Breaking Down the Tape
Reviewing Top Tier RBs Eligible for the 2008 NFL Draft

I'd like to break down the tape of one top tier running back per week each of the next 12 weeks. I'll do this by watching one of their games and commenting on their play in that game, including fakes and blocking assignments, as well as their NFL prospects. My schedule for this feature is as follows:

9/1 - James Davis, Clemson vs. Florida State
9/8 - Steve Slaton, West Virginia vs. Marshall
9/15 - Jonathan Stewart, Oregon vs. Fresno State
9/22 - Mike Hart, Michigan vs. Penn State
9/27 - Ian Johnson, Boise State vs. Southern Mississippi
10/6 - Jamaal Charles, Texas vs. Oklahoma
10/13 - Darren McFadden, Arkansas vs. Auburn
10/20 - Felix Jones, Arkansas vs. Mississippi
10/27 - Ray Rice, Rutgers vs. West Virginia
11/3 - Ryan Torain, Arizona State vs. Oregon
11/10 - Yvenson Bernard, Oregon State vs. Washington
11/17 - Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina

Obviously all of the defenses these players play will not be equal, but I still think we can get a good approximation of the skill sets that each of these running backs will bring to the NFL. This list also could be affected by injuries to the players and I will try to juggle it to fit everyone in if that occurs.

James Davis - Jr. - Clemson (5'11" 208)
Jersey:#1
Wt: 208
Age on 9/1/2008: 22.68
My Pre-Season Rank: #6
My Current Rank: #6

Tony Nowak's Take:
Burst on the scene as a true freshman in 2005 and quickly took over the starting role from Reggie Merriweather, rushing for almost 1K despite starting just half their games. He started every game in 2006 and improved on his production, but the arrival of blue chip RB recruit C.J. Spiller meant Davis still shared the ball. Davis staked his claim to remain RB1a will 100 yards on just six carries in their spring game, including a 65-yard TD.

While he lacks the home run speed of backfield partner Spiller, he has decent speed. Davis hits the hole with authority and breaks arm tackles well, but runs far too upright for the next level. He is a cut-and-go runner, a good fit for a zone blocking scheme, but may not have the quickness to get the corner in the NFL. Along with the fact he faces the perfect storm building against his draft value, a stacked RB class and a blue chip recruit taking away touches, I'd a bit more conservative on his outlook despite his seemingly inevitable decision to declare early. 2008 Running Back Draft Class

Stats (from ESPN):

Breaking Down the Tape: James Davis, Clemson vs. Florida State, 9/1/2007

1st Play - 1st Quarter - 13:14 - Fake Run
Davis is part of a fake and runs to the outside left while the throw goes short right. Decent fake that looks like it fooled some defenders for a second or two. Accepted Defensive Penalty, play doesn't count.

2nd Play - 1st Quarter - 13:08 - Run Left
Davis takes the direct snap while the QB is out wide, fakes to the other RB (CJ Spiller) and runs off left guard. Nice run through some traffic, although his pad level is too high. Makes a quick breakdown move that doesn't do much and then falls forward nicely to get some extra yards as he's hit low by a defender.

3rd Play - 1st Quarter - 12:03 - Fake Run
Handoff faked to Davis left and pass goes in the right flat. No time for him to do much with the fake because the defender is right there, but he does a decent job getting in the defenders way.

4th Play - 1st Quarter - 11:24 - Pass Route
Davis release into the left flat on a pass route, QB runs right.

5th Play - 1st Quarter - 9:11 - Pass Route
Davis runs a short down and out to the left side of the field. Throw is deep middle.

6th Play - 1st Quarter - 7:20 - Fake Run
Fake to Davis right and end around to the WR left. Average fake and turns around to watch a little bit too soon.

7th Play - 1st Quarter - 6:52 - Block Right
On a sweep right, Davis is the lead blocker and makes a nice cut block on the Freshmen All-American Rover, Myron Rolle, taking him out of the play. Very nice job.

8th Play - 1st Quarter - 6:44 - Run Left
Pitch left to Davis, decent speed to the corner although not fantastic; does a nice job reading the edge kick out block and ducking back inside it to make sure he gets the first down. Good job keeping his legs churning as he's tackled and picking up a couple of extra yards as defenders ride his back.

9th Play - 1st Quarter - 6:15 - Fake Left
Davis fakes left, pass deep middle for a TD. Average fake, not selling it as much as he should.

10th Play - 1st Quarter - 5:05 - Run Right - TD
Nice job sliding off traffic in the backfield and then a good stop to let another defender go by; good balance and then great vision as he cuts back to the middle of the field without gearing down too much; faked out defender (Rolle) grabs and stretches his jersey, but Davis runs through it showing good strength and forward lean; shows nice vision again as he breaks into the 3rd level to make two quick cutbacks to the left to find the endzone; gearing down a little too much; overall a very nice run.

11th Play - 1st Quarter - 2:08 - Run Middle
Direct snap to Spiller (RB) and he hands to Davis. Lots of traffic in the backfield and Davis falls forward for a yard after making a nice quick move to avoid some traffic.

12th Play - 1st Quarter - 0:18 - Run Middle
Nice sidestep to avoid traffic in the backfield; pad level still a little high in traffic; gets about 4 yards but doesn't show good vision here as he runs into a pile of players; shows that he is primarily a downhill runner here.

13th Play - 2nd Quarter - 15:00 - Run Middle
Gets the handoff and head to the left but a defender runs free in the backfield. Does a pretty good job avoiding the defender by cutting upfield, but loses his balance after the move and falls down for no gain.

14th Play - 2nd Quarter - 14:22 - Run Left
Takes the handoff and runs left parallel to the line trying to get to the corner; beats 2 defenders there but does a strange sort of stutter step when he turns it upfield which slows him down too much; still manages to fall forward when tackled and gets a couple of yards.

15th Play - 2nd Quarter - 8:02 - Run Middle
Runs middle/right on inside handoff; does a nice job threading his way through the traffic to pick up 12-13 yards, but seems to take too many steps to get there; runs a little too upright, but still gets a good forward push when he meets a defender to fall forward and get several extra yards.

16th Play - 2nd Quarter - 6:45 - Block Right
Davis starts on the left and goes across in front of the QB and pass blocks a defender; does a pretty decent job of it although the defender seemed to over run the QB anyway.

17th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:59 - Run Middle
Takes the handoff and goes straight up a hole in the middle; does a very good job bouncing off a blocker and continuing on without gearing down too much; makes a decent break down move, but really ends up gearing down too much and not really making the correct move; gets hit from behind and loses the ball as he goes down, but he's called down by contact.

18th Play - 2nd Quarter - 3:28 - Run Right
Goes right on an inside handoff; tries to get to the corner, but he's not fast enough to get there and a defender makes a nice move to get upfield; gears down a lot to make a cut up field and does get the first down and couple of extra yards, but it's not smooth; he does a good job of gaining yards after initial contact, though.

19th Play - 2nd Quarter - 2:57 - Fake Left
Fake left to Davis; bad fake, either he or the QB missed their line and they end up almost colliding, ruining the fake; handoff right to the WR, gets taken down in the backfield.

20th Play - 2nd Quarter - 1:28 - Pass Route
Runs to the right flat on a pass route; pass goes downfield.

21st Play - 3rd Quarter - 14:55 - Run Middle
Davis goes up the middle/right for a couple of yards; not much there, but does a nice job again staying forward and dragging a DLineman for a yard or two.

22nd Play - 3rd Quarter - 14:17 - Pass Route
Runs to the right flat; pass goes to the left flat.

23rd Play - 3rd Quarter - 13:08 - Run Middle
Quick handoff and run up the middle; not much there and he doesn't get anything.

24th Play - 3rd Quarter - 12:24 - Block Middle
Stays in the backfield and try to help pass rush; doesn't get a defender himself, but tries to find a lineman to help; not very successful and the QB gets sacked.

25th Play - 3rd Quarter - 11:42 - Pass Route
Runs a down and out pass route to the left middle; QB scrambles and heads downfield; Davis looks for a man to block and gest in the way of a defender, but doesn't really block him; nice gain by the QB.

26th Play - 3rd Quarter - 11:20 - Run Right
Davis takes a pitch and runs outside to the right; does a nice job slightly cutting in front of an upfield defender; sees defenders closing in, puts his head down and gets a nice gain.

27th Play - 3rd Quarter - 10:41 - Run Middle
Takes a handoff and runs up the left middle; does a nice job cutting it upfield when a defender goes upfield, without gearing down too much; makes a nice stutterstep to avoid a tackle and then does an excellent job running in space and keeping his balance as defenders and blockers are around him on both sides; seems to always fall or even jump forward at the end of the run to gain a little extra yardage; showed very good wiggle here, but again was too upright.

28th Play - 3rd Quarter - 4:39 - Run Middle
Straight, hard run up the middle; gets to the line fast here; does a real nice job hitting a defender as he goes through the line and keeping his forward momentum to get a couple of extra yards when he falls.

29th Play - 3rd Quarter - 4:03 - Run Middle - Penalty
Davis in direct snap position, QB set up wide right; takes snap and fakes to Spiller before heading left; Cuts upfield, but gears down a little too much; nice big hole there; gets hit on the side of his knees and loses balance, but again falls forward and has the momentum to get 2-3 extra yards; penalty negates it.

30th Play - 3rd Quarter - 3:43 - Pass Route
Runs a pass route to the short right, pass goes to the left flat.

And that's it as my Tivo cuts off with 10 minutes left in the 4th. Grrrrrr. Lesson learned.

Final Game Stats:
Davis had 18 carries for 102 yards and 1 TD. That's a 5.7 per carry average with a long run of 29 yards. He also had one catch for 3 yards.

Play Chart Breakdown:
30 Total Plays (again, through 10 minutes left in the game)
15 Runs (only missed 3)
5 Fakes
6 Pass Routes
3 Blocking Plays
1 Penalty that wiped out a nice run

James Davis Summary:
Davis is a very good running back with good speed, nice wiggle and excellent determination. On the downside, he isn't really fast enough to turn the corner and he isn't quick laterally, gearing down too much to cut. He also runs too upright, but has the wiggle to avoid big hits on the collegiate level. He does a real nice job leaning forward and getting extra yards after contact by falling or even diving forward.

I think Davis is a good running back who has a chance to make it at the NFL level, although I think he needs a good one cut, or zone block, scheme to really succeed. He'll also need to lower his pad level, work on his pass catching, and as with every RB, work on blocking and blitz pickup.

Ceiling: Deuce McAllister with less bulk and strength
Floor: Antonio Pittman with less speed but more wiggle and determination
Rating System: Small Back B if drafted in the first two rounds, Small Back C if drafted before pick 109