January 16, 2007

Round 1

1. Miami - Chris Long, DE - Virginia
Yes. I know they should "trade down for more picks". But I can't see any teams in the top ten giving up much to move into the #1 spot. So, the choice is either of the Long's or Dorsey. Dorsey is the default pick, but I think it would be tough to spend #1 overall money on a DT. And it seems every year that a DT is talked about in the top 5 but then falters. Chris Long is a stud and will be a cornerstone for the 'Fins no matter if they run the 3-4 and 4-3.

2. St. Louis - Jake Long, OT - Michigan
Jake has been overanalyzed. He's near the same level as Joe Thomas and that pick worked out tremendously for the Browns. Orlando Pace can't stay healthy and the Rams have to do something to protect their investment in Bulger and Jackson. The combo of Long and Barron will go a long ways in improving the Rams offense.

3. Atlanta - Glenn Dorsey, DT - LSU
Why not a QB? Because none of them are good enough to go at the #3 spot. And there are rumors that Ryan said he didn't want to play for the Falcons. Dorsey will do for Atlanta what Okoye did for Houston - get them more out of their previous year's #1 pick.

4. Oakland - Sedrick Ellis, DT - USC
A lot of people like him MORE than Dorsey. With Sapp retiring and the Raiders on the verge of having a dominant defense this seems like a no-brainer, even with McFadden on the board. If they can get more out of their d-line, they could have a top 10 defense next year. And in the AFC West, you have to stop the run. 56 tackles/12.5 for loss, 8.5 sacks, 6 deflections, 2 fumble recoveries and 1 forced = STUD.

5. Kansas City - Michael Oher, OT - Ole Miss
It's obvious that what was a strength is now a weakness for the Chiefs. Much like Levi Brown (who actually turned out pretty well for the Cards), Oher gets to move up the boards to a team that has an extreme need at the position. Oher is quite a story. I hope he's up for it mentally because he sure appears to be so physically.

6. New York Jets - Darren McFadden, RB - Arkansas
The second biggest question of the draft (who does Miami take being number one) is "where does DMac go?" Much like the Vikings with Chester Taylor, the Jets have an above average back in Thomas Jones. But also like the Vikings, rolling with Jones meant that there were yards left on the table. I personally don't believe McFadden is in AP's league, but he's still an electric player that could really help whoever ends up playing QB for the Jets.

7. New England - Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB - Ohio St.
I know that the Pats don't take linebackers early. And I know that they don't take "insert position here" either. But their backers are getting up there in age and, really, what DO they need? Gholston is a physical specimen and a terrific pass rusher.

8. Baltimore - Matt Ryan, QB - Boston College
McNair is done. Boller hasn't shown anything and at this stage he isn't likely to. Ryan has a gunslinger mentality and can get reckless with the ball, but his leadership skills seem highly developed. Guys love playing with him and BC wouldn't have gotten far without him. A new regime would likely want to start fresh at the position and I think Ryan, for all his question marks, seems like the QB that can win the soonest and has great upside.

9. Cincinnati - Calais Campbell, DE - Miami
I'm not a fan of Campbell, but I seem to be in the minority. After a monstrous sophomore year, he was very quiet this year. Whether or not that's due to the talent around him is a good question. He's worth the risk to the poor Bengals defense if he can play like he did a year ago.

10. New Orleans - Mike Jenkins, CB - USF
Everyone knows about the struggles of Jason David this year. They could look for a linebacker at this spot (either Dan Connor or Keith Rivers would be a good choice), but Jenkins is a complete corner and benefits from Malcolm Jenkins' decision to stay in school.

11. Buffalo - Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma
A bit high for Kelly (or any of the WRs in this class for that matter), but he won't be there in the 2nd and he's an upgrade over the other #2 WRs on the roster for sure.

12. Denver - Kenny Phillips, S - Miami
Where to start? The Broncos defense has holes all over the place. Since the safety spot is a both a glaring weakness and in limited supply, Denver would be wise to go this direction first. Seems better to me to go S/LB than LB/S with their first two picks. Their d-line still needs help, but hopefully for them Moss can come back from injury and contribute and Dumerville can continue to develop.

13. Carolina - Sam Baker, OT - USC
Injury concerns abound, but there's no disputing that Baker started for a powerhouse program for four years. He should fit well with the ZBS scheme in Carolina.

14. Chicago - Ryan Clady, OT - Boise St.
This season shows what happens when a team gets old fast. Their o-line is in line for major turnover in the next couple years.

15. Detroit - Antoine Cason, CB - Arizona
Too bad the Lions didn't take my advice (no, they didn't even ASK!) and reach for Patrick Willis at #2 last year. This year, the needs on defense are still there with corner being the foremost concern. Cason fits the scheme nicely.

16. Arizona - Quentin Groves, DE - Aubrun
I expect that the Cards will continue trending toward the 3-4 and Groves has just the right size and explosiveness to fit the pass rushing OLB that they need.

17. Minnesota - Derrick Harvey, DE - Florida
After all the draft picks - Udeze, James, Robison, Edwards - the Vikings STILL don't have a pass rush. Harvey isn't my favorite player, but probably the best option at this point for the position. I'd prefer DeSean Jackson but I doubt the Vikes go WR in the first.

18. Houston - Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Illinois
Mendenhall or Stewart? Coin flip goes Mendenhall. He just seems more like the "one cut" style of back that the Texans run.

19. Philadelphia - Reggie Smith, DB - Oklahoma
The safety position is thin in talent this year, so while Smith played primarily corner for the Sooners, the Eagles will look to use him as a nickle back or safety.

20. Tampa Bay - Keith Rivers, OLB - USC
Derrick Brooks can't play forever. Returning to school was a good move for Rivers and he could go much higher than this.

21. Washington - Kentwan Balmer, DT - UNC
They got better play from the position as the year progressed, but depth would be helpful especially in a division that runs the ball as much as the NFC East does.

22. Dallas - Aqib Talib - CB, Kansas
Really made a name for himself this year and came through with a stellar bowl performance. Can contribute on special teams.

23. Pittsburgh - Jeff Otah, OT - Pitt
The Steelers offensive line will likely implode this offseason. Otah has played well, if a bit up and down, and could really improve the LT spot.

24. Tennessee - Adarius Bowman, WR - Oklahoma St.
They cannot continue with the lack of talent at the WR spot. Young isn't the greatest passer, but his WR corps isn't doing him any favors either. Bowman is a big, productive talent that can really improve his stock if he posts a decent 40 time at the combine.

25. Seattle - Jonathan Stewart, RB - Oregon
The en vogue pick that really does make a lot of sense. Alexander seems to be wearing down and Stewart fits the role perfectly.

26. New York Giants - Dan Connor, OLB - Penn St.
Converting DE's to LB's is never a good sign. Connor might be better than Posluszny, who was looking terrific until he got hurt. I'm amazed at how much the Giants LB corps has overachieved the second half of the year, though.

27. Jacksonville - DeSean Jackson, WR - California
Another first round WR for the Jags? So be it since the guys they've drafted haven't exactly panned out, and the ones playing decently aren't exactly explosive. Jackson is just the type of guy they need to open up the offense vertically and give Drew and Taylor better opportunities.

28. San Diego - Gosder Cherilus, OT - Boston College
Cherilus played very well at RT his first three years but struggled a bit this year playing on the left side. With McNeill playing LT, Cherilus will be a major upgrade to Olivea on the right.

29. Dallas - Leodis McKelvin, CB - Troy
McKelvin has really moved up. Maybe not this far, but he would be an excellent contributor to not only the d-backfield, but special teams as well.

30. San Francisco - Felix Jones, RB - Arkansas
San Francisco's offense ranks dead last in several offensive categories. Yes, they have Frank Gore, but after a down year and the emergence of the two back system in the NFL, Jones is a great compliment to Gore.

31. Green Bay - Tracy Porter, CB - Indiana
Porter played very well and has improved his stock tremendously this year. He is a good understudy for the aging Harris and Woodson.

Round 2

2.01. Miami - Brian Brohm, QB - Louisville
2.02. St. Louis - Ali Highsmith, OLB - LSU
2.03. Oakland - Chris Williams, OT - Vanderbilt
2.04. Kansas City - Andre Woodson, QB - Kentucky
2.05. Atlanta - Philip Wheeler, OLB - Georgia Tech
2.06. New York Jets - Frank Okam, DT - Texas
2.07. Baltimore - Early Doucet, WR - LSU
2.08. San Francisco - Mario Manningham, WR - Michigan
2.09. New Orleans - Erin Henderson, LB - Maryland
2.10. Buffalo - Fred Davis, TE - USC
2.11. Denver - Red Bryant, DT - Texas A&M
2.12. Carolina - Lawrence Jackson, DE - USC
2.13. Chicago - Harry Douglas, WR - Louisville
2.14. Detroit - Chris Ellis, DE - Virginia Tech
2.15. Cincinnati - Tavares Gooden, OLB - Miami (FL)
2.16. Minnesota - Earl Bennett, WR - Vanderbilt
2.17. Atlanta - Ray Rice, RB - Rutgers
2.18. Philadelphia - Martellus Bennett, TE - Texas A&M
2.19. Arizona - Jamaal Charles, RB - Texas
2.20. Washington - D.J. Hall, WR - Alabama
2.21. Tampa Bay - DeMario Pressley, DT - NCSt.
2.22. Seattle - John Carlson, TE - Notre Dame
2.23. Pittsburgh - Roy Schuening, OG - Oregon St.
2.24. Tennessee - Chevis Jackson, CB - LSU
2.25. New York Giants - Charles Godfrey, CB - Iowa
2.26. Cleveland - Dre Moore, DE - Maryland
2.27. Jacksonville - Phillip Merling, DE - Clemson
2.28. Miami - Limas Sweed, WR - Texas
2.29. Indianapolis - Xavier Adibi, OLB - Virginia Tech
2.30. Dallas - Chris Johnson, RB - ECU
2.31. Green Bay - Tony Hills, OT - Texas
2.32. New England - Jonathan Goff, ILB - Vanderbilt