bypass both Kenny Phillips and Reggie Smith as a replacement for Sean Taylor, but asking another Hurricane to fill Taylor's shoes would be unfair.

22. Dallas (from Cleveland) - Antoine Cason, CB - Arizona

He's probably the most NFL ready CB in this class but since he doesn't have the eye-popping speed of the other three, he falls to the team that really covets a player like this. At best, he's an upgrade to Anthony Henry he's a great compliment to the underrated Terrence Newman and at worst he's a nickel starter.

23. Pittsburgh - Branden Albert, OG - Virginia

Has to be an offensive lineman and Albert is the best available at this spot. Nothing revolutionary here as this pick has been forecasted by a lot of people. I agree that it makes a ton of sense.

24. Tennessee - Calais Campbell, DE - Miami (Fl.)

I'm not a big fan, personally, but after losing both LaBoy and Odom, they don't have much choice. A player like Lawrence Jackson might be less risky, but Campbell probably represents a greater upside. Fans would be disappointed there's no WR help taken here.

25. Seattle - Jonathan Stewart, RB - Oregon

I called this one back in October and I stick with it. He should go higher than this based on his numbers, but RB seems to be becoming a "plug and play" position in many NFL circles. Alexander has obviously seen his better days and Stewart is a shoo-in to remain in the Great Northwest. The Duckett signing means nothing.

26. Jacksonville - Lawrence Jackson, DE - U.S.C.

Trading Marcus Stroud to the Bills seems a peculiar move. Perhaps they feel they're going to get just as much from Derek Landri. I'm tempted to put Kentwan Balmer here, but after losing McCray they need someone to play opposite Spicer and Jackson was very productive for USC. I think he's a good all around DE and is kind of a forgotten man compared to the other, more flashy DEs in this draft.

27. San Diego - Kenny Phillips, S - Miami (Fl.)

Another pick that seems to be showing up more and more. He could easily go higher than this, but at the same time, his mediocre season and post-season workouts make him one of the bigger question marks around. It would be difficult for the Chargers to not take a replacement for Roman Oben - Gosder Cherilus would be a fine pick here.

28. Dallas - Felix Jones, RB - Arkansas

Boring pick because everyone else has it. Seems valid though.

29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - Gosder Cherilus, OT - Boston College

Losing Justin Smiley doesn't help an already poor offensive line that saw Larry Allen retire. I originally had Chilo Rachal here, but then read they're going to move Joe Staley to LT. Cherilus would be a great fit at RT.

30. Green Bay - Dan Connor, OLB - Penn St.

Linebacker, like running back, seems to be a position that a lot of teams sleep on. This time, it's to the benefit of the Pack who like the Bills last year get to snap up an excellent prospect from Linebacker U. Rumor is, Connor may be better than Posluszny. If that's the case, a trio of Hawk, Barnett, Connor will be tough on the NFC.

31. New York Giants - Reggie Smith, CB/S - Oklahoma

The blow of losing Gibril Wilson to the Raiders is softened with this selection. Similar to Griffin last year, Smith has the potential to play anywhere in the defensive backfield.

2nd Round

32. Miami - Kentwan Balmer, DT - North Carolina

The Dolphins were the worst team in the league against the run last year.

33. St. Louis - Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma

Bruce is gone and both Holt & Bennett are getting older.

34. Oakland - Carl Nicks, OT - Nebraska

This pick makes so much sense it's impossible that it happens.

35. Kansas City - Aqib Talib, CB - Kansas

Releasing Ty Law necessitates taking this Cover 2 type back.

36. New York Jets - Red Bryant, DT - Texas A&M

Need someone better than Dwayne Robertson to anchor their 3-4.

37. Atlanta - Brian Brohm, QB - Louisville

A major coup as Brohm has first round talent but teams balk at taking a QB.

38. Baltimore - Joe Flacco, QB - Delaware

The fast riser finds a home with a team that's looking at the not-good-enough Troy Smith taking over.

39. San Francisco - Chilo Rachal, G - U.S.C.

The o-line overhaul continues.

40. New Orleans - Trevor Laws, DT - Notre Dame

Another fast riser taken as the Saints continue to move into contention with a defense to match their offense.

41. Buffalo - James Hardy, WR - Indiana

Even with the Bryant Johnson signing, they look to get bigger at WR.

42. Denver - Earl Bennett, WR - Vanderbilt

Cutler is openly campaigning to reunite with his fellow Commodore.

43. Carolina - Anthony Collins, OT - Kansas

Could start right away on the right side.

44. Chicago - Early Doucet, WR - L.S.U.

Losing Berrian and Muhammad really hurt and resigning Booker doesn't solve the problem either.

45. Detroit - Jerod Mayo, ILB - Tennessee

Could be an ideal Tampa 2 type backer.

46. Cincinnati - Dustin Keller, TE - Purdue

Lovie has said he wants more from the TE spot.

47. Minnesota - Chad Henne, QB - Michigan

A solid backup plan if the Tarvaris experiment fails.

48. Atlanta (from Houston) - Tony Hills, OT - Texas

He's coming back from injury, but is a viable option with all the OT's flying off the boards.

49. Philadelphia - Fred Davis, TE - U.S.C.

Yes they franchised A.J. Smith, but he can't seem to stay healthy.

50. Arizona - Tracy Porter, CB - Indiana

Antrel Rolle has been moved to FS so there's a corner spot open.

51. Washington - Brandon Flowers, DB - Virginia Tech

No value left at the DE spot means they help the d-backs get younger.

52. Tampa Bay - Pat Sims, DT - Auburn

Team talked to him at the combine and the interior d-line is thin.

53. Pittsburgh - Dre Moore, DT - Maryland

Perfect fit for the 3-4 and helps the Steelers d-line get tougher.

54. Tennessee - DeSean Jackson, WR - California

Drops in the draft due to size issues, but is just the electric playmaker the offense needs.

55. Seattle - Martellus Bennett, TE - Texas A&M

A decent TE helps make their offense go.

56. Green Bay - Charles Godfrey, CB - Iowa

A physical DB that really fits their scheme well.

57. Miami (from San Diego) - Ahtyba Rubin, DT - Iowa St.

The heir apparent to old Jason Ferguson at NT.

58. Jacksonville - Andre Caldwell, WR - Florida

Porter + Williamson = less than you started with, so this is the burner they're looking for.

59. Indianapolis - Chris Johnson, RB - E.C.U.

The home run threat to compliment Addai.

60. Green Bay - Brad Cottam, TE - Tennessee

Fast riser coming back from injury for a team that loves the TE spot.

61. Dallas - Justin King, CB - Penn. St.

Fans want two CBs in the first two rounds for good reason.

62. New England - Jonathan Goff, ILB - Vanderbilt

Inject some youth to learn before all the LBs retire at once.

63. New York Giants - Jordy Nelson, WR - Kansas St.

Bigger, faster guy that the Giants like (other than Sinorice Moss, that is).

3rd Round

64. Miami - Cliff Avril, OLB - Purdue
65. St. Louis - Darrell Robertson, DE - Georgia Tech
66. Kansas City - Mario Manningham, WR - Michigan
67. Carolina Panthers (from NY Jets) - Ray Rice, RB - Rutgers
68. Atlanta - Xavier Adibi, LB - Virginia Tech
69. New England (from Oakland) - Heath Benedict, OT - Newberry
70. San Francisco - Josh Barrett, S - Arizona St.
71. Jacksonville (from Buffalo, from Baltimore) - DeMario Pressley, DT - NC STate
72. Buffalo - Martin Rucker, TE - Missouri
73. Minnesota (from Denver) - DaJuan Morgan, S - North Carolina State
74. Carolina - Thomas DeCloud, S - California
75. Chicago - Jamaal Charles, RB - Texas
76. Detroit - Curtis Lofton, LB - Okalhoma
77. Cincinnati - Jason Jones, DE - Eastern Michigan
78. New Orleans - Erin Henderson, LB - Maryland
79. Houston - Kevin Smith, RB - U.C.F.
80. Philadelphia - Oneil Cousins, OT - Texas - El Paso
81. Arizona - Matt Forte, RB - Tulane
82. Minnesota - Jermichael Finley, TE - Texas
83. Tampa Bay - Lavelle Hawkins, WR - California
84. Washington - Roy Schuening, OG - Oregon State
85. Tennessee - Terrell Thomas, CB - U.S.C.
86. Seattle - Mike McGlynn, OG - Pittsburgh
87. Detroit - Eric Young, OG/OT - Tennessee
88. Pittsburgh - Donnie Avery, WR - Houston
89. Jacksonville - Tavares Gooden, LB - Miami (Fl.)
90. Chicago (from San Diego) - Andre Woodson, QB - Kentucky
91. Green Bay - Patrick Lee, CB - Auburn
92. Dallas - D.J. Hall, WR - Alabama
93. Indianapolis - Eddie Royal, WR - Virginia Tech
94. New England - Chevis Jackson, CB - L.S.U.
95. New York Giants - John Greco, OT - Toledo